Sunday, 23 August 2015

Early Pre-Race Trading Musings


I'm sitting here scratching my head (and occasionally my balls) after another day of trying to work out the complexities of the pre-race trading game and a number of issues keep popping up in my noggin.




So what better way to spend a Sunday evening than listing them all down on here so that when I become the biggest thing since sliced bread in terms of pre-race trading I can look back and say 'that's where it all started'.


So below is the contents of my brain at this very point in time:

  • how important is the Betfair graph? It's not time sensitive and surely most of the left hand side of the graph can be ignored as pretty much fuck all gets traded between when the markets open and maybe 5 minutes before the off?  

  • so if the BF graph is wank then is there a graph that can actually help? I currently have a 180 second streaming chart of the LTP at the bottom of my setup and I think that this provides more help in trying to determine the support or resistance for any selection?

  • what happens in those races where it seems that no fucker has an idea of what is going on and the prices are flying all over the shop in seemingly random directions?




  • is it actually slightly easier to trade with bigger stakes as you have more influence over the market if you are playing with hundreds instead of fivers? 

  • is it really THAT important to try and identify which way the market is about to move? I pretty much think that no fucker can be absolutely certain, and if this is the case surely I should be concentrating on where to best place my entry points and more importantly what the fuck I'm going to do once my first positions have been taken?

  • how much can I learn from the various videos scattered about all over the internet (mostly on YouTube obviously)? I ask this as in many of the vids that I have seen the commentator often seems to be hanging onto trades whilst exclaiming 'oh come on pls', 'with a bit of luck I'll get this' and various other prayers and mantras. OK I know that this is human nature and that some of these guys are posting good profits but sometimes when I watch these vids I'm also on the edge of my seat willing the price to go in the right direction!  

  • do I fancy another cup of tea or do I fancy watching some porn? (well I did say the 'entire' contents of my brain!)


I seem to remember that I did a similar exercise a while back on here so I'll trawl back and see if I can find the post and see if I was wafffling about the same shit.


24/08

+£78.81. We only had the four meetings today and although my total was nothing special I actually felt like I had a great day.




I was able to concentrate a bit more on my pre-race trading and put into practice some of the techniques that I picked-up from watching some of Caans videos. I really felt as if I had made a big step forward in understanding the markets and therefore making good decisions. There's no doubt that I still have a long way to go and will run across scenarios where I think 'what the fuck happened there!' but as long as I keep on learning without doing my bollox I'll be happy!


I decided to record the 15:00 @ Brighton today and post it on here so that I can look back in the future and realise what a novice I was! It might be good, it might be bad but will probably be very ugly. Here it is .....





Well I couldn't leave it there so I also recorded the 15:30 @ Brighton ...





And also the 16:30 @ Brighton ...





Might as well have the 18:25 @ Leicester as well ...





25/08

+£42.89. I didn't trade that many races today but nonetheless was chugging away until I knocked it all out in the 19:00 @ Ballinrobe.





It's slightly annoying when that happens! You start to think how you could have spent that £100 down on the coast (ideally beers and burgers) and the fact that you've been sitting there all day just gradually chipping away. A few expletives were uttered but then I managed to nick some back in the last which eased my pain  slightly.


15:00 @ Chepstow ... close but no cigar ...





After posting my musings (see above) I received this reply from RFSports Trading on Twitter:


Betfair graphs - Caan uses Geeks Toy which has a function which allows all runners to be available on the same graph (Market Overview). You can see steamers and drifters together on the same graph. It updates probably every few secs so 180 secs is too long I'd say.

Chaotic markets - I think it boils down to the quality of the race which is likely to drive the level of liquidity. Better quality of racing and more liquidity provides smoother markets and so Brighton on a Monday afternoon is going to be pretty random I'd say. Have you got Caans pre race trading guide?

Big stakes - yes I think Monday Brighton race might get manipulated by a big player.

Market prediction - if you think about maximising profits and minimising losses it almost doesn't matter if you guess up or down in terms of price prediction. However if you have some reasoning i.e. the fav has drifted then maybe the another horse is shortening then this might help predicting the movement correctly.

Better quality races - I think the prices tend to be smoother and move in the same direction for longer.

Tea or porn - why not both?

I'd be happy to discuss any trading ideas just pm me. Re-read Caans pre race trading guide it has taken me a while to understand why race quality matters. Peter at Bet Angel always bangs on about quality of the race also.


It's always great to receive helpful advice from other traders and when I get the chance I will be adding to these points.



28/08

+£141.06. Just back from a cracking 2 days down on the coast with all of the family. The weather was typical English summertime ... gales, rain, hail with a few sunny spells here and there!

I had already purchased a windbreak and 2 beach shelters and I'd be fucked if I was going to let a little inclement weather spoil our fun. We set about smashing the windbreak firmly into the sand but unfortunately once we had it secure it was only about 2 foot high! Me and my youngest boy then managed to get one of my shelters erected and we both got in and zipped ourselves inside and had a bottle of Hoegaarden from my coolbox. So there we were, the waves crashing, the wind blowing, the rain falling and me and my boy zipped up in a shelter! We ended up as the only family on the beach, sharing 2 tents and a bottle of wine.

I did my child minding duties in the evening and took all of the grandkids along the promenade while the reamainder of my party had a munch in the local curry house. Once the grandkids had all crashed-out I began my assualt on the Hoegaarden and one by one my family members fell by the wayside and headed back to the Travelodge until I was left to fly the flag. Unfortunately I think that I may have over indulged! I probably got back at around 03:00 and felt like a sack of shite the following morning. I managed to get my ass out of bed and decided that a long stroll along the windswept coast would blow away the cobwebs. Well after about an hour of walking I felt like death ..... so I crawled back to the Travelodge and stayed in bed all day!

The remainder of the break was alcohol free and we all had a good time ... roll on the next one!

I couldn't wait to get back and crack on with the pre-race training but to be honest by about 15:00 I was feeeling pretty tired so I just concentrated on the in-running and managed to win back some of the cash that I had spunked down on the coast.
 



 














10 comments:

  1. Hi Dave,
    Just wondered why you want to master pre-race trading, when you seem to be doing ok IR.

    I dont trade but always something i have considered and IR would be the way forward for me. Like you say it seems no one seems to know which way the pre market is going(except Caen). I have watched all the trading videos and even if i could get my head round it, i think i would get bored pretty quick .

    Notice you play a fair bit in the Place market, i would be interested in your analysis of a typical trade in that market. Appreciate you may not want to post it on here.

    Enjoy the Blog and can lift my monday morning spirits.

    All the best

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi SB.

      I've always been intrigued by the pre-race side of things and if it means that I can win more cash or at least give myself he option of going down that route then I consider it time well spent.

      As for the place market, well I normally either back or lay a selection, usually in the latter half of races if I believe that they will/will not get placed. I'm not really trading as such but I do sometimes opt to take a red or green if I change my mind lol.

      Cheers - Dave.

      Delete
  2. Thanks for the reply Dave and i look forward to your future success and postings. Aim to start myself in the next couple of months, i am a bit of a stats man and plan to use several sites i.e Flatstats.inform etc which will hopefully create the edge i require. I may even create a blog to post my ups and downs and give me some sort of discipline that i know will be crucial to succeed.

    Cheers
    Sid

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hello dave
    Im intrigued in what Strategies do you use? Thanks

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