Tuesday, 1 October 2013

Well Wasn't That a Lovely Summer!


Well that was a fantastic summer in regards of the weather! I spent plenty of time down on the coast generally enjoying myself, cycling, sitting in the sun and getting pissed! I had the chance to visit a few new pubs along the way and I have to say that it was a very enjoyable experience. However, that's all behind us and now it's time to settle in for the hard winter graft.

There were 141 meetings during September and it looks like about 120 scheduled for October, so that's about a 15% reduction in the number of opportunities. From memory the summer months max out at around 180 meetings per month, so we have approximately 30% less meetings per month in the winter, and sometimes even less when we get cancellations due to adverse weather ... blimey we're all DOOMED!


Fortunately we can all go dogging when the horse racing finishes!



I normally do play all of the evening horse racing during the summer so instead of the horses I'll just switch to trading the dogs in the evening. The dogs are televised on Thu-Sun evenings where they show 2 meetings per night on RPGTV (channel 212). I'll also have a crack at the early morning dogs and see how that goes.

There's plenty of opportunities to be had over the jumps so I'll be updating my abbreviated horse notes which I keep stored on Gruss. These are invaluable and help in winning a few quid.

Anyway, let's crack-on in October and see what happens!

PS The diet is going OK but I really need to make a push in October to get down to maybe 90kg before the hard work starts in Nov/Dec and Jan!


01/10

+£119.18. A pretty good start to the month considering the amount and standard of racing today. Did OK during the day but got fuck-all at Kempton in the evening. However I was happy that I got over £10 on the dogs and if I can keep that going and maybe increase it a bit that'll get me a few quid on the month.





02/10

+£42.25. Pretty much nothing of interest happened today. Scraped a few quid from the dogs and I'll be pretty dissapointed if I don't get at least £300 from the dogs this month. I think that my understanding of the horse pre-race markets is gradually improving and maybe I need to be a bit more aggressive when I spot potential moves. We'll see ....




PS My diet is starting to kick-in and as I sit here typing this I'm FUCKING STARVING! I'll update my 'Body Transformation' blog when I hit 95kg ... which might be tomorrow if I avoid the biscuits on top of the freezer!.



03/10

-£98.09. Started the day in a bad mood (no guesses for who put me in a bad mood). Upped my stakes in the morning dog racing and had a fucking nightmare. Instead of trading aggressively I suppose that I traded wildly. Just goes to show how your mood affects your trading.


Trading the Dogs Using a Highly Analytical Approach



I then continued my shite form into the afternoon so as to complete a fucking nightmare of a day. Managed to set light to £160 in one race in Ireland after which I had to go and stand in my garden before I fucking exploded! However this balls-up kind of stung me into action and I had a few good pre-race trades so there was some positives that came from the day.

I've finally realised that I'm sick and tired of poncing about, therefore I'm going to start crashing in, so expect a few days of £200+ intermingled with the odd three figure loss day.



04/10

+£22.74. Seemed to be running in treacle today and felt quite frustrated at the end of the afternoon. However, my pre-race game is really coming together and I'm feeling more and more comfortable when I'm trading. I'm beginning to get quite efficient at recognising good entry points and when to sit tight and when to exit quickly. It's Saturday tomorrow so maybe I can up my stakes a little and be a bit more aggressive, although having said that I find Saturday's to be busy in-running days so I might have to wait until Sunday before I have a good crack.





I had a go on the evening dogs but made a couple of silly mistakes late in the evening when I got involved way too early and fell straight into a couple of traps set by some crafty fuckers obviously manipulating the market and waiting for dozy twats like me to come along and fall straight into their trap ... fuckers!



05/10

-£16.34. Fucking pants today! Won pennies during the day and didn't really get the chance to do much pre-race trading. Knocked-out my meagre winnings backing a donkey at Wolves and then had a mini-meltdown and managed to turn a small green on the dogs into a bigger loss when it went in-running, entirely my fault, and the 6.0 shot that carried my red sprang out of trap one in a handicap and led all the way! (without that mistake I would have won around a pony on the dogs so that gives me some hope).

