Sunday, 29 December 2013

Getting Ready for 2014 and Beyond


29/12

11:44 and because I played the dogs last night I haven't been able to update today's horse notes (should have got up early and done them this morning really).

I suppose that it's only natural at this stage to always have a figure in mind of how much I expect out of the day, and because it's Sunday today I have the figure of £40-£50 in my head, although there are five meetings today. This is a prime example that the lessons learnt of trading five years in the exchange, i.e. the fact that Sunday's would usually produce poorer results because of the general lack of racing, have become embedded in my subconcious. Anyway, as per yesterday I'll put that stupid thought in the bin and concentrate on trading calmly and steadily.

How strange ... my grandkids have Pokemon on the TV as I was typing the above and all of a sudden the top dude Pokemon says 'You can't learn unless you take a few risks' .... how apt!

State of mind: cautiously optimistic.

+£70.65. Pleased with another day of steady trading, mostly in the win market.





30/12

+£48.64. I had loads to do today so didn't really get involved that much and to be honest wasn't really bothered. We're going away to the coast for a couple of days and to be honest I wish it was for a couple of years as every now and then my entire family seeem to want to grind me down.

So what constitutes the traits of a successful trader? I've started to go through the above videos again and there's just so much great information available, so it's well worth giving them a view at least once.

The start of my random scribblings that are mostly pertinent to in-running trading:

Consistent/robotic trading - having the ability to execute your trades and not worry if the market moves against you and you have to take a loss, as many trades will go against you over the course of time. Remember that when you enter the market you are now relying on others to move the price in your favour.

Accepting losses - even the greatest traders don't have a 100% strike rate. Accept that losses will occur and that they are a natural part of trading.

Using the fear of losing to your advantage - if most traders always fall prey to the fear of losing, and therefore lose their objectivity when a trade moves against them, then they will clamour to exit their position with the smallest loss possible. This is either thorugh fear of losing or trading well and cutting losses quickly. I really do believe that this is the cause of big price moves AGAINST the percieved chance of the horse. I have only spent a relatively short time trading in the win market but I have seen this happen too many times to be anything other than the herd mentality. Therefore by staying level-headed and not joining in with the panic then these fear based moves can present great opportunities. 

Realise that the goal isn't to win every trade - the goal is to win over a series of trades.

Trusting your judgement - if the price moves against you for no apparent reason then you should add to your position. All that has happened is that someone has taken an opposite view, for whatever reason, and the sheep have followed. For instance, if you have backed at 5.0 and for no apparent reason the price has moved to 8.0 then add to your position, it makes sense.

Staying calm and relaxed - this is especially true for me during NH races. Even the shortest race will usually take four minutes to complete, so there is usually time to calmly evaluate your position before making a decision as to when to add to or exit your trade. All too often I find myself on red-alert once they go in-running and this is just not neccessary.

Dealing with the self-limiting internal dialogue - the above example is a typical scenario where in the cold light of day you would add to your position, it makes sense. However, if the market unexpectedly moves against you, especially in a big way, for no reason that you can see, then your self-limiting beliefs kick-in and you get:


'oh fuck I called that one wrong' instead of 'hey my opinion hasn't changed and now I can get an even better price ... happy days'


'someone knows more than me' instead of 'I'm going to trust my own judgement here because I still think that I am right and I believe that the herd mentaility has just presented me with a great opportunity'


'I'm going to look/feel like a right mug as I give away more money' instead of 'even if this trade doesn't go my way I am still making good and consistent money and I shouldn't feel like a mug. Plus if it goes right then I'm going to look/feel qute happy that I trusted my own judgement and be more inclined to grasp these opportunities in the future instead of second guessing or doubting my judgement'


'oh fuck I'm risking £80 instead of £40' instead of 'I don't mind risking another £40 as I think that this is a great opportunity'


Now as long as you are only adding a suitable amount to your initial position then there is no need to worry. Consider it as making two trades in one go, or bringing your next trade forward by one race. I have the strong feeling that this is where big opportunities occur, by taking advantage of these moves that are predominately caused by the herd mentaility, I am sure of it!

So where does this all get me? Well when I visualise my idea of a successful trader then I see someone sitting at a desk relaxed, trading in an authoratative yet relaxed manner. Someone who is focussed and diligent and totally in control of what he/she is doing. Someone you could watch trading and think 'wow, I wish that I could trade like that'. Obviously if it was a woman she'd be pretty, have long legs and a great pair ot tits!




There were 1 or 2 guys like this in the exchange (no not long legs and big tits). They would win great amounts on a regular basis but you could never tell on any given day whether they had just won £10k or lost 10k. Their demeanour was always the same.

So now that's the mental image I have of myself when I sit down to trade. I want to trade so well that if anyone was looking over my shoulder they would say 'wow, this guy is good and makes it seem so easy'.

Anyway here's wishing everyone a fantastic New Year. I'm off to the coast too get pissed, watch the fireworks over the marina and freeze my bollox off!

Onwards and upwards ....

 








Tuesday, 17 December 2013

The Psychology of Trading


17/12

+£21.47. Another day of poor racing but hey it's a Tuesday in the middle of December so it's no real surprise to have to try and trade on three shite meetings.




