Sunday, 18 November 2012

Fuck beards ... let's talk about gardens


Take a look at a recent picture of my garden and have a guess what sort of company I ran before I become an in-running player?




Yep, you guessed it .... I was a landscape gardener! Unfortunately my garden has always resembled a pikey's dumping ground. If you have a good rummage about out there you can find old radiators, scaffolding poles, a tyre, old bins full of various bits of crap, an old plastic shed and mountains of paving and paving blocks. God knows what's lurking down the far end, it looks like a scene from 'The Day of the Trffids'. Now that I'm working from home I've decided to get my arse in gear, polish the trowel, and get cracking out there. I've been spending a few hours each getting rid of some of the crap and I've already started block paving the passageway out into the garden, and if I may say so myself it's looking OK. I'll stick up a few pictures as I progress.


November 17

I'm still getting up to speed in terms of playing from home and mixing the in-running with the pre-race trading. It's OK playing from home, so I just need to get my game and stakes back up to a slightly higher level and also cut out the 1 or 2 silly mistakes that I've made this month. I reckon I've lost close to £300 by fucking up (backed a horse in 4th when I thought it was in 3rd close home and over the weekend managed to let the mouse slip onto a different selection just before I pressed the fucker!).

 
 
 
November 18

Not much happened today ...





However, the fantastic guys at Gruss have added an optional custom column to the Grid Interface that displays the first line contained in each selection's notes folder. I'll be using this to display my AW (all weather) abbreviated horse notes (and maybe the odd jumps horse notes here and there), and I'm sure that this will greatly help me in my IR trading. However, the biggest problem in compiling these notes is the time it takes, along with making sure that I only store relevant information. I did keep paper based notes back in Jan/Feb, but these just became too time consuming to maintain and update. So now I've devised a simpler and more effective way in which to store and present my notes. I've decided that for each horse I will abbreviate it's ideal trip, class and running style. My abbreviations will be as follows:


Pace

S = slow
A = average
G = good
F = fast


Position

L = leads
P = prominent
M = mid div
HU = held up
B = behind


Finishing Style

F = faded
STAV = stayed on averagely
ST = stayed on
FW = finished well
SAL = stays averagely late in the race


Other Notes

SA = slow away
MB = missed break
G = green
K = keen
O = outpaced
GW = goes well
J = jumps well
X = jumps poorly

So my notes will describe each horses ideal pace and position in a race along with it's usual running style and class limitations. So a typical example would be something like AMKSTAV7C5. This means that this horse runs best when the pace is an average one, it's positioned midfield, has been keeen in the past yet stays over a distance of 7F in class 5 races. Another example might be FOBFW7C4. This means the selection prefers a fast pace, will usually be outpaced and behind, but tends to finish well over 7F in class 4. In this example if the race was run at a slow pace then I would be a layer of this horse.


November 19

Continued compiling my horse notes today and realised, what I already knew, that they will be a super potent weapon that will potentially destroy even the keenest of track players. Although I had quite a few notes at the start of the year I now realise that maybe I didn't use them very effectively. They do take some time to compile but they should come into their own, especially when the AW really kicks into action.

Had a hopeless day in-running but feel like I'm about to get the pre-race trading by the bollox, something which I'm quite excited about!





November 20

Southwell, Folkestone and Fakenham .... oh what joy!





November 21

Bag of shite racing today but nicked a few quid.




November 22

Only 2 meetings today becase of the windy/rainy weather ... oh dear!





November 23

Bored shitless today. The place market has officially imploded ... think I might have to take the mighty step into the big bad win market!




November 24

Somebody out there must win on a Saturday? I always struggle, and today was no different. Concentrated mostly on the pre-race markets today so didn't do much IR apart from Lingfield and Wolves in the evening.




November 25

I fucking hate Sunday's ... especially when you're faced with trying to play Navan in the fucking fog! Did pretty much fuck-all until the penultimate race. I had layed McCoy for small money, but jumping the last he looked bang on for a place. The cameraman duly focused on the front 2 up towards the line, and I thought to myself, when he pans back then if McCoy is clear in 3rd I'll back him and nick a few quid back. The cameraman duly pans back, and there's McCoy plodding on for a guaranteed 3rd place, so I back him, then the horse takes 2 more strides, stumbles, and McCoy goes over his head! So onto the last race, and I should have smashed that mouse like a mad fucker. A bumper where the first 4 place, and I see Nina Carberry cantering all over them turning into the straight, and the commentator hasn't even mentioned her. So I back her for small at just over evens instead of smashing the living daylights out of her, and then back her a little bit more as she moves into second place. Nicked a few quid back but should have been a few hundred really. I really do need to grow some big fuckoff bollox and start smashing into these opportunities instead of playing safe all the time.

By the way, did I mention that the place market is now officially totally wankered? Well it is ... so I'm off to the win market. Last man out please turn off the light off ...




November 26

Fucking pants.