Tried pre-race at Wolverhampton but the markets were all over the place and I probably didn't use the right strategy so found them hard and frustrating. In fact I was so angry that I put on the gloves and smashed the fuck out of my heavy bag, even though it's not hanging. I just sat on a stool and punched! It's a professional 'Ringside' fully leather bad that weighs almost 50kg so it takes a pasting! PS The bag won ...





I've always known that I tend to prefer entering the market with a lay bet as my first trade. I've tried hard to rectify this but I'm still predominately looking to catch a move on a drifter as opposed to a horse that is shortening in the market. The one problem with entering the market with a lay trade is that your exposure is higher than if you had entered with a back trade, asssuming we're talking about odds of 2.0 and greater. It also restricts the full usage of your bank. For example, if your bank size is £100 then you can only enter a lay of £50 on a horse trading at 3.0. However you can enter a back of the full £100 if you think that the price is going down. Obviously you have to be careful in this situation as if the price moves against you then you will find yourself unable to take an equal red as you don't have enough funds the cover the relevant lay bet. It can also be unnerving if you lay first as your exposure could be quite high, and this is the time you don't want BF to crash, your PC to switch itself off or your internet to fail! So over the next few weeks I'll be looking to identify horses that are shortening as opposed to drifting and also going through some old market recordings to make sure that the signals that I look for in trying to predict a drifter are the same as spotting those about to, or in the processs, of shortening.



06/10

+£21.76. Although I've been trying to master this pre-race trading on and off for about a year now I find that I'm always learning ... and that's a good thing. On one of my posts above I mentioned that I was going to concentrate more on identifying swing trades or big moves, which initially seemed to be going well, until today. I don't know if it was just me, but the markets seemed totally random today, with prices jumping all over the place. The thing is I only realised that I had to adopt my style to these type of markets late on in the day, so I spent the first two hours poncing about looking for swing trades and not even realising that most of the markets seemed to be flying about within a broad range of 5 or 6 ticks or so, well that's what it seemed like to my novice eye.

I managed to capture a screenshot from the 16:35 at Uttoxeter (see below). This was one of the more sane races, but even so, take a look at the market overview graph!




I'm nothing but persistent, so I'm going to have a crack at the dogs tonight with my main aim of staying out of trouble and not going in-running!







07/10

+£38.25. A fairly typical Monday with very few races. The 'Bomber' seems to have re-surfaced which can cause havoc in the market, but get him right and there's money to be made!








27 comments:

  1. Hahaha...brilliant Dave, very funny. How you trade under those conditions and make the profits you do is unreal!

    On a serious note, very good video, and it made me re-think how I trade the dogs. I have been trading them like the horses, but you are right, the volatile movements and lack of liquidity does mean they should be traded differently.

    An eye-opener, buddy. Thank you :)

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hiya Dean.

    Yep it does get a biit crazy in here at times! As you probably heard my mindset wasn't actually that positive yesterday morning and hence the crap result.

    Yep the dogs generally seem to go in one direction. Obviously there are always exceptions but I think it's a case of spotting gaps and going with the flow most of the time.

    Cheers - Dave.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Dave ... Great advice on here ... I see a lot of your winnings are in the place market .. How do you trade them..? I've tried in running watching the race on tv but seems quite tricky ... And help would be very appreciated .
    Thanks

    Steve

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hiys Stevo.

    Yep most of my winnings still come from in-running in the place market. I use Betfair Live Video and Racing UK pictures (ATR pics are far too behind). I use Gruss software and have some custom columns set to various prices. I have become more of a backer recently and I press the relevant custom column price when I think that ahorse is going to place.

    If you need any more info then pls let me know.

    Cheers - Dave.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Thanks dave ..very useful info ... It's great to have help..

    Cheers

    Steve

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi Dave..good blog mate! Dave is gruss any different to geeks toy as I have just started in running with the Toy? Also just had a look at to be placed markets in running and there seems to be not much liquidity? Is it a case of getting on what you can at low odds when a place is inevitable ie with 100 yards to go or something? Need a massively high strike rate if backing at 1.10 or under all the time? Thanks Dave as Stevo says above appreciate help for us who are new here. Simeon

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hiya Simeon.