I ventured over into Caans blog and noticed his excellent link to a Mark Douglas video. It really got my juices flowing again and made me realise that I've made scant progress in my mental development since I started this blog, which is obviously quite disappointing. I also turn into a right miserable bastard in the winter months as my missus will no doubt confirm. So when the racing finished super early at 15:30 I fired up YouTube and went in search of porn .... no not really! I searched for Mark Douglas and started by watching the following vid ...


Mark Douglas - Mind Over Market

 


So in a nutshell what is he saying? Well he's highlighting the fact that professional traders have the ability to execute their trades in a carefree fashion and with no fear as they have developed a proven edge and have pre-determined, and are happy, with their potential risk and reward for any given trade.

Now I still trade seated like this ...


 

 
.. as though I'm on red alert and super hyped to react to anything that happens in the market. I mentioned this quite a while back and haven't been able to change. However, the way that I now trade doesn't need me to sit on red alert all day, it needs me to sit in a relaxed fashion and allow me to be more analytical. I think that this is quite a big issue as the red alert kind of approach means that when I enter a trade I'm now in that fight or flight mode which obviously doesn't lend itself to calm, rational thinking. So as from now I'm going to have a much more relaxed posture which should lead to a slightly calmer mindset when I'm trading.


So the relevant issues are:

Knowing your risk before entering a trade - now as I am mostly a backer nowadays I know that my risk is my stake. So I should only ever risk an amount that I'm happy to lose in order to find out if I can make a good trade. At the moment in the win market this amount is usually around the £50-£100 mark per race.

Executing the trades in a stress-free and consistent manner with no fear - if you have accepted that the markets are random and that your potential loss is defined and acceptable then you should be able to execute your trades without worrying whether the trade will be a winner or loser as you know that your edge will put you in profit over time.

Realising that once you have entered the market that you are entirely dependant upon other traders/gamblers to move the market for you - in my short time trading in-running in the win market I have seen some strange market moves which seem to contradict the way that I see the race developing. At the moment I tend to panic somewhat and bail-out with perhaps an over exaggerated red, as opposed to trusting my judgement and maybe increasing my position. Again this is work in progress so we'll see how it goes over the next few weeks.

Jumping the gun or hesitating - if you can achieve that carefree state of mind then you can automatically act upon your signals without jumping in too early in fear of missing a move or hesitating in the fear of being wrong .

Assessing the potential and scaling out and maximizing profit - the potential of being a backer as your first trade is huge as it's potentially possible to back at very high odds and then lay at very low odds in most races. The opposite is true in races where the favourite is a very low price. I do tend to scale-out my winning positions but the method that I currently use maybe needs enhancing as I gain more experience.

Dealing with an unpredictable series of wins/losses - we dont know what the sequence of our wins/losses are going to be so there's no point worrying or getting stressed when we run into the inevitable run of losses.

Dealing with the emotional trauma of always expecting the same thing to happen - well we all know that it doesn't, so we need to accept this fact and get on with it.

It all adds-up to trading in a calm, carefree and focussed state of mind and without fear.

Obviously the key aspect is the willingness to change. I can probably say that I was willing to change when I last visited the subject of the mental approach to trading but I didn't really make a concerted effort to see it through and actually implement the changes. Maybe this time will be different ....


I never knew that Prince was such an excellent guitarist until I saw this ...


While My Guitar Gently Weeps - Prince & Co.






18/12

+£83.16. OK. My calm and relaxed state of mind swung into action today. I made sure that I was sitting in a nice relaxed position as I opened up my Betfair, Gruus and Geeks and casually nicked a few quid from the first race. Then the API crashed! Now normally I would have been shouting and swearing at the screen and the incompetence of the Betfair IT staff, but no, not today. I decided to have a nice soak in the bath and forget about trading for 30 minutes.


Rande Howell - Developing a Traders State of Mind




Betfair was still fucked when I jumped out of the bath so I had the opportunity to take a look at my tumble dryer which sounded like it was full of nuts and bolts. Now once again I would have been kicking the shit out of it after two minutes of trying to find the problem, but not today. I ventured down to the garage to get the relevant driver bits and started to dis-assemble the fucker in order to find out why it was making such a racket. I just couldn't find the cause of the problem but then noticed one of the wifes bra underwires sticking out of the back of the drum! Now my missus is a big girl up top so it was a fucking big wire! Put it all back together again and hey presto! It did mean that I missed a few races but at least my pants are now dry!

So once BF came back I sat back and nicked a few quid here and there all the while sitting back nice and relaxed and even humming to myself which seems to be a good way of staying calm.




The Olympics eh? Well we smashed it didn't we? We also had Elbow playing in the closing ceremony and every time I hear this song it reminds me of just what a spectacular event it was, once in a lifetime really, and just how well all of our athletes performed ...


Elbow - One Day Like This




PS I was probably slightly fortunate in the 15:10 @ Lingfield where I spotted Syncopate going well turning from home and I was just about to smash the back button when my eyes were attracted to Rakaan flying home from nowhere. Well it seems like that fucking stupid midget Ross Atkinson who rode Syncopate who actually finished third forgot to weigh-in! Surely for a jockey that's the equivalent of going for s shit and forgetting to pull your trousers down? Fucking cheating thick midgets ....



19/12

+£58.49. What a gorgeous day out there today and only two days to go to the shortest day of the year!




