Friday, 28 December 2012

Norovirus eh?


That motherfucker hurts!




There I was yesterday morning shopping for a £5.99 kettle in Argos and 3 hours later I'm shitting my pants, chucking up yellow shit with an acidity level of Sulphuric acid and trying to stem the stream of snot and blood from my nose while trying not to cry and scream too loudly!

So that about summed-up my effort in December. Things got really hard (hence the £5.99 kettle) and I'm not too sure were we go from here. The summer months yielded an OK result (although not exactly what I wanted at the start of the year) and looking back on my P&L for previous years December has never yielded above average profits.

So I need a few days to contemplate how I approach 2013, therefore I might fuck-off to Ramsgate to see in the New Year outside the Belgian Cafe while watching the fireworks once this Norovirus fucks off.

Saturday, 1 December 2012

December


Well last month was an assault on my nervous system and my wallet. I've managed to do this, but in reverse!



I've never known the IR game to be in such a wanky state of affairs (well at least in the place market). November was a real struggle both in-running and trying to learn the pre-race game, all of it played havoc with my stress levels and I felt like going out and getting well and truly wankered last night.

I did go out for a few beers but ended up even more depressed when my local boozer was more like a morgue as opposed to how a boozer is supposed to be, especially on a Friday night.



If I was single I'd move tomorrow to the coast, but unfortunately I have my missus in tow and she has the ambition and drive of a sloth ... there, just had to get that off my chest.

I'm trying hard to master this pre-race game and I had a textbook day today, albeit for small stakes and small winnings. I played nicely all afternoon and then went and gave 50% of it back in the last race. That's how it goes I suppose.

As for this month, well I'm going to up my stakes back to their normal level and just try and plod on. As mentioned previously I do need to get into the win market but that's quite hard to do when I'm spending most of my time trying to learn the pre-race game.

And Wolves just been frozen off for tonight ... so it's off to channel 212 for a bit of dogging!

Sunday, 18 November 2012

Fuck beards ... let's talk about gardens


Take a look at a recent picture of my garden and have a guess what sort of company I ran before I become an in-running player?




Yep, you guessed it .... I was a landscape gardener! Unfortunately my garden has always resembled a pikey's dumping ground. If you have a good rummage about out there you can find old radiators, scaffolding poles, a tyre, old bins full of various bits of crap, an old plastic shed and mountains of paving and paving blocks. God knows what's lurking down the far end, it looks like a scene from 'The Day of the Trffids'. Now that I'm working from home I've decided to get my arse in gear, polish the trowel, and get cracking out there. I've been spending a few hours each getting rid of some of the crap and I've already started block paving the passageway out into the garden, and if I may say so myself it's looking OK. I'll stick up a few pictures as I progress.


November 17

I'm still getting up to speed in terms of playing from home and mixing the in-running with the pre-race trading. It's OK playing from home, so I just need to get my game and stakes back up to a slightly higher level and also cut out the 1 or 2 silly mistakes that I've made this month. I reckon I've lost close to £300 by fucking up (backed a horse in 4th when I thought it was in 3rd close home and over the weekend managed to let the mouse slip onto a different selection just before I pressed the fucker!).

 
 
 
November 18

Not much happened today ...





However, the fantastic guys at Gruss have added an optional custom column to the Grid Interface that displays the first line contained in each selection's notes folder. I'll be using this to display my AW (all weather) abbreviated horse notes (and maybe the odd jumps horse notes here and there), and I'm sure that this will greatly help me in my IR trading. However, the biggest problem in compiling these notes is the time it takes, along with making sure that I only store relevant information. I did keep paper based notes back in Jan/Feb, but these just became too time consuming to maintain and update. So now I've devised a simpler and more effective way in which to store and present my notes. I've decided that for each horse I will abbreviate it's ideal trip, class and running style. My abbreviations will be as follows:


Pace

S = slow
A = average
G = good
F = fast


Position

L = leads
P = prominent
M = mid div
HU = held up
B = behind


Finishing Style

F = faded
STAV = stayed on averagely
ST = stayed on
FW = finished well
SAL = stays averagely late in the race


Other Notes

SA = slow away
MB = missed break
G = green
K = keen
O = outpaced
GW = goes well
J = jumps well
X = jumps poorly

So my notes will describe each horses ideal pace and position in a race along with it's usual running style and class limitations. So a typical example would be something like AMKSTAV7C5. This means that this horse runs best when the pace is an average one, it's positioned midfield, has been keeen in the past yet stays over a distance of 7F in class 5 races. Another example might be FOBFW7C4. This means the selection prefers a fast pace, will usually be outpaced and behind, but tends to finish well over 7F in class 4. In this example if the race was run at a slow pace then I would be a layer of this horse.


November 19

Continued compiling my horse notes today and realised, what I already knew, that they will be a super potent weapon that will potentially destroy even the keenest of track players. Although I had quite a few notes at the start of the year I now realise that maybe I didn't use them very effectively. They do take some time to compile but they should come into their own, especially when the AW really kicks into action.

Had a hopeless day in-running but feel like I'm about to get the pre-race trading by the bollox, something which I'm quite excited about!





November 20

Southwell, Folkestone and Fakenham .... oh what joy!





November 21

Bag of shite racing today but nicked a few quid.




November 22

Only 2 meetings today becase of the windy/rainy weather ... oh dear!





November 23

Bored shitless today. The place market has officially imploded ... think I might have to take the mighty step into the big bad win market!




November 24

Somebody out there must win on a Saturday? I always struggle, and today was no different. Concentrated mostly on the pre-race markets today so didn't do much IR apart from Lingfield and Wolves in the evening.




November 25

I fucking hate Sunday's ... especially when you're faced with trying to play Navan in the fucking fog! Did pretty much fuck-all until the penultimate race. I had layed McCoy for small money, but jumping the last he looked bang on for a place. The cameraman duly focused on the front 2 up towards the line, and I thought to myself, when he pans back then if McCoy is clear in 3rd I'll back him and nick a few quid back. The cameraman duly pans back, and there's McCoy plodding on for a guaranteed 3rd place, so I back him, then the horse takes 2 more strides, stumbles, and McCoy goes over his head! So onto the last race, and I should have smashed that mouse like a mad fucker. A bumper where the first 4 place, and I see Nina Carberry cantering all over them turning into the straight, and the commentator hasn't even mentioned her. So I back her for small at just over evens instead of smashing the living daylights out of her, and then back her a little bit more as she moves into second place. Nicked a few quid back but should have been a few hundred really. I really do need to grow some big fuckoff bollox and start smashing into these opportunities instead of playing safe all the time.

