Thursday, 22 September 2016

Gone AWOL!



I must admit that although it happens very seldom I do sometimes have periods where I fail to update this blog on a regular basis.




I'm at that age where I've hit a mid-life crisis and trying to sort out personal issues has meant that the blog has taken a back seat for a while. I've also had quite a few days off, mostly to take advantage of the fine late summer weather that we have been experiencing.

The trading has been a bit hit and miss due to new fluctuations in the markets but the key here is to recognise when these happen, what is happening and how to take advantage of the way in which the markets have altered.

I'm going to make a conscious effort to resume the light-hearted theme of this blog which may take some effort initially as I've been really fucked off, depressed and at sometimes quite fucking sad over the last few weeks (sure signs of manic depression).




Hopefully I can get back to 'normal' and start posting more pictures of me on the piss and recounting the weird and wonderful things that usually happen when I'm out there in the twilight zone ... better known as Ramsgate after midnight!



31/08

-£5.11 ... fuck know's what happened but looking at my results I was up and down, much like my current mood swings, like a whores drawers!



01/09

+£86.97. For some reason I only managed to trade 20 races ...



02/09

+£263.02. It's always good to look back after a few weeks thinking that you had a bad month and then see that on at least one day you had a good result! However, if truth be told I nicked £200 in the first race of the day in the place market!



03/09

+£184.59. I only traded 25 races today and had to wait until the very last race before I had a good result and managed to nick over £100, once again in the place market! Kind of like Man Utd when they always managed to score a winner in extra time ... bastards!



04/09

-£5.93. I only traded 15 races today so it must have been a Sunday?



05/09

+£26.13. I only traded 9 races today .... fuck knows why, I cant remember!



06/09

-£0.73. When your mind is elsewhere then your results will always suffer unfortunately ...



07/09

+£3.94. I think that I went to the beach, came home and traded 1 race at Kempton!



08/09

Fuck knows what I did today but I didn't trade ....



09/09

+£83.51. I only traded 17 races and was probably glad to get some sort of profit after a lean few days.



10/09

+£134.99. The number of races that I have traded recently on a daily basis has dropped, only 22 today, but I suppose that we are now approaching that time of year where the number of races per day drops to a much lower figure than in the peak of the summer.



11/09 - 14/09

It was time for a much needed break down on the coast. I had 2 days by myself in the sun and then the missus joined me, the sun got even hotter and I drank even more and got smashed on the Tuesday (the hottest day of the year?) had an argument with the missus and then decided to go swimming in the sea after consuming at least 8 pints at lunchtime! It wasn't the best breast stroke or front crawl ever witnessed!




I was so pissed that it took me a few attempts to actually get from being in 2 ft of water back onto dry land and I stacked it a few times in the sea. When I finally made it back onto the beach I fell over again trying to put my shorts on, rolled about like a pissed fool and managed to get a huge bruise on my ass and back! Not funny and definitely not clever!



15/09

+£187.87. Recouped a small percentage of what I spunked over the last few days down on the coast!



16/09

+£159.45. 18 races traded with only one small loss so the binge drinking session must have done me some good?



17/09

+£167.00. Another OK day to keep the ball rolling ...



18/09

+£16.36. Fuck knows what happened today as I only traded 9 races?



19/09

+£120.24. Today could have been so much better as I managed to lose the best part of £100 in the last 4 races of the evening doh!



20/09

+£85.67. One decent win saved the day today ...



21/09

More nice weather today so another day down on the beach.



22/09

+£332.12. Normal service has been resumed ...






I quite fancied a drink after the racing in the evening and smashed into 3 bottles of Franziskaner that I had chilling in the fridge. These put me in the zone but when I went back to the fridge at around midnight there wasn't a beer to be seen! The only solution was to cycle to the local 24 hour shop. Now obviously their range of wheat beer was non-existent so I decided to cycle the 3 miles to Tesco to source some Hoegaarden. Flying along on your bike at 00:30 in the morning with no lights isn't a particularly good idea but fuck I felt faster than Chris Froome. It's only when I got off the fucker at Tesco that I realised how pissed I already was! I stumbled about the deserted isles and came away with 2 bottles of Hoegaarden and a packet of scones. I literally flew back home, only drank half a bottle but managed to eat most of the scones and finally hit the sack at about 02:30.



23/09

+£11.94. I traded 25 races today and never really got going. As some of you may have noticed the markets have been changing on a daily basis and that means that what works one day does not work the next. The key here is to identify when this happens and alter your style to suit. On days like this I am usually in more of a 'damage limitation' mode as you can often find yourself sticking to the same old strategy hoping that things will change during the day. It's only at the end of the day that you realise that maybe you should have quickly switched to plan B when you first noticed that things weren't 'normal'.



24/09 

+£150.84. I was off to a flyer but then trundled through the remainder of the day without really making much progress.



25/09

+£68.71. Wank Sunday.


It's 03:30 on a Sunday morning so I have a bit of time on my hands! Here's how I generally approach a days' racing:

  • If you have the time then try and get a rough idea of the usual running styles of each horse in every race. Now this takes time I must admit, but if you do have this time then it's worth the effort as you can go into each race with a rough idea of how you think that the race will be played out. If you don't have the time for this then start by concentrating on maybe the first and second in the market and have an idea if you want you entry point to be a back or a lay.
     
  • I don't have any set targets in terms of profit. You have to take whatever you get without constantly checking your P&L
     
  • Concentrate on 3-4 horses each race. Find those with marked running styles such as leaders, hold up horses, strong travellers, good/bad jumpers, etc.
     
  • Have an idea in your mind what you expect to happen in the early stages of each race and how you expect the market to react.
     
  • Look at the market in the last few seconds before the off, concentrating on those horses that you have selected above, and note any strength or resistance. For example, if you are thinking of laying a hold-up horse because it will be slow away and at the back of the field yet there is strength for it in the market then that is probably not a good idea. This indicates that people know it's a hold-up horse and therefore even if it is slow away the price may not drift and that could leave you in a world of pain. The same applies for potential leaders, etc. If you think that one is going to spring out of the stalls and lead all of the way and yet there is opposition in the market seconds before the off then it's probably not a good idea to B2L even if it does lead early.
     
  • When do finally do take a position then you need to know how you expect the market to move and in what time frame. Let's say that you want to lay a potential slow starter at 5.0 if it misses the break. If you do indeed get matched early then you now need to have a plan of how you are going to exit your position with the maximum profit. If you have laid it for £50 at 5.0 then you may be thinking of backing it back in chunks of £5 a time at anywhere between 7.0 and 10.0. If the market moves in your favour (and obviously you are expecting this to happen pretty quickly) you can maybe fire in a few back bets at good positions in the market. You then expect these to be quickly taken and therefore your green zone is expanded. I tend to like to get to a position where I have phased out most of my initial stake, in this case £50, and then you can manage the remainder accordingly. In this case if your selection is falling out the back of the telly then there is no need to hit the green button as you want to take the maximum profit.
     
  • If the market doesn't move how you expected then get the fuck out of there ASAP without hesitation. If it means taking a red just take the fucker!


If anyone has any particular questions then please let me know.

I'll try and start recording some videos and stick them up here ....

Happy trading!


When you go to bed at 20:00 and wake up at 04:00 then you just have to pick up the guitar and twang ...







26/09

+£59.99. Wank Monday!



27/09

Ayr abandoned today so couldn't be bothered ...



28/09

+£70.47. I only traded a handful of races today ...



29/09 - 30/09

I went house hunting and drinking in Ramsgate. There's plenty of cheap property down there and I may be able to buy something dependant upon how much we can get for our gaff in London.  Fingers crossed ...