    Yep Gruss is probably more suited to in-running. You can set buttons to bet or lay at certain prices which is really useful. I'll put a screenshot up later and talk a bit more about how I approach in-running.

    Cheers - Dave.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hello Dave...thanks a million for that as be really good to see how the master approaches in running. Had a go today but kept ending up with sub 1.1 for my 50 quid..fat fingers too slow!! Thanks again mate Simon

      Delete
    2. Hi Simon.

      Not too sure about that 'master' tag!.

      If you are using Gruss are you using the 'override odds' and/or 'fill or kill' features?

      Cheers - Dave.

      Delete
  8. Hi all .... I was the same today hitting 1.02 etc .. However it was good to feel secure that it was a definite win in the place market and once I up the stakes then happy days .. Bloody great market to bet in thanks again Dave ...

    Steven

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Steven.

      It's good when it works but you feel a bit of a pratt when you eventually back a 1.01 loser! I've plenty experience of doing that!

      Cheers - Dave.

      Delete
  9. Hi Stevo,

    I would not take it for granted that it is a definite win all the time. 1.01 shots do get beaten. Plus, as I said above, be very interesting to hear Dave's thoughts as if you are constantly backing at say 1.01 Steve, you need to be right 100 times out of a 100 and need Lady Luck to always prevent the impossible from happening. You may remember Cheltenham last year a horse called Oscar Delta, 5 lengths clear and unseated the rider on the flat 100 yards from the post!!! If you had lumped on that at 1.01 or 1.02 (albeit in the win market), it could be a long way back.

    Interesting discussion though, glad I found this blog as it is not only helpful but entertaining too!!

    Cheers
    Simon

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Simon.

      Yep when you're willing to take 1.01 then it's all about timing. Sometimes it's a gift of a few quid, and maybe more if you catch some juicier prices, but get involved too early and the final furlong can seem to last for ages ... and if it looks as though you've got it wrong then it's almost impossible to salvage anything from the wreckage.

      Cheers - Dave.

      Delete
  10. P.S Stevo, it is also a case of getting fully matched at those odds from what I found yesterday. Even for a £50 bet at say 1.08, if horse is nailed on to place, I was lucky to get part matched at 1.02 !! I agree if you could guarantee getting £500 matched at 1.1 every race, everyday then happy days, but liquidity in place market may not be that great sometimes. But then I have only been doing the place market for 3 days, so what do I know!!!!!!! lol Cheers Simon

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Simon.

      Yep the liquidity in the place market is dire compared to the good old days. Still enough to scrape a few pennies but you're not going to get rich!

      Cheers - Dave.

      Delete
  11. Dave, see that ******* smashing up the pre-race markets on the last few faves? Caught me napping 3 times he did for big reds. Hope you had a good day mate.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Simon.

      The 'Bomber' ... yep see my latest post!

      Cheers - Dave.

      Delete
  12. Hi Simeon thanks for your comments .. It's good to have a discussion and learn as we go ... Dave has lots of success I'm following his lead .. Let's all do well

    Regards

    Steven

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Steven.

      Yep I find it interesting to follow other traders and see how they are doing ... crack on!

      Cheers - Dave.

      Delete
  13. Ps Simeon are you watching the races on betfair video or by some other means ?

    Steven

    ReplyDelete
  14. Hi Dave...I am not using Gruss at the moment, as just paid £120 for lifetime licence with the Toy. Is it not feasible to use the Toy in terms of the features required? As you said above Dave, would be very grateful if you would " put a screenshot up later and talk a bit more about how I approach in-running" That would be a big help to us, thank you.

    Stevo, I use Betfair video pictures as found they are the fastest but obviously still slower than the on course players. It is just a case of speed and trying to get matched. As Dave says above though, get involved too early can make the last furlong seem like 3 miles!!!!!!! Also it definitely is not a get rich method of trading from what I have seen, but it all adds up I suppose. Cheers, Simon

    ReplyDelete
  15. Thanks simon ... Appreciated ..

    Steven

    ReplyDelete
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