By the way, did I mention that the place market is now officially totally wankered? Well it is ... so I'm off to the win market. Last man out please turn off the light off ...




November 26

Fucking pants.





November 27

One fucking poxxy bag of shite meeting today .... so played the dogs instead.




November 28

Fucking hopeless.




November 29

Had a real frustrating day today. I think I'm right on the edge of making this pre-race game pay but I just keep making novicey mistakes. Just give me a few more days and the P&L should read a bit differently!







Thursday, 1 November 2012

Fuck the racing ... let's talk about BEARDS!!


November 01

Yeah, big bushy ginger beards man!

Well, as you can see I've been cultivating the mother of all beards on my boat for the last few weeks. I reckon it's a sign of masculinity and virility, but my missus hates it and one of the guys in the gym recently remarked 'what the fuck is happening with your face!'. I've been determined to grow it as big as possible, but over the last few days it's become a right pain in the ass. It's like having a huge ball of velcro on your face, and everything that comes near it gets snagged. I met a very nice young lady last Saturday night, long legs, big tits and a gorgeous boat. Unfortunately she had the hairiest minge this side of the Thames ... you can guess the rest. I had to call the Fire Brigade at 2 in the morning to get us seperated!


Anyway, here it is at it's peak:
 

What a handsome bastard ... no wonder I pulled on Saturday night!


And after a bit of beard sculpting ala Edward Scissorhands it became this:




Then I thought 'fuck it', let's try a moustache:



And then I chopped it all off .... was a great laugh while it lasted.
 

So well it's November already eh? I've been playing from home today using BF live video and pre-race trading where I can, and I think that my decision making in the pre-race markets is already improving. I've chopped down on my stakes drastically. My pre-race stakes are £11 a click, just while I'm learning the game, and my IR stakes are down to £10 a click. By lowering my IR stakes to this level I can play a lot earlier and not risk doing my bollox during the next few days while I make sure that the BF live pics and internet speed are OK.

I've noticed a few things today that could throw up nice opportunities over the next few days/weeks so I'll be keeping an eye on these to see how they progress.

 
 
 
November 02 
 
Well I was quite happy with yesterday's trading. OK it was a long day, but I choked down on the stakes and still made a few quid and enjoyed myself along the way. Playing from home is a bit different from working in an office like environment. I can make a cuppa, rustle up something to eat, or do the washing-up and have a tidy around. However, I also got interrupted quite a bit by phone calls, knocks on the door, and even by my missus asking where the fucking iron was right in the middle of a race! Do I look like I use a fucking iron?
 
Anyway, I has a poor start to today as I was playing a little more carefree and got caught by a couple early doors, albeit for small stakes. I became more focused on the job at hand as the day progressed and once again ended up with a small profit.
 
I did manage to pre-race trade a few races, and here are my thoughts:
 
  • there are different types of markets. Although that's obvious it can be pretty easy to try an adopt the same trading strategy in every race .... this will not work! The variables are such things as the meeting (Aintree has a bit more liquidity than Southwell for example), the number of runners, the prices of the favourite, etc. As I'm only a novice pre-race trader I didn't full understand the implications that these factors would have on trading the pre-race market. I think that I might compile a post dedicated to this area at some point later in the month.

  • following on from the above I noticed that some markets can be very volatile, to say the least. This can present either a huge fuck-off danger or a real good opportunity.

  • if you don't have a get-out plan for your trades then you can sometimes just sit there like a rabbit in the headlights when the market moves against you. I think that this is probably one of the most important areas in the pre-race game and needs some thought.
 
So here's how I did today:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
November 03
 
 
I had a quick look at some of the Oz races this morning are here are some of my cryptic notes that I'll use next Saturday ...
 
Oz tracks :
 
Albion Park - volatile and £5-25k matched
 
Alice Springs - steady and £8k matched
 
Ascot - steady and £55-72k matched
 
Bendigo - steady and £5-30k matched
 
Canberra (Mon) - volatile and £5k matched
 
Globe Derby - volatile and £1k matched
 
Junee - fuck all matched
 
Kalgoorlie -
 
Melton - 5K matched
 
Newcastle -
 
Scotsville - steady and £25k matched
 
Towoomba - steady and £38k matched
 
Wagga - fuck all
 
 
Well, I had a totally un-inspiring day today, lots of effort but very little reward. I'm still trying to adjust to my new way of IR trading and obviously still trying to learn the pre-race side of things. I did hang about and try and play the Breeders Cup races, but the video was so far behind that it was impossible to play IR.
 
 
 
 
 
Novermber 04
 
 
Had a hopeless start to the day and just felt like it was going to be a shit Sunday. It's strange that now I have drastically lowered my stakes I feel really pissed-off when I lose £10. I think that I was about £50 down and had the strong urge just to lay something to get back to level. I suppose that 'chase' instinct never goes away, no matter how hard you try and control it. However, I'm quite good at staying calm and carrying on, so that's what I did and gradually got a few wins on the board, mostly small in-running gains.
 
 
 
 
 
November 05
 
Another skinny day today .... nothing much happening on the trading front. I did however take part in the 'Trading for Freedom' webinar in the evening. Jack and Caan were online and analyzed one of the races that Caan had traded at Newmarket. It was really interesting listening to the guys as they explained how the market was moving and the reasons for entering trades.
 
 
 
 
 
 
November 06
 
Well I've had a few days to see how this playing from home is going, and I feel that it's now time to up my stakes back to normal levels and try and win some money. I'll have another day today fucking about with smaller stakes then stick 'em back up for Wolverhampton this evening (update: just had £105 on Lord Franklin to place for a profit of £12 and it holds on by a gnats cock .... oh the joys of IR at Wolverhampton!).
 
 
What's a tick worth?
 