It was my mum's birthday today so we all went out to a local curry house and had a great time. The meals ranged from chips, chicken korma, chicken phall and the bhindi bhajee which was especially nice. All washed down with several pints of Kingfisher or in the case of my mum a nice cup of tea.

I found it relatively easy to continue my relaxed approach today and the only time I had my face anywhere close to the screen was when I traded the 5F race @ Southwell where you had to be in and out like greased lightening.

Rande Howell - Mastering Fear




Ballyhollow and the herd/sheep mentaility - so I'm trading the 15:40 & Towcester sitting back in a nice calm and relaxed state and I back Ballyhollow wih McCoy on board as he leads a 2M NHF race at a sensible pace. Now he's lobbing along and going well and his price just takes off and goes from 4.0 to 7.0, and he's still lobbing along in front!




Now I've only backed him for small money but I'm thinking 'fuck this I'm not bailing out for a red as he's still going well'. The price then crashes down at a rapid rate of knots and he wins the race. This is just a classic case of the herd/sheep mentality (mentioned in the above video) that I mentioned a few days ago and in future I'll be trusting my judgement and going in again!





I listen to The Streets every now and then and I just love this video. I can imagine that if my youngest daughter ever gets married then the wedding would be just like this, although I'm not too sure whether I'd be the one doing the punching or the one getting hit ...

The Streets - Blinded By The Lights






20/12

-£31.14. The 13:20 at Uttoxeter didn't treat me too well but soldiered on and didn't really let it effect me so wasn't too dissappointed at the end of the day despite the loss.




Took the opportunity to pop down to Canary Wharf to have a drink with the boys from the exchange and we had a good crack. We all agreed that it's still getting harder to make it pay and that it's still the biggest mind-fuck in the history of man. We ended up in The Hilton for a few beers after being in a pub where it was four deep at the bar all night (fuck knows why they didn't have twice as many bar staff as they must have lost a fortune). The Hilton was hosting a company Xmas party and it was good to see untold totty in short skirts, but amazingly I didn't manage to pull (must be losing my touch) and had to stumble back home to the missus.


How To Control Your Emotions When Trading- 1



You can never tell whether or not this girls is gorgeous or a moose but I think that some of her tunes are quite good. I quite like the video as well as it's all done in one take ....


Christine Aguilera - The Voice Within





21/12

+£27.74. A pretty unspectacular day..




How To Control Your Emotions When Trading - 2





Just wish I'd made the effort to go and see this guy while he was still with us ...

Gary Moore - Still In Love With You





22/12

+£30.13. Another uneventful December day ...




The one and only SRV ...

Stevie Ray Vaughan - Texas Flood





I have found these psychology videos to be really helpful. I tend to listen to a few in the evening and then have a quick blast just before racing just to focus the mind so that I'm prepared to trade.

How Do Successful and Profitable Traders Think?





26/12

OK. It's 12:00, ten minutes to the first race, and I've just had a quick blast of Brett Steenbargar on YouTube so I'm ready for action. I've decided to utilise my bank a bit more efficiently and therefore go in a bit heavier than usual so here we go ...

State of mind: slightly nervous/apprehensive.

+£80.42. Played steadily today and was well focussed. Didn't play as big as I had wanted to but stayed patient and actually turned down a £100+ green in one race as I thought that maybe I was close to landing a four fugure sum and held on a bit too long. Also missed a £40+ green in another race and bailed out way too early in another race where literally a few seconds later I would have been straight into a £100 green as the horse led all the way! So plenty of potential and food for thought. I'll probably go through some more psychology presentations on YouTube this evening in preparation for tomorrow.

 Joe Bonamassa - Sloe Gin



It's 20:43 and I'm about halfway through tomorrows cards and updating my horse notes. It's time consuming and boring as fuck but it has to be done ...


How Winning Traders Think






27/12

OK. It's 11:37 and I've pretty much finished my horse notes for this afternoons racing and I'll probably do Wolverhamptons evening card race by race as it's doing my head in!

State of mind: cautiously confident mixed with a bit of apprehension.

+£84.78. Didn't really get into any good positions today and didn't spot any opportunities to go in a bit heavier but took my reds quickly when I had to and played quite steadily. I did have a bit of a scream and shout during the last at Wolves where I backed the favourite when it led only to see the price move against me almost immediately ... doh! Anyway had fuck all to do tonight so had a crack at the evening dog racing.




Trading Psychology Tips - 1






28/12

OK. It's 11:02 and I'd be lying if I said that I don't have the thought in my mind that I'd like to win more than yesterday, £100 maybe, and gradually increase my winnings day by day. However, I'm going to erase that from my thoughts and just get on with trading as normal today. So just some time to update some more horse notes before the first race at 11:40 ...

State of mind: confident but wary of getting too confident.


The Psychology Of Trading



+£94.03. Well I did get more than the previous two days but I had some luck on the dogs when Betfair closed the market early and I ended up with a few quid on the winner. In general though the trading was nice and steady again, so I'm happy.

I don't have a clue about who the bloke in the above videos is but he raises some really good points.




There are a zillion great gems of wisdom in the videos that I've posted and what I intend to do is to go through these agin and pick out the key points and compile a list here, kind of like a checklist that I can use each day before trading.