November 27

One fucking poxxy bag of shite meeting today .... so played the dogs instead.




November 28

Fucking hopeless.




November 29

Had a real frustrating day today. I think I'm right on the edge of making this pre-race game pay but I just keep making novicey mistakes. Just give me a few more days and the P&L should read a bit differently!







Thursday, 1 November 2012

Fuck the racing ... let's talk about BEARDS!!


November 01

Yeah, big bushy ginger beards man!

Well, as you can see I've been cultivating the mother of all beards on my boat for the last few weeks. I reckon it's a sign of masculinity and virility, but my missus hates it and one of the guys in the gym recently remarked 'what the fuck is happening with your face!'. I've been determined to grow it as big as possible, but over the last few days it's become a right pain in the ass. It's like having a huge ball of velcro on your face, and everything that comes near it gets snagged. I met a very nice young lady last Saturday night, long legs, big tits and a gorgeous boat. Unfortunately she had the hairiest minge this side of the Thames ... you can guess the rest. I had to call the Fire Brigade at 2 in the morning to get us seperated!


Anyway, here it is at it's peak:
 

What a handsome bastard ... no wonder I pulled on Saturday night!


And after a bit of beard sculpting ala Edward Scissorhands it became this:




Then I thought 'fuck it', let's try a moustache:



And then I chopped it all off .... was a great laugh while it lasted.
 

So well it's November already eh? I've been playing from home today using BF live video and pre-race trading where I can, and I think that my decision making in the pre-race markets is already improving. I've chopped down on my stakes drastically. My pre-race stakes are £11 a click, just while I'm learning the game, and my IR stakes are down to £10 a click. By lowering my IR stakes to this level I can play a lot earlier and not risk doing my bollox during the next few days while I make sure that the BF live pics and internet speed are OK.

I've noticed a few things today that could throw up nice opportunities over the next few days/weeks so I'll be keeping an eye on these to see how they progress.

 
 
 
November 02 
 
Well I was quite happy with yesterday's trading. OK it was a long day, but I choked down on the stakes and still made a few quid and enjoyed myself along the way. Playing from home is a bit different from working in an office like environment. I can make a cuppa, rustle up something to eat, or do the washing-up and have a tidy around. However, I also got interrupted quite a bit by phone calls, knocks on the door, and even by my missus asking where the fucking iron was right in the middle of a race! Do I look like I use a fucking iron?
 
Anyway, I has a poor start to today as I was playing a little more carefree and got caught by a couple early doors, albeit for small stakes. I became more focused on the job at hand as the day progressed and once again ended up with a small profit.
 
I did manage to pre-race trade a few races, and here are my thoughts:
 
  • there are different types of markets. Although that's obvious it can be pretty easy to try an adopt the same trading strategy in every race .... this will not work! The variables are such things as the meeting (Aintree has a bit more liquidity than Southwell for example), the number of runners, the prices of the favourite, etc. As I'm only a novice pre-race trader I didn't full understand the implications that these factors would have on trading the pre-race market. I think that I might compile a post dedicated to this area at some point later in the month.

  • following on from the above I noticed that some markets can be very volatile, to say the least. This can present either a huge fuck-off danger or a real good opportunity.

  • if you don't have a get-out plan for your trades then you can sometimes just sit there like a rabbit in the headlights when the market moves against you. I think that this is probably one of the most important areas in the pre-race game and needs some thought.
 
So here's how I did today:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
November 03
 
 
I had a quick look at some of the Oz races this morning are here are some of my cryptic notes that I'll use next Saturday ...
 
Oz tracks :
 
Albion Park - volatile and £5-25k matched
 
Alice Springs - steady and £8k matched
 
Ascot - steady and £55-72k matched
 
Bendigo - steady and £5-30k matched
 
Canberra (Mon) - volatile and £5k matched
 
Globe Derby - volatile and £1k matched
 
Junee - fuck all matched
 
Kalgoorlie -
 
Melton - 5K matched
 
Newcastle -
 
Scotsville - steady and £25k matched
 
Towoomba - steady and £38k matched
 
Wagga - fuck all
 
 
Well, I had a totally un-inspiring day today, lots of effort but very little reward. I'm still trying to adjust to my new way of IR trading and obviously still trying to learn the pre-race side of things. I did hang about and try and play the Breeders Cup races, but the video was so far behind that it was impossible to play IR.
 
 
 
 
 
Novermber 04
 
 
Had a hopeless start to the day and just felt like it was going to be a shit Sunday. It's strange that now I have drastically lowered my stakes I feel really pissed-off when I lose £10. I think that I was about £50 down and had the strong urge just to lay something to get back to level. I suppose that 'chase' instinct never goes away, no matter how hard you try and control it. However, I'm quite good at staying calm and carrying on, so that's what I did and gradually got a few wins on the board, mostly small in-running gains.
 