As an IR player I've never really looked at the comparative value of trading a horse at low odds, let's say 1.7, against the value of trading a horse at 5.0. I was thinking about this after last nights webinar. The question I asked myself was 'if I am using a back stake of £100 on 2 horses, one at 1.7 and the other at 5.0, how many ticks does the selection have to move for me to be able to green-up for £10?'.
 
Well, if I back at 1.7 I stand to win £70. So I need to lay £110 at 1.45 to be able to green for £10, so 25 ticks. Now 1.7 is 59% in betting terms, and 1.45 is 68%, so thats a difference of 9%.
 
If I back at 5.0 I stand to win £400. So I need to lay £110 at 4.4 to green for £10, so 6 ticks. Now 5.0 is 20% in betting terms, and 4.4 is 23%, so that's a difference of 3%.
 
Now it's only 17:52, but I'm yawning, tired, and I haven't got a fucking clue what all that means, but perhaps tomorrow I'll have a look at it and see if it makes any sense, or if it is a useful or shite piece of information ... fuck knows!
 
 
 
 
 
 
November 07
 
Felt as though I was getting back up to speed today. Didn't make a lot of profit but traded 23 races with only 1 loss, so I feel like I'm slowly beginning to get to grips with the pre-race game.
 
 
 
 
 
 
November 08
 
Cracked on again today and finally won a few quid instead of the relatively small amounts that I've been getting of late.
 
 
 
November 09
 
Already had to fuck about this morning going to the bank, post office, chemist, etc. If you're driving then it takes fucking ages to get parked anywhere these days. We're becoming a nation governed by zillions of rules. Next time you go out for a drive take a look at how many fucking signs there are everywhere, most of them telling you what you cannot do, don't turn left, don't park here, go straight ahead, fuck off out of the bus lane even if it means that you block the traffic coming the other way etc. And there's probably some little spotty twat sitting on the other end of all these cameras waiting to send you an £80 fine if you fart too loudly. Bollox the lot of it!! So I'm already a bit knackered and it's only 11:23, so I'll have to play carefully today.
 
... well I should have played carefully, but .... dropped a bollock late on at Wolves when I thought something was holding on for 3rd when it was actually only holding on for 4th .... DOH! This type of balls-up has happened to me in the past when I've been tired. Not matter how hard you try it's just not wise to try and play when you feel knackered. Got a bit back later on and I'm only really aiming to get around £1500 this month, as it's my first month playing from home, so that shouldn't be a problem.
 
 
 
 
 
November 10 - 96.0kg
 
Jumped on the spinning bike for 20 minutes this morning as I'm turning into a real fat bastard. Aiming to get down to below 93.0kg by the end of November.
 
 
 
 
 
November 11
 
Another typical wanky Sunday in November.
 
 
 
 
 
November 12
 
Had a fucking hopeless effort at IR today and actually laid 3 winners in the fucking place market!! Fucking useless!! However, my pre-race trading seems to be improving, so that may keep me from going skint!
 
 
 
 
 
November 13
 
Bounced back today with a few small wins. Adjusted my Gruss IR stakes down to £55 per click as they're a bit out of sync with my pre-race stakes and it's a bummer if you nick a few small wins pre-race to then go and blow it with one click IR.
 
 
 
 
 
November 14
 
Had a mixture of babysitting and laying some block paving this morning! Ended up darting in and out of the garden between races to check my cement, so the day was a bit dis-organised to say the least. Nibbled a few more quid, so will now have to start to become a bit more aggressive to ramp up the winnings back to a normal level.
 
 
 
 
 
November 15
 
Decided that I had to get back down to the gym today as once again I'm becoming a fat bastard. Got myself ready only to find that I had a flat battery! I was all set for action, so I just jumped on the bike and cycled. The weather was quite crisp so had a nice 20 minute or so ride then beat the shite out of the bag in the gym. Missed a few of the early races and didn't get to see any of the Irish racing because of the overlaps. Nicked a few quid ...
 
 
 
 
November 16
 
Really enjoyed playing today as I felt that I was making good progress with my pre-race trading, although I lost maybe £30 I felt as though my analysis was improving, and where I made mistakes I knew exactly what I had done wrong. I'm pretty confident that I can start to make it pay over the next few weeks.
 
 
 

Friday, 26 October 2012

A busy end to October


Well October has seen quite a few changes in the IR market. The slow down of the SIS pictures and the associated severe lack of liquidity in the place market has really made it a hell of a lot harder to win nice sums of cash. Luckily I did kinda see this coming (back in March I think I mentioned on this Blog that the IR game would possibly implode at some point in the future). So now I'm really starting to focus on the pre-race markets. By moving into these markets I'll no longer have to worry about paying a premium for the SIS and TurfTV pics and I'll also be moving into a market (the pre-race win market) where I believe that the liquidity is still good enough for me to make cash. OK, I know that some tracks can be light in pre-race cash, but I still think that there's more than enough to meet my meagre requirements.

Accordingly I've beem immersing myself in the content of Jack Birkhead's training site 'Trading for Freedom'. I've already whizzed through his 'Journey' videos and they're great. I've traded a few races (with mixed results!), but now I'm pretty sure that I'm beginning to get the basic hang of how these markets work. Jack and Caan also presented a really interesting Webinar in the week and I found this really useful. The guys will be running these on a weekly basis and I think that they will be a great success, with like-minded traders meeting-up once a week for advice/chat/inspiration etc. PS Im not financially involved in any way with Jack's website, I just mention it as I think that it's a great and pretty unique way in which to learn a trade.

So I've been having a bit of a shop around on Gumtree, eBay and Amazon and my home setup now looks like this:



I have 2 Viewsonic 23in LED monitors attached to an Acer slimline running an i5 processor with 6gb of RAM. My SKY+ HD box (for ATR and RUK) is connected to a HDMI splitter which sends one signal to my TV and another to my left monitor using a HDMI to DVI converter. Sound comes from the audio outputs on my Sky box to speakers on my desk. All of this is completed by an emergency bottle of Hoegaarden (only to be opened in times of stress and/or excitement!).

As from the start of November I'll be trading from home. Obviously it's going to be a steep learning curve and I'm going to have to see if I can combine a bit of IR with a bit of pre-race trading. I would imagine that I'll pre-race trade on the SIS/ATR meetings and see if I can still nick a bit of IR money using RUK.