Monday, 9 December 2013

Trading In-Running in the Win Market




09/12

-£4.05. Chucked away £105 early doors when Luke Morris decided to drop his whip 50 yards from the winning line ... fucking useless midget! When something like that happens you just have to take it on the chin and crack-on .... he's still a fucking useless midget though!




I'll probably visit the coast over the New Year with the missus and then maybe hit Broadstairs in February for the Blues Bash. We went back in 2011 and had a great time. It's usually well freezing down there so not exactly ideal drinking conditions (very good for curing hangovers though) but they have a great line-up of free live acts in a lot of the local pubs over the weekend so it's well worth a visit.

This guy played last year but for some reason we didn't go .... 

Steve Roux - Can't Change Time





Trading in the Win Market

So I have one observation about trading in the win market (especially over the jumps). Here's the scenario:

I've backed a runner early in the race and it travels and jumps well. I'm sitting pretty and into the green zone and then the price starts to drift alarmingly for no apparent reason and I'm forced to take a red. The horse then continues to travel and jump well and after a lovely spike it then comes crashing down in price to well below where I had originally backed it. I then sit and swear at the screen and kick the cat/dog/wife. It's even more frustrating when the beast goes on to win.

So what the fuck is happening? After a bit of head scratching I'll have a stab in the dark as to why this occurs:

The 'backers' who are all in the same boat as me (sitting on a nice potential green but holding on for more) are thrown a curved ball when someone takes a contrary view and decides to lay the selection. Maybe it's a genuine opinion, although highly unlikely, or maybe it's pre-race backers, dobbers or tick-offset merchants bailing out early for a quick profit? I don't think that it really matters why this move starts as it's the knock-on effect that is easier to explain. This move, seemingly against what is actually happening in the race, then starts a knee-jerk reaction where the backers who were sitting pretty now also want to bail out for a profit as they see the price moving against their position. The sheep then follow and before you know it a beast that is jumping and travelling well has inexplicably drifted like a barge. So in my opinion it's a simple case of a) people panicking and b) joining in on the crowd mentality.

So it's time to grow some bollox (again) and possibly even back again as opposed to bailing whenever this happens? Only time will tell ....

I've also re-visited the pre-race market and I've started trying something based entirely upon WOM and that may develop into an interesting little experiment. Once again I'll let you know how this progresses ...



10/12

+£81.94. Another fun day trading in the win market. The exciting thing is that I'm still playing for relatively small stakes and I think that I can scale-up quite a bit. The last few days have give me the incentive to push on with updating my horse notes. This is a pretty time consuming and boring process but gets easier as I get them up to date. I need to try to make sure that I have all of my notes compiled a day in advance as that makes things a bit easier to manage.I'll also take a look at the Betdaq/Ladbrokes IR markets tomorrow to see if there has been any improvement in the liqudity since I last looked.




OK, time for something a bit different. I remember taking a chance and buying this before I'd even heard it and on coming out of HMV in Oxford Street one of the security guards saw what I had purchased and said that it was one of the best albums he had heard. Rap you either love it or hate it ...

Dr Dre - Still Dre





11/12

+£60.90. Lingfield and then Kempton were both cancelled due to heavy fog so we were left with a bag of shite from Hexham and Leicester. We did have Dundalk in the evening but that was practically impossible apart from the last race where I clicked one right on the line for £200+ (after a couple of beers) and it scraped third by a gnats cock.




Hey, it's only 10 days to the shortest day of the year and then it's summer here we come!!

I'm not too sure when I got hooked on Les Mis but I think that it's fucking fantastic and still brings a tear or two to my eyes whenever I watch it, either the 10th anniversary stage production or the film. Fucking superb ...

Philip Quast - Stars

 




12/12

-£16.47. Won a bit, lost a bit, won a bit, lost a bit and so on ....




I'm holding onto my in-running greens for a bit longer and that has meant that I have missed one or two £30-£40 greens but I think that I'm due to hit a few £70-£100+ (and possibly more) greens in the near future. Remember that I'm still a novice in the win market so it's work in progress.


Once again I can't say that I'm the biggest Amy Winehouse fan but a girl in our local drinking establishment (when it was still open) loved to sing this on the karaoke every Sunday night and it kinda grew on me ...

Amy Winehouse - Back to Black



I'm out on a heavy Xmas drinking session with my mates on Saturday. These are my best mates from back when we were all about 8 years old and we still make sure to keep in touch, especially at Xmas. We're heading off to Camden and I'm slightly nervous as they are all skilled in the art of drinking copious amounts of alcohol and I can see myself being tailed-off and left in the gutter. I might have a few Hoegaardens tonight just as a warm-up!

On our Xmas outing two years ago I got absolutely wankered and literally stumbled from somewhere in the West End to Old Street. I didn't know where I was walking, can't remember crossing any roads but can remember throwing up along the way. I did stop and sit down at a few bus stops but every time a bus came along I couldn't even focus to see the fucking number or where it was going! I somehow found myself in Old Street where I had worked many years ago and finally managed to get a mini cab back home. Ah good times .....



13/12

-£60.38. Friday the fucking 13th eh? I traded like a zombie on crack today. Most of my trades in the day probably weren't too bad but my loss in the first at Wolves was criminal. I'm off out tomorrow night so could do with winning some beer/kebab/hooker(s)/bail/cab home money.