 
 
 
 
November 05
 
Another skinny day today .... nothing much happening on the trading front. I did however take part in the 'Trading for Freedom' webinar in the evening. Jack and Caan were online and analyzed one of the races that Caan had traded at Newmarket. It was really interesting listening to the guys as they explained how the market was moving and the reasons for entering trades.
 
 
 
 
 
 
November 06
 
Well I've had a few days to see how this playing from home is going, and I feel that it's now time to up my stakes back to normal levels and try and win some money. I'll have another day today fucking about with smaller stakes then stick 'em back up for Wolverhampton this evening (update: just had £105 on Lord Franklin to place for a profit of £12 and it holds on by a gnats cock .... oh the joys of IR at Wolverhampton!).
 
 
What's a tick worth?
 
As an IR player I've never really looked at the comparative value of trading a horse at low odds, let's say 1.7, against the value of trading a horse at 5.0. I was thinking about this after last nights webinar. The question I asked myself was 'if I am using a back stake of £100 on 2 horses, one at 1.7 and the other at 5.0, how many ticks does the selection have to move for me to be able to green-up for £10?'.
 
Well, if I back at 1.7 I stand to win £70. So I need to lay £110 at 1.45 to be able to green for £10, so 25 ticks. Now 1.7 is 59% in betting terms, and 1.45 is 68%, so thats a difference of 9%.
 
If I back at 5.0 I stand to win £400. So I need to lay £110 at 4.4 to green for £10, so 6 ticks. Now 5.0 is 20% in betting terms, and 4.4 is 23%, so that's a difference of 3%.
 
Now it's only 17:52, but I'm yawning, tired, and I haven't got a fucking clue what all that means, but perhaps tomorrow I'll have a look at it and see if it makes any sense, or if it is a useful or shite piece of information ... fuck knows!
 
 
 
 
 
 
November 07
 
Felt as though I was getting back up to speed today. Didn't make a lot of profit but traded 23 races with only 1 loss, so I feel like I'm slowly beginning to get to grips with the pre-race game.
 
 
 
 
 
 
November 08
 
Cracked on again today and finally won a few quid instead of the relatively small amounts that I've been getting of late.
 
 
 
November 09
 
Already had to fuck about this morning going to the bank, post office, chemist, etc. If you're driving then it takes fucking ages to get parked anywhere these days. We're becoming a nation governed by zillions of rules. Next time you go out for a drive take a look at how many fucking signs there are everywhere, most of them telling you what you cannot do, don't turn left, don't park here, go straight ahead, fuck off out of the bus lane even if it means that you block the traffic coming the other way etc. And there's probably some little spotty twat sitting on the other end of all these cameras waiting to send you an £80 fine if you fart too loudly. Bollox the lot of it!! So I'm already a bit knackered and it's only 11:23, so I'll have to play carefully today.
 
... well I should have played carefully, but .... dropped a bollock late on at Wolves when I thought something was holding on for 3rd when it was actually only holding on for 4th .... DOH! This type of balls-up has happened to me in the past when I've been tired. Not matter how hard you try it's just not wise to try and play when you feel knackered. Got a bit back later on and I'm only really aiming to get around £1500 this month, as it's my first month playing from home, so that shouldn't be a problem.
 
 
 
 
 
November 10 - 96.0kg
 
Jumped on the spinning bike for 20 minutes this morning as I'm turning into a real fat bastard. Aiming to get down to below 93.0kg by the end of November.
 
 
 
 
 
November 11
 
Another typical wanky Sunday in November.
 
 
 
 
 
November 12
 
Had a fucking hopeless effort at IR today and actually laid 3 winners in the fucking place market!! Fucking useless!! However, my pre-race trading seems to be improving, so that may keep me from going skint!
 
 
 
 
 
November 13
 
Bounced back today with a few small wins. Adjusted my Gruss IR stakes down to £55 per click as they're a bit out of sync with my pre-race stakes and it's a bummer if you nick a few small wins pre-race to then go and blow it with one click IR.
 
 
 
 
 
November 14
 
Had a mixture of babysitting and laying some block paving this morning! Ended up darting in and out of the garden between races to check my cement, so the day was a bit dis-organised to say the least. Nibbled a few more quid, so will now have to start to become a bit more aggressive to ramp up the winnings back to a normal level.
 
 
 
 
 
November 15
 
Decided that I had to get back down to the gym today as once again I'm becoming a fat bastard. Got myself ready only to find that I had a flat battery! I was all set for action, so I just jumped on the bike and cycled. The weather was quite crisp so had a nice 20 minute or so ride then beat the shite out of the bag in the gym. Missed a few of the early races and didn't get to see any of the Irish racing because of the overlaps. Nicked a few quid ...
 
 
 
 
November 16
 
Really enjoyed playing today as I felt that I was making good progress with my pre-race trading, although I lost maybe £30 I felt as though my analysis was improving, and where I made mistakes I knew exactly what I had done wrong. I'm pretty confident that I can start to make it pay over the next few weeks.