You never know, I might become the new Adam Heathcote!

Wednesday, 17 October 2012

Mid October .... and the wheels have come off!


What the fuck is happening to the IR markets eh? I just took a look at my P&L for September and October to date and I nearly fell off my chair! I knew that things were getting tough but fuck me it's becoming near on impossible to win anything. One noticeable change is that the SIS pics have slowed down even further and there are reports that we're as much as 5 seconds behind the live action at certain tracks. In my book that makes IR playing pretty much a non-starter on a lot of tracks, unless you know the form like the back of you hand. The only way to try and compensate for this delay is to know the general running styles of certain horses in each race an to play relatively early, as the thieving track mongrels generally wait to the later stages of each race, where they feast like rabid hyenas over the scraps of money still in the market.





Therefore I've decided to try a few days playing from home using BF live pictures and Racing UK, with more of an emphasis on using smaller stakes and playing earlier in the race in an effort to get involved before the market gets raped by the above mongrels. This means I'll have to get a Racing Post subscription on the go and start watching some of the race replays again, although as mentioned previously I don't want to spend too much time watching the replays as it's as boring as fuck. I'll also be making much more of an effort in the pre-race market so that I don't have to be dependant on the fast SIS and TurfTV pics.
It's still early days in my pre-race career, but I think that I've already learnt a lot just by playing a few races in the past few weeks, mostly what NOT to do! I know that there are a few good pre-race judges out there who make it pay, so that gives me the confidence that it can be done. I've just joined 'Trading for Freedom' which is Jack Birkhead's new training site. I know Jack from a few years back and I have to say that his pre-race training videos are great. I'm going through these at the moment and they should fast-track me into the pre-race markets. All I'll be looking to do for the next few weeks at least is to nick a few quid while I'm trying to learn the game.



Tuesday, 4 September 2012

It's Time to Have a Bash in the Pre-Race Market!


Pre-Race Market

I tend to struggle at certain tracks, such as the SIS tracks over the jumps. Additionally, at some point I'll have to move over to Betdaq to avoid this poxxy 20% Premium Charge, which really eats into my profits. If I can make a fist of it in the pre-race markets then I'll be able to play from home, ideally somewhere on the coast, which will also help cut down on my daily expenses.
So I'll be firing up a new Betdaq account and sticking a few quid in and having a crack. If there are any good pre-races traders out there willing to give me a bit of advice then feel free to contact me! I know that Jack Birkhead from 'Sports Trading Journey' is one of the leaders in the field of pre-race market training so I'll be giving him a shout as I know that he has some new material about to be released. I've also been following the progress of Caan Berry over at 'Trading a Profit' and it seems like after a lot of hard work he's also cracked the pre-race market and is now in the process of offering 1 to 1 training.


Betdaq

Well I've already encountered the first hurdle! I've downloaded both Gruss for Betdaq and Geeks Toy for Betdaq and neither show the 'Last price' or 'Total matched' figures, which is obviously a pain in the arse. Apparently the Betdaq API doesn't return this info for some strange reason, so that's going to make things a bit tougher before I've even fucking started! Actually, I can't even believe that people can even trade with these missing, so I suppose most of the money on Betdaq is cross-matching between Betfair? I've contacted Betdaq about this issue and apparently they will be providing this data at some point in the future but can't be specific about a date.


Pre Race Dog and Horse Trading Results

The horse racing figures below are purely from where I've had an opportunity to pre-race trade in between my IR trading. The dog racing figures come from a combination of trading and also using a system I've devised which usually nicks me a few quid a day.


04/09 - won £4.03 on the horses and won £4.97 on the dogs = +£9.00. Total = +£9.00

05/09 - lost £0.98 on the horses and won £12.40 on the dogs = +£11.42. Total = +£20.42

06/09 - won £7.28 on the horses and lost £7.70 on the dogs = -£0.42. Total = +£20.00

07/09 - lost £8.24 on the horses and won £48.58 on the dogs = +£40.34. Total = +£60.34

Well, I'm only on my 4th day of trying this pre-race game and I've just fallen for the 'had it on the wrong channel and all of a sudden they went in-play!' ... whoops ... grabbed a quick £10 red and chastised myself for not paying attention!

08/09 - won £4.62 on the horses and won £29.12 on the dogs = +£33.74. Total = +£94.10

09/09 - won £28.25 on the horses. Total = +£122.35

I think that I'm also going to try to implement my greyhound system on the pre-race horse markets for small stakes to see if I get any joy. I'll run this alongside my pre-race trades and see how it goes.

10/09 - won £103.20 on the horses and lost £55.60 on the dogs = +£57.80. Total = +£180.15

I've somehow slipped back into trying to be more of a layer, despite the fact that I mentioned a while back that I was struggling with the laying but doing OK with the backing. So fuck knows what's happening, but I'm not having a particularly good day today so far!
I'm not really getting the opportunity to do much pre-race trading as I'm testing my greyhound system on the horses, and I'm currently trying this on every race that I can lay my hands on, from RSA to USA. I'll even try it on the Oz racing when I get a chance.

11/09 - won £12.82 on the horses and won £3.81 on the dogs = +£16.63. Total = +£196.81

Started OK today but then encountered a Betfair fuck-up on settlement where they took my money instead of paying me out! Quite frustrating and had to spend a while on their live chat trying to get it sorted while I missed a few races. Still waiting for my refund ... these are the sort of things that fuck with your concentration, so now I have to be double careful and play cautiously until it's sorted and I can relax again. 

12/09 - won £20.25 on the horses and lost £82.11 on the dogs = -£59.86. Total = +£136.95

Guess what? No fucking refund from Betfair yesterday because the old grey haired cunt of a judge at Redcar made a balls-up of the result and called the wrong 4th. By the time the stupid old senile fucker had realised his mistake Betfair had already settled the market and instead of winning £60 I lost £230. If I ever bump into the stupid old git in the street he'll get a good hard kick in the bollox!