I stumbled across this man maybe a couple of years ago and he possibly has to be one of the best blues guitarists that I've ever heard ... and he can sing as well!

Joe Bonamassa - The Great Flood




14/12

+£7.56. Kind of felt as though I had to push things a bit today as I wanted an afternoon kip before I ventured out on the piss. Played a couple of races poorly and just about broke even.





I think that I first heard this in The Belgian Cafe down in Ramsgate where they have quite a bit of regular scheduled and impromptu music. I've just cracked open a bottle of red (added on Friday evening, so jumped ahead of myself here) so I'm feeling a bit bluesy ...

BB King & Co - The Thrill is Gone



15/12


+£21.07. Felt like a sack of shite after last night's marathon beer session so won £20 and went back to bed!




I was up late one night and managed to catch Jarvis Cocker on the Jools Holland show and I really love this song ...

Pulp - I Spy





16/12

-£44.72. Not a particular enjoyable day today. You know when you have that feeling that it's going to be a shite day and nothing seems to go right .... well that was today. I wasn't going anywhere fast and then I blew £55 in cold blood when I went to back a horse and managed to move the cursor onto the horse above it (I've probably still got the shakes from all that alcohol I consumed) and stood to win about a million pounds as the fucker had fallen or was 10 miles behind.


 


The in-running markets seemed to be a bit all over the place today and a prime example was the race won by Act of Kalinisi. The horse took an early lead and the price shortened accordingly. The commentator then mentioned that the pace was strong, so the price then went on a big drift. The commentator then exclaimed how it had now stretched on and had gone 5 lengths clear and the price fell like a stone. It often happens that a big move will occur immediately after the commentator mentions something positive/negative about the horse and this move is often way too aggresive compared to what is actually happening.

I couldn't wait for the racing to end as I was still fucked from the weekend and hit the sack for a late afternoon snooze.

I think I was eleven or twelve and every other music lesson we were allowed to bring a record (vinyl yep) into school to play for everyone in the class. One of the guys was right into his music and brought in 'Presence' by Led Zeppelin. Whoah I was blown away and have been a Led Zeppelin fan ever since ...    

Page & Plant - Tea For One
 









Sunday, 1 December 2013

Right time of the year for a bit of a change?


A Very Steady and Consistent November

First of all I'm going to congratulate myself on going through the whole of November without a single losing day. OK I didn't exactly set the world alight in terms of profit but it's still good to have a nice steady month, especially at this time of the year.



 
Trading in the Win Market

Some things changed during November. Towards the end of the month I became more accustomed to actually trading in the win market. This happened as a natural follow-on to trading the pre-race market and in most cases I was taking positions early in the race. I only played for relatively small stakes but can definitely see the potential of hanging around in the win market, at least for the first half of the race at which point I have normally exited my position. I then tend to jump into the place market for the last half of the race and this seems to work well although it can be a pain in the ass forever jumping in and out of markets and combining pre-race/early race trading in the win market using the Geeks Toy and then jumping into the place market and trading on Gruss. I further complicated things by having a crack pre-race on Betdaq (Ladbrokes) and this meant that I had even more windows open and at times it just become too confusing. I may persevere on Betdaq this month but maybe only on those days when there are 2 meetings during the day. If they ever get their API sorted then Betdaq will be OK for pre-race trading as the liquidity seems to have improved significantly over the last few weeks. All we need now is a similar level of cash in the market once it goes in-running.  


Trading the Greyhounds

There is some potential to make some small cash in the dog markets and I think that I'm right on top of how the markets move but I just didn't take advantage of the opportunities in November. The horse racing was quite full-on so I didn't really play many dog markets. However, it's good to be prepared for when the weather hits in Jan/Feb. I'm definitely going to make more of an effort to be up and about for the early dogs and also the live dogs on RPGTV Wed-Sun where there is much better liquidity in the markets.




01/12

-£27.26. Jumped on the spinning bike for 20 minutes this morning and waved goodbye to the bacon, sausages, cakes and crap that I've been eating recently so felt ready to trade.

So today I spent most of my time trading in the win market. The house was quiet with my lads in bed after a heavy night and the girls out shopping. Played small but steady and made a few pennies until boom! In a nutshell .... youngest boy woke up with the arsehole... caused a big argument .... missus, daughter and kids came in shouting and screaming ... I sit down for the last race and blow £50! OK not a huge amount but it provided me with my first losing day for ages and the right raving arsehole. Needless to say I vented my spleen and had a good scream and shout, threw my headphones and kicked the sofa halway across the room! They seeem to think that I sit here every day for the fucking fun of it? To be honest if I could fuck off tomorrow then I probably would ....




So seeing that it's not the time of year for beer pics in the sun let's have some music this month. Maybe a few favourite tracks or bands. I have loads of goodies lined-up so I'll start with a track/group that takes me back to my youth and a tune that I belt out on the karaoke given half a chance ...

Deep Purple - Smoke on the Water





02/12

+£62.89. Woke up in the middle of the night and the first thing that entered my head was that pot of cheese and onion gooey spread sitting in my fridge! Fuck I was starving!