13/09 - lost £7.59 on the horses and won £89.60 on the dogs = +£82.01. Total = +£218.96

There was a possibility that the weather was going to be OK this weekend, which meant that I could have had a final bash on the beers down on the coast. But the forecast has changed and Betfair nicked my spending money on 11/09 so looks like I'm going to have to spend the next 6 months beavering away in front of the screen..
Stop press: fuck me if Betfair didn't only go and put my £290 back into my account!! Good old Betfair eh? Fucking lovely!! All we need now is a couple of sunny days this weekend and I'll be back on the piss down by the coast. 

14/09 - lost £27.64 on the horses and won £214.02 on the dogs = +£186.38. Total = +£405.34

Just having one of those days where I'm seriously lacking in concentration. Keep finding myself watching Gordon Ramsey on CH4 and wishing my kitchen was that big and nice!

15/09 - lost £2.48 on the horses and lost £31.70 on the dogs = -£34.18. Total = +£361.16

16/09 - won £3.93 on the horses and won £6.98 on the dogs = +£10.91. Total = +£372.07

17/09 - won £5.47 on the horses and lost £54.71 on the dogs = -£49.24. Total = +£322.83

18/09 - won £0.55 on the horses and lost £63.72 on the dogs = -£63.17. Total = +£259.66

19/09 - won £9.04 on the horses and won £114.80 on the dogs = +£123.84. Total = +£383.50

Every time that I lay something early in a race I seem to do my dough. Maybe I'll have to have a closer look at some of my recent bets to see if this is true.

20/09 - won £1.19 on the horses and lost £27.30 on the dogs = -£26.11. Total = +£357.39

21/09 - lost £6.51 on the horses and lost £78.83 on the dogs = -£85.34. Total = +£272.05

22/09 - won £9.01 on the horses. Total = +£281.06

23/09 - won £5.02 on the horses and lost £4.24 on the dogs = +£0.78. Total = +£281.84

24/09 - lost £29.83 on the horses and won £32.77 on the dogs = +£2.94. Total = +£284.78

25/09 - won £0.41 on the horses and lost £2.60 on the dogs = -£2.19. Total = +£282.59

Just downloaded the 'Geeks Toy' and paid for a 3 month subscription. I've used it briefly before, but it'll probably take a few days to get the screen setup nicely.

26/09 - lost £27.46 on the horses and lost £0.79 on the dogs = -£28.25. Total = +£254.34

OK, I've been using the Geeks Toy to trade some pre-race horses and dogs (in between my usual IR punts) and this is what I've learnt:
  • you can't fire in 1 tick offset bets at random judged on BF graph price movements. It's quite obvious that any big price swings more than eradicate the small winnings of a few scalps. I think that I knew this beforehand but still had to try!
  • a technique that did work was to use the BF graphs to spot a drifter and fire in a lay bet at the head of the queue with 3 tick offset
  • trying to monitor and play on too many horses in each race makes my head explode!
  • entering bets a few ticks away from the action seems to work OK. It seems to be more effective when you let the action come to you instead of chasing prices?
  • in theory if something doesn't work then that should make it easier to find a technique that does work?
  • trying to do pre-race dogs, pre race horses and IR is impossible, so something will have to give
  • how do you avoid getting caught by a swing that goes against you?
  • my trading is haphazard at the moment ... I need to be more analytical
  • fuck me this pre-race game is impossible!!
  • no point trading the dogs ... just stick to my system
     
27/09 - lost £0.06 on the horses and won £356.44 on the dogs = +£356.38. Total = +£610.72

Well yesterday was an interesting day to say the least! I fired up the 'Geeks Toy' and was hammering in bets left, right and centre without really knowing what I was doing or having any clear plan. However during this frenzy I managed to compile a few notes (above) and these should help me to improve my game over the next few days. I also had a quick look at the 'Geeks Toy' forum to see if I could pick up any snippets of advice and stumbled across this post which is quite interesting.
There are 4 meetings during the day today so pre-race trading opportunities may be low as I'll be playing IR most of the time. However, my aim today is to be more focused, patient and analytical in order to string a few winning trades together - let's see how it goes! PS I'm currently on £6 a click.
 

  • I've changed the chart that I use from the Betfair graph to a streaming chart displaying the last traded price with a chart range of 240 seconds (4 minutes). This seems to give a more accurate representation of price movement over the standard Betfair chart.
  • I'm gradually becoming more and more convinced that I am now more efficient as a backer rather than a layer. I've mentioned this fact in previous posts, but I sometimes still have to remind myself during the race!
  • I'm wondering whether or not it's an advantage to know who are the main gambling stables? Stuart Williams landed a touch today so I'll put him on my list
  • I also need to understand the best  times to enter and exit the market with regards to proximity of the off time?
     
28/09 - won £1.04 on the horses and won £38.43 on the dogs = +£39.47. Total = +£650.19
  • started betting/trading a few dog races this morning and gave decided to stick with my system on the profitable tracks and trade on the others.
  • I need to find a way to access the bookmaker dog shows.
  • Pallasator - missed this opportunity as the favourite sweated badly and played up at the start. Price drifted from 3.0 to 3.8 in a flash!

29/09 - lost £1.08 on the horses. Total = +£649.11

30/09 - won £0.38 on the horses and won £11.50 on the dogs = +£11.88. Total = +£660.99

Had a few beers last night and now feel like a sack of shite! I'm trying to persevere and nick a few quid, but it's hard when you're nursing a hangover.













Saturday, 1 September 2012

September ... time to bet like a MAN!!


Well it's September already and we've already seen the best part of the year in terms of the number of UK races per month.

So, after an alcoholic fuelled Summer I've decided that it's time to knuckle down (well after one more visit to the coast) and start betting like a man.


Outside the 'Foresters' @ Deal


Time to Start Backing

Over the last few months I've gradually become more of a backer, so I've tweaked my Gruss buttons and will now be looking to get involved earlier in each race, especially once I get back into studying some race replay videos and getting to know the form a bit better. This will be crucial at tracks like Wolverhampton where the track mongrels have a distinct advantage as they have the absolute live pics, but it seems that many  don't get involved until they can see the whites of the leaders eyes.


Studying the Form

Having previously studied hundreds of hours of race replays I've realised that it can be time consuming, tiring and pretty boring. I started the year coming into the office at 09:00 'ish each morning, but eventually noticed that I was knackered and making mistakes, especially during the evening meetings. So my new strategy will be to concentrate on studying the running style of just the favourite in each AW (All Weather ... Kempton, Lingfield, Southwell and Wolverhampton) race by watching the race replays. This will mean that I can probably condense my AW study time into maybe 90 minutes per day. I should really be doing this form study in the evening, especially as we approach the months were the UK racing finishes by 17:00, however, I might decide to trade the USA racing in the evening, I'll have to think about this over a few beers this weekend. Additionally, I also need to get a basic grasp of the jump form, as I did get caught quite a few times earlier in the year laying horses that looked well beat only to find that they were dour stayers that rallied towards the finish, and sometimes even won the race when I had layed them for a place! So I need to complete my glossary of abbreviations that I use, i.e 'R' indicates that a horse generally runs on, 'F' indicates that a horse finds little or nothing in a finish, etc. This should help me making some of the basic mistakes that I made earlier in the year.


Betting Like a Man

I've found it hard to shake off my risk adverse style of betting, so once again I'll be trying to focus on becoming a bit more aggressive.


Leisure Time

I'm obviously not going to try and spend all of my time fucking about with horse racing. There are 2 leisure pursuits that I have in my life at the moment and that's weight training and playing the guitar. I train in the mornings, usually before I get into the office. Now that the beer drinking season is over (well for me anyway) I really need to get the training and diet back on track as I've put on a few kilos of lard over the last few weeks.
I think that I'll probably aim to get into the office about 2 hours before racing starts in order to get ready for the day. Might even bring my guitar in and have a little practice between studying the form (I'll post some videos on YouTube of my guitar practice and we'll see how I progress) ... any requests?







Tuesday, 12 June 2012

Sunny June, July & August


Well June is here already and the weather is still shite. I thought I'd cheer myself up by posting some happy drinking pics taken over the last couple of years or so. Here's how I'm doing :

01/06 - won £303.85 on the horses and lost £126.06 on the dogs = +£177.79. Total = +£177.79

02/06 - won £150.61. Total = +£328.40

03/06 - won £180.41. Total = +£508.81


Guinness outside 'The Thomas Kemp' @ Kemptown




04/06 - won £200.38. Total = +£709.19

05/06 - won £137.79. Total = +£846.98

06/06 - won £224.70 on the horses and won £154.59 on the dogs = +£379.29. Total = +£1226.27


Stella outside 'The Rock' @ Brighton' ... was fucking hot that day!





07/06 - won £136.68 on the horses and won £75.03 on the dogs = +£211.71. Total = +£1438.00

08/06 - won £1147.26 on the horses and won £146.28 on the dogs = +£1293.54. Total = +£2731.54

09/06 - lost £97.42 on the horses and won £29.63 on the dogs = -£67.79. Total = +£2661.75


San Miguel in the jacuzzi @ Gran Canaria




10/06 - won £146.03 on the horses and lost £15.61 on the dogs = +£130.42. Total = +£2792.17

11/06 - won £86.70 on the horses and lost £64.04 on the dogs = +£22.66. Total = +£2814.83

12/06 - lost £33.44 on the horses and lost £39.67 on the dogs = -£73.11. Total = +£2741.72


Hoegaarden (my fave tipple) outside 'The Barley Mow' @ Kemptown




13/06 - won £188.73 on the horses and won £117.31 on the dogs = +£306.04. Total = +£3047.76

14/06 - won £130.92 on the horses and won £68.13 on the dogs = +£199.05. Total = +£3246.81

15/06 - won £146.36 on the horses and won £35.07 on the dogs = +£181.43. Total = +£3428.24



Either an Estrella or Stella in 'The Belgian Cafe' @ Ramsgate




16/06 - won £99.42 on the horses and won £12.17 on the dogs = +£111.59. Total = +£3539.83

17/06 - won £00.21 on the horses and lost £4.94 on the dogs = -£4.73. Total = +£3510.83

I'm now finding it near impossible to spot a good lay bet, as my miserable performance today indicates. Over the last few weeks I have gradually become more of a backer and this seems to be a more effective strategy when there are loads of races on the flat. Think I'll have to change my custom columns on Gruss as most of them are lay buttons!

18/06 - won £188.90 on the horses and lost £80.20 on the dogs = +£108.70. Total = +£3619.53


Stella (again!) in 'The Dolphin' & Broadstairs




19/06 - won £124.93 on the horses and lost £27.35 on the dogs = +£97.58. Total = +£3717.11

20/06 - won £97.42 on the horses and lost £68.24 on the dogs = +£29.18. Total = +£3746.29

21/06 - won £248.93 on the horses and won £31.85 on the dogs = +£280.78. Total = +£4027.07



Ice cold Peroni outside of 'The Bohemian' (probably my favourite boozer) @ Deal



22/06 - lost £51.69 on the horses and lost £43.00 on the dogs = -£94.69. Total = +£3932.38

23/06 - lost £126.48 on the horses and won £185.61 on the dogs = +£59.13. Total = +£3991.51

24/06 - lost £92.76. Total = £3898.75


Fosters outside 'The King Ethebert Inn' @ Reculver (had just cycled 15 miles and it was FUCKING HOT!!)




25/05 - won £48.21 on the horses and won £69.79 on the dogs = +£118.00. Total = +£4016.75

26/06 - lost £49.25 on the horses and lost £91.85 on the dogs = -£141.10. Total = +£3875.65

27/06 - won £457.01 on the horses and won £176.14 on the dogs = £633.15. Total = +£4508.80 


Oranjeboom outside 'The Saracens Head' @ Deal



Think I'll have to continue this post into July as it gives me a good reason to get some more beer drinking pics!


28/06 - won £95.16 on the horses and lost £45.74 on the dogs = +£49.42. Total = +£4558.22

29/06 - won £217.16 on the horses and won £22.70 on the dogs = +£239.86. Total = +£4798.08 

30/06 - won £181.29 on the horses and won £46.44 on the dogs = +£227.73. Total = +£5025.81


San Miguel outside 'The Master Mariner' @ Brighton marina



With July now upon us I'm trying to decide whether or not to up my stakes and/or aggressiveness? It's pretty obvious that I'm not going to hit the £200k mark for this year, so now I'm not too sure on how to play the second half of the year? One thought is to play steadily over the next few months in order to build a bigger bank for another assault next year maybe?