Another one that takes me back to my youth. I must admit that I still haven't listened to a lot of their music but my vinyl copy of this album/track had much airtime in my house back when I was still in school. In my opinion one of their best tracks and they still do it justice 30 odd years later...

Yes - And You and I





03/12

+£64.01. Wasn't much on offer today. Tuesday and we were presented with Sedgefield, Southwell and Wolverhampton and loads of races with very few runners, so was quite happy getting any sort of profit!

David Gilmour, probably my favourite guitarist of all time ...

David Gilmour - A great Day for Freedom



Managed to get to see him on his solo tour back in the 80's and again at the Mermaid Theatre a few years back, but alas never got to see the mighty Pink Floyd (one of life's regrets).



04/12

+£109.85. A nice day today where one again I stayed in the win market for as long as possible but most of my profits came from the in-running. To be honest I think that the in-running still has more potential than pre-race .... but Caan may beg to differ. Take a look at his blog as he is posting some very nice profits!

I took some flak from my missus and daughter about my comments on the 01/12. They obviously keep a close eye on my blog in between their hectic days of cracking open cans of Stella/Fosters. If there was money in recycling beer cans I'd be a millionaire! Let's just say that my local off-license is doing very well out of my family at the moment thank you very much!




As I've mentioned before, my missus can be a pain in the ass but she did take me to see the one and only Leonard Cohen (fucking Legend) at the O2 but fuck me that O2 arena is fucking high ... and I'm shit scared of heights! Even sitting down I had the overwhelming feeling of plumetting to the ground miles below and after some of the comments I've posted about my missus on here I was seriously worrying that she was a) trying to give me a heart attack or b) even possibly about to trip me over the edge. Apart from the height it was a fabulous night ....


Leonard Cohen - A Thousand Kisses Deep

 



05/12

+£70.65. I was called up for baby sitting duties for my 18 month grandaughter so had to juggle trading a few races while making sure that she wasn't turning my amp up to max, turning the TV on and off, trying to pull the flap off my CD player, smashing my camcorder, pushing the Sky box off the shelf and shitting her nappy. I just about survived.

As for the racing, well I fared OK again over the jumps and stayed mostly in the win market. Unfortunately I nodded off briefy before the last race at Wolverhampton as I was SO tired and then managed to lay the favourite (which was good) and in my attempt to take a small red in-running I managed to back it back for too much using that fucking useless poxy greeen-up button. Obviously it got well beat so my original click was a good one ... DOH!





Call me a philistine but I'm not the greatest fan of Eric Clapton. However, when I first heard this track, especially the live version, well it blew me away. Love it ....

Eric Clapton  - River of Tears






06/12

+£94.75. I was really keen to get cracking on todays racing but never really got going and had to settle for some small wins. I'm still amazed that so many races have small fields ... where have all of the fucking horses gone?




If you're in a chilled mood and have a bottle or 2 of wine handy and a fine woman to share it with then stick on some Black (Colin Vearncombe) and just chill baby .....




Apparently my missus has taken offence to some of my ealier comments and is planning to compile her own blog in which she intends to vent her spleen and shoot me down in a ball of flames. I'd better get that 'Blogging for Dummies' ordered so she gets it in time for Xmas ...





07/12

+£110.92. I REALLY enjoyed trading the races this afternoon. I've mentioned before that Saturdays don't usually provide me with the sort of profit that I'd expect from the busiest day of the week. However today I pretty much stayed in the win market all day and actually traded as opposed to backing/laying in the place market!





I have to admit that I only recently watched the film 'Quadrophenia'!! Yep how did that one slip under the radar? Well to be honest I'm not a fan of The Who, but the ending scene and the music, especially 'Love Reign O'er Me' is fantastic, especially as it's filmed in Brighton (and remember that I hate heights) ...

The Who - Love Reign O'er Me



08/12

+£47.11. Another enjoyable day. Not huge profits and make a few novicey mistakes (well I am new to trading in the win market) but a bit more exciting and involved than the way that I normally play.




The best thing to ever have come out of Newham! Up the Irons! ....

Iron Maiden - Paschendale





Wednesday, 27 November 2013

BETDAQ on the improve?


Could it be that the pre-race liquidity on the DAQ is beginning to build to reasonable levels? I ventured over there yesterday and today and it certainly seems as though the liquidity is greatly improved from what I've seen in the past. So maybe the Labrokes bandwagon is finally rolling into action? All that in need to do now is to start to win some decent pre-race cash!

I did take a look at the in-running markets and these still seemed to be piss poor but maybe that will also improve in the coming weeks?


27/11

+£58.57. Decided to have a crack on the DAQ today for my pre-race activity. As you can see I didn't fare too well and it was a bit fiddly fucking about with several windows and trying to trade on the DAQ while looking at the info from the BF graphs etc. My Geeks Toy for the DAQ also seemed to wobble a few times and this caused a couple of the losses. I'll try again tomorrow and maybe I'll bit more selective when and where I trade. I only have £100 in my DAQ account so it's minimal stakes until I feel a bit more confident in the markets and with the software.











28/11

+£130.27. I like to think that I'm quite intelligent. I went to a good primary school, studied quite hard, then went to a really good Grammar school (Nick Leeson and even Tommy Walsh went there) and I had quite a good career in IT. But fuck me I'm fucking hopeless at doing the right thing in this pre-race malarkey!! I played the dogs tonight and I must be fucking blind or completely retarded (or both). In most races it was so fucking obvious what was happening but I kept making a balls-up race after race. OK, I had consumed a few Hoegaardens but even in my semi-pissed state I should have made some cash.



On the dogs it's easy to spot the fake money and it's easy to see the obvious trends ... so wakey wakey Dave you dozey fucker and start making some cash tou twat!!

And don't even get me started on the £300+ green that I missed today!








PS If you need a good read then take a look at 'Koo's Comeback Thread' on the 'General Betting' section of the Betfair forum. OK it's a few years old but the figures are staggering! 




29/11

+£67.05. Tried trading a few races on the DAQ today but to be honest my £100 bank is too small even for £5 stakes and it's a right pain in the ass trying to amalgamate the info from my Betfair Geeks Toy graphs/amount matched/ranges etc alongside the Geeks Toy for the DAQ. A couple of times I ended up with different sized windows all over the shop and didn't have a fucking clue what was happening. So for the last few races I choked down to £2 per click and that helped a little.









Probably going to stuff my face tomorrow and then get back on the diet as November was a hectic month what with all the kids in and out, too much crap being put in the fridge, plaster/ceilings coming down and scaffolding going up. So fat fucker tomorrow (Saturday) and early to rise and lean and mean in December.


30/11

+£113.40. I've always found that Saturday's in general produce much less profit than what I'd expect. I'm not too sure whether this in fact true and if it is then the reason why they often provide fruitless? I have found myself sticking around in the win market a bit more often over the last couple of days and it's quite refreshing playing a different syle, trading more and nicking a few quid for small stakes. I'm sensing that there may be some potential there!




The 2+ hour break in the racing today reminds me of when this occured more often a few years back. In that break we would often pop down to the 'Cat and Canary' in Canary Wharf and have a bite to eat, a drink and throw a few arrows. Alternatively we'd pop into the local Tesco and buy huge bags of crisps, donuts, biscuits and all sorts of crap and then wander back to the exchange for the twilight/evening meeting and stuff our faces until we felt physically sick.

I'm back on the diet/training regime as from tomorrow so stuffing my face today!


 











Saturday, 2 November 2013

It's Time to Get Busy


It seems as though the wheels are finally in motion for my move to the coast.





My eldest daughter and her boyfriend were back with us for a couple of months in order to give them time to find a new place ..... and they move today! That free's up my spare room which in turn means that I can get cracking on the DIY/decorating. However, I might not even have to get involved as I have another estate agent coming over next week to price-up our house and that will then give us an indication of what we can afford. You never know, there may be a buyer out there who likes red/green/yellow floorboards and a matching yellow ceiling. Another option is to rent this place and rent down on the coast? My missus has also applied for a few jobs in Kent so we'll see how that pans out over the coming weeks/months. I might even be able to start concentrating properly on my pre-race trading and maybe even produce a few videos?

So November could be an interesting month and it would be so nice to record a nice score in terms of profit as this month has seen many bills landing on my desk! A good November will ease the pressure that comes in December-February as the weather always kills off many meetings.


01/11

+£99.45. A nice start to the month. I'm still quite disorganised as all of my daughters household items are stored in my living room ready for their move and obviously it's quite hard to concentrate when everyone is flying about getting things sorted and using me as a cab/removal service at the same time.




As mentioned previously most of my in-running activity is pretty much based on backing selections as opposed to laying and i think that there's still more to be had if I get a bit more involved and concentrate entirely on backing. I'll also make sure that my horse notes are up-to-date every day as knowing a horses usual running style provides a usable edge for in-running trading/backing/laying.




02/11

+£16.23. Today I was used as a removal man/cab driver for my daughter and her partner so really didn't get the chance to get stuck-in .... hence the low profit.





And just to add some balance to the lovely serene video of Ramsgate above I thought I'd add a little example of the sort of pillocks (who look as though they couldn't punch their way out of a paper bag) that you get everywhere these days .... even outside 'The Belgian Cafe', my favourite datyime and late night drinking establishment when I'm down there ...




 

03/11

+£127.86. There were 1 or 2 chances in-running today and I managed to get into 3 figure profit territory, so not too bad for a Sunday.






04/11

+£24.72. A below average Monday in terms of the racing on offer and a below average result ...




Pants racing again tomorrow so it'll probably be more of the same ...




05/11

+£34.07. Had the estate agent around today and he seems to think that we'll get a decent enough price on the house even in it's current state, so that's good news. Just a case of the missus finding a job or me making twice as much and moving over to Ladbrokes and only paying 5% commission when their exchange finally goes live.






06/11

+£31.30. A while ago (probably after a few Hoegaardens) I thought about writing a book that would basically give youngsters a guide to life. There's no doubt at all that at some point in our life's we have all said 'if i knew then what I know now' etc. So I've finally decided to put pen to paper and start scribbling away. There's also no doubt that, if in hindsight, we'd all made the right choices when we were young then we would all be multi-millionaires. Strong words I hear you say .... but remember that I'm 51 and as an example one of my mates was shrewd enough to buy a few properties for £50k 'ish each back in the days that are probably now each worth £400k+. Also a certain Simon Jordan was a new starter on my shift when I was shift leader back in the IT days. In fact I'm actually mentioned in Simon's book 'Be Careful What you Wish For'. In truth the guy was probably one of the funniest and quick witted fuckers that I have ever known. Simon wasn't as orange back then and it wouldn't have been a shock to see him on TV as a professional stand-up comedian but fuck me was it a shock when we saw he was worth £70 million plus!