The weather has been so shite that I haven't even been down to the coast in 2012, but I'm hoping that we get a few nicer days towards the end of July so that I can get down there and smash into the beers. I'll have to partake in a few 'warm-up' beer sessions locally before I go though as I've recently shaved off over 8kg of beer belly by regular training, diet and abstinence from alcohol. But until then it's nose to the grindstone in order to eek out a few more shillings.


01/07 - won £134.31. Total = +£5160.12 

02/07 - won £3.01 on the horses and lost £27.35 on the dogs = -£24.34. Total = +£5135.78

03/07 - won £153.94 on the horses and lost £133.25 on the dogs = +£20.69. Total = +£5156.47


Coors in 'The Orleans' @ Las Vegas



04/07 - won £199.56 on the horses and won £229.66 on the dogs = +£429.22. Total = +£5585.69

05/07 - won £246.63 on the horses and won £21.54 on the dogs = +£268.17. Total = +£5853.86

06/07 - won £26.15 on the horses and lost £28.38 on the dogs = -£2.23. Total = +£5851.63


Mahou outside a bar @ Gran Canaria



07/07 - won £77.54. Total = +£5928.17

08/07 - won £163.76. Total = +£6091.93

09/07 - won £22.63 on the horses and lost £95.50 on the dogs = -£72.87. Total = +£6019.06


Carling outside 'The Dolphin' @ Littlehampton



Double BOLLOX!!

 I've been waiting patiently all year for the Summer to come along, and now that it's arrived the weather is PANTS!! I was planning on driving to the coast on a glorious hot Summer's day (via the usual 6 a.m stop at McDonalds for the obligatory 2 double sausage and egg McMuffins and a cuppa), cruising down the A2 while munching on my Muffins with a bit of Oasis/Pink Floyd full whack on the car stereo, slipping the Oakleys on and then cycling alongside the shimmering sea, stopping at pubs along the way to get pissed and getting the local women to apply copious amounts of suntan cream to my rippling muscular frame (pictures to follow). However, the poxxy shite weather has fucked it all, and we're still getting meetings rained off .. in JULY!!

So to summarise: I'm not wining my fortune, I'm not getting pissed, I can't remember the last time I got laid, my body is still chalky white and I keep having wet dreams about Ronald McDonald.

On a good note, I have managed to slim down to a sinewy 89.1kg, so with any luck once I reach 86 kg and the sun shines for a couple of days I'll be like a ripped Adonis (once again pictures to follow!).


10/07 - won £0.77 on the horses and won £30.34 on the dogs = +£31.11. Total = +£6050.17

11/07 - won £456.33 on the horses and won £90.80 on the dogs = +£547.13. Total = +£6597.30

12/07 - won £265.19 on the horses and lost £44.56 on the dogs = +£220.63. Total = +£6817.93


Fosters outside a pub @ Mallorca



13/07 - won £28.74 on the horses and lost £79.51 on the dogs = -£50.77. Total = +£6767.16

14/07 - won £130.70. Total = +£6897.86

15/07 - won £47.34. Total = +£6814.50


San Miguel outside 'The Nelson' @ Littlehampton



16/07 - won £238.58 on the horses and won £37.42 on the dogs = +£276. Total = +£7090.50

17/07 - won £240.99 on the horses and lost £108.10 on the dogs = +£132.89. Total = +£7223.39

18/07 - won £23.93 on the horses and won £236.14 on the dogs = +£260.07. Total = +£7483.46


San Miguel polished off outside a restaurant @ Mallorca



19/07 - won £109.25. Total = +£7592.71

20/07 - won £194.27 on the horses and won £24.73 on the dogs = +£219.00. Total = +£7802.44

21/07 - won £135.27 on the horses and lost £10.71 on the dogs = +£124.56. Total = +£7927.00


Tropical outside a restaurant @ Gran Canaria



22/07 - won £26.29. Total = +£7953.29

23/07 - got pissed (see August below)

24/07 - got pissed again


Guinness in 'The Fiddlers Elbow' @ Brighton



25/07 - ... and again

26/07 - ... and got pissed again just for luck

27/07 - won £52.59 on the horses and won £12.02 on the dogs = +£64.61. Total = +£8017.90


Stella Artois in the beer garden of the 'Earle St Vincent' @ Ramsgate



28/07 - won £371.11 on the horses and lost £56.12 on the dogs = +£314.99. Total = +£8332.89

29/07 - won £125.59. Total = +£8458.48

30/07 - won £51.24 on the horses and won £26.24 on the dogs = +£77.48. Total = +£8535.96


Amstel on the riverbank of 'The Crispin Inn' @ Sandwich



31/07 - won £113.64 on the horses and lost £37.59 on the dogs = +£76.05. Total = +£8612.01



Blazing HOT August!

OK I feel like doing a pictography (if there is such a word) of my recent 4 days in Ramsgate. Here goes:

On a mission to drink their reserves of Hoegaarden on Monday 23/07 @ 09:25 outside the Belgian Cafe @ Ramsgate.



01/08 - won £265.46 on the horses and won £76.59 on the dogs = +£342.05. Total = +£8954.06

02/08 - won £224.68 on the horses and lost £80.65 on the dogs = +£144.03. Total = +£9098.08


Followed by a Stella in 'The Royal' @ Ramsgate




03/08 - planning to go back to the coast next week so might try and push it a bit today & tomorrow to see if I can nick a bit of extra spending money (and if I lose in the process then I'll just get extra pissed next week to drown my sorrows!) - won £181.60 on the horses and won £267.68 on the dogs = +£449.28. Total = +£9547.36

04/08 -  won £237.10 on the horses and lost £21.05 on the dogs = +£216.05. Total = +£9763.41 


Pint number 4 of the day was a refreshing Amstel outside 'The Mariners' @ Ramsgate



05/08 - lost £94.13 on the horses and won £0.66 on the dogs = -£93.47. Total = +£9669.94