PS  'And I mistoook my scruffy boss, Dave Beerman, for a cleaner' .... I'll see you at The Old Bailey Simon my old friend!




PPS If you have any salient points that you think should be added into my book then feel free to fire them in my direction!


07/11

+£36.24. I seem to be meandering along right now. OK, I've strung a few winning days together but I'm not exactly raking in the cash.



 

08/11

+£33.65. Another day of mediocre trading. Only had one loss which was 1p but once again didn't really get involved and hence the meagre profit.






09/11

+£0.57. Saturday today but hardly got involved.



The missus treated me to a night out and we wandered off for a couple of beers and a curry ... she's a diamond (although sometimes she can be a right pain in the ass) and I love her lots.



10/11

+£26.27. Sunday. Woke up late and needn't have even bothered!






11/11

+£29.05. Time to get busy eh? Well I've done anything but get busy! I think that last week I was the laziest fucker in the UK ... I didn't do a thing apart from lay in bed each morning.




I really need to get my act together and start making an effort ...




Today the racing was fucking awful .... you just forget how nice it is in the summer with wall-to-wall racing. As I mentioned earlier it's a case of knuckling down and trying to survive the winter months.


But hey, does all that really matter?






12/11

+£45.13. Haven't picked up the guitar for a while so got it out, put on a backing track and had a quick jam. OK I'm still a novice but it don't sound too bad for a quick impromptu strum ...




Felt as though I'd won a bit more than what I did today but could obviously do with a few 3 figure days of profit to keep from going skint.






13/11

+£50.84. The thing about doing this full-time trading from home is that it's so fucking easy to lose track of the days (probably something to do with old age as well). So I'm updating this post 2 days after the event and I can't remember anything about today's trading so it couldn't have been that exciting.






14/11

+£29.82. A pretty miserable day for a Thursday ...



So I thought I'd have a little tinkle on the ivories ... however the fingers had a mind of their own and there was a distinct time delay between what I was asking my fingers to do as opposed to when they finally did it!





15/11

+£104.60. Had quite a steady day today and finally managed to get into 3 figure territory.






16/11

+£76.28. A long Saturday of steady, if somewhat unspectacular trading.






17/11

+£65.21. Leicester, Plumpton and Wolverhampton tomorrow = a steaming pile of horse dung! Quite possibly one of the crappiest Monday cards this year.





18/11

+£3.45. Yep, waste of time today. Unplayable tracks, shite racing and small fields ... gave up and had a nice late afternoon snooze!






19/11

+£39.40. Another steady day for the time of the year. I did get lucky in one race at Wolves where I backed a bit too early for £100+ at small odds coming off the final bend and the fucker almost got caught on the line!







20/11

+£26.69. The struggle continues. There's no doubt in my mind that in these days of weak markets there is a lot of manipulation taking place, and unless you can suss out what the fuck they are doing then it's fucking hard to make a decent profit. Additionally the in-running liquidity must surely be at an all time low? To be honest I can't see much hope on the immediate horizon. OK the Ladbrokes exchange may help, but strangely the BF share price is quite solid. If the Ladddies exchange was going to be a serious threat to BF then shouldn't the BF share price be a bit wobbly?






21/11

+£130.20. My guttering has been dripping (oo errr missus) so I called a few roofers to have a look and give me a quote. Well only one guy actually turned up and he must have thought that I was a fucking idiot, quoting me £850 for one days work!! So I said 'bollox to that' and I've hired an access tower for a week and that should arrive tomorrow (and won enough today to pay for it). So up I'll go and splash a bit of paint while I'm up there.

OK, Sarah Beeny, she's not a builder or even a roofer but she's got huge tits and that's a good enough excuse for a pic ....





Another average day today and then got lucky in the penultimate race at Kempton where there were two runners in orange and I managed to lay the one falling out the back of the telly. Sometimes it goes for you, and sometimes I'm the one who makes the fuck-up and someone else steals my cash!






22/11

+£17.21. What a fucking hopeless day! Will probably just settle for the evening racing at Wolves tomorrow and crack-on with my gutter and painting. I just can't face another day of shite racing with small fields and sitting here all day and winning peanuts ...



 

23/11

+£0.43. Thought that I was heading for my first daily loss in November but just about made it into profit after the last race ...






25/11

+£49.09. A fairly mediocre and unspectacular day ...





Didn't bother trading yesterday as I spent most of the day up the scaffold. Managed to get my gutter and flashing sorted (hopefully, will know when it next pisses down). 





26/11

+£56.25. My pre-race trading today was pants. I just kept getting caught and i just couldn't see why, which is really frustrating. At various points during the day my language was XXX rated as I was screaming expletives at the screen. If I remember rightly my most commonly used phrase was ...

'This is fucking bollox! Every time I press the fucking button this cunt of a market goes in the other direction ... every fucking time!!! Fucking piece of shit!! This is fucking hopeless why am I even fucking bothering ... BOLLOX!!' 

... or something along those lines.






27/11