06/08 - I've come to the conclusion that it's really hard to lay early on the flat unless you really know your horses. I've fallen for 2 already today (and nearly fell for a 3rd) that have looked to be struggling early on, only to sprout wings and fly late! So while the races are coming thick and fast I really do need to stick to being mainly a backer and chipping away, only laying bigger late on when I think something is beat - lost £299.79 on the horses and lost £133.78 on the dogs = -£433.57. Total = +£9236.37


The early session of Day 1 was completed by a Stella Artois in the 'Port & Anchor' @ Ramsgate


07/08 - has a real shite day yesterday, so it's a softly-softly approach today and hopefully I can play safe, nick a few quid and steady the boat before the alcohol onslaught that's about to ravage my internal organs! - won £122.95 on the horses and won £2.88 on the dogs = +£125.83. Total = +£9362.20 

08/08 - spent another day in Ramsgate, this time with the family, and actually managed to stay in 'The Belgian Cafe' until closing time (02:00!). Had a nice walk along the beach in the sea mist and finally hit the sack at just gone 03:00!


The evenings beerfest started with a Stella Artois outside the 'Queens Head' @ Ramsgate



09/08 - up at 07:00 for brekky at 08:00. Spent another day in some of Ramgate's finest drinking establishments and had another cracking day with the family.

10/08 - just back from Ramsgate and feeling a tad fragile, so the softly-softly approach again today and I'll be more than happy if I can just nick an easy £100 - won £93.63. Total = +£9455.83


Quickly followed by another Stella in the 'Red Lion' @ Ramsgate


11/08 - won £333.99. Total = +£9789.82

12/08 - won £14.13. Total = +£9803.95


Tuesday started with a stroll along the beach and into 'The Dolphin' @ Broadstairs where I sampled the medicinal properties of another excellent pint of Stella Artois



13/08 - looks like we might have a scorcher this coming weekend so might be able to get down to the coast again and do a bit of cycling as well as drinking! - won £180.47 on the horses and won £32.60 on the dogs = +£213.07. Total = +£10017.02

14/08 - won £59.87 on the horses and lost £14.52 on the dogs = +£45.35. Total = +£10062.37


Swiftly followed by a pint of Oranjeboom outside 'The Wrotham Arms' @ Broadstairs



15/08 - having a shite day already and it's only 16:00! Going to have to play steady and try and nick a few quid back before I go out and throw myself off the bridge. Actually I feel like a verbal outburst ... FUCK WANK BOLLOX SHITE WANK FUCK. That feels better ... - lost £58.41 on the horses and lost £17.15 on the dogs = -£75.56. Total = +£9986.81

16/08 - won £82.65. Total = +£10069.46


Then back to the 'Port & Anchor' @ Ramsgate for another Stella!



17/08 - fucked off to the coast again, cycled to Deal and a had a few pints relaxing by the beach

18/08 - cycled to Minnis Bay and chilled out with a few pints of the wife beater


Tuesday evening became the early hours of Wednesday morning with a few more Hoegaardens outside the 'Belgian Bar' @ Ramsgate ... taking my total consumption to well over the 20 pint mark!




19/08 - strolled around Ramsgate and drunk as much beer as possible

20/08 - drove back home and couldn't be arsed to play today


No hanging about for yet another Hoegaarden at 09:45 Wednesday morning outside the 'Belgian Bar @ Ramsgate 



21/08 - won £197.20 on the horses and won £31.14 on the dogs = +£228.34. Total = +£10297.80

22/08 - won £84.73 on the horses and won £26.50 on the dogs = +£111.23. Total = +£10409.30


Another Hoegaarden in the 'Belgian Bar' @ Ramsgate took the pint tally to 29




23/08 - won £60.26 on the horses and won £2.34 on the dogs = +£62.60. Total = +£10471.90

24/08 - won £258.80 on the horses and won £114.04 on the dogs = +£372.84. Total = +£10844.72


Smashing into another Stella Artois outside the 'Queens Head' @ Ramsgate



25/08 - way back in December I started reading 'The Daily Trading Coach'. It's a fantastic book that really takes a good look at the psychological turmoil we all face as sports traders. It gives great examples of how to coach yourself to become a much more efficient trader. Although I read many of the chapters I've found that I have reverted back to old ways in many areas of my trading. I realise now that I should have maintained my focus during March - May in order to really kick on during the Summer months. Instead I have gradually settled for winning average amounts with little risk. This is not what I set out to achieve, and looking back over the past few months I'm a bit pissed-off with myself. So, the plan is to re-group and re-focus on my goal, and once again plough through the above book and make more of an effort to implement any required changes to my trading. Once I get myself re-focused I'll blog my expectations for the remainder of 2012 - won £119.87 on the horses and won £7.33 on the dogs = +£127.20. Total = +£10971.92   

26/08 - won £38.37. Total = +£11010.29

Thursday morning outside the 'Belgian Cafe' @ Ramsgate again with yet another Hoegaarden





27/08 - won £21.39. Total = +£11031.68

28/08 - won £138.45 on the horses and won £22.84 on the dogs = +£161.29. Total = +£11192.97


Then off to the beer garden of 'Jacksons Wharf' @ Ramsgate for a rare pint of  Fosters



29/08 - it's just not happening today. Hopefully this is not a sign of things to come in the Autumn and Winter. I feel like punching the fuck out of the TV. Not a very mature approach , I know, but that's how I feel. Might have to try and smash it (the market that is, not the TV) in September just to relieve a bit of stress.
Just looked at the cards for Sunday and Monday and I'd rather sit at home with electrodes attached to my testicles, so guess what, I'm gonna fuck off to the coast again with the missus and get absolutely wankered ... good luck!

30/08 - won £61.76 on the horses and lost £69.48 on the dogs = -£7.72. Total = +£11185.25


Then back to the 'Port & Anchor' @ Ramsgate for yet another Stella



31/08 - won £192.21 on the horses and lost £13.57 on the dogs = +£178.64. Total = +£11363.89


Looking decidedly fucked (but feeling on top of the world) in the 'Queens Head' @ Ramsgate with another Stella Artois




All washed down with a final Hoegaarden outside 'The Belgian Bar' @ Ramsgate in the wee hours of Friday morning ... bringing the 4 day tally to at least 42 pints ... not big and not clever, but bloody good fun!!