Friday, 9 January 2015

Week 2 - Fuck Me Its Warming Up Nicely Already!


Talking about the weather as opposed to the racing! I actually had my garden door open this morning and ventured out into the jungle to do a cursory bit of sweeping!




Anyway I didn't really get stuck into either the pre-race malarkey (just too boring) or the race replays as I couldn't get my poxxy Sky box to record 415.


08/01

So boring today that I can't even remember what the fuck happened! Nicked a few quid by plodding along .... 



09/01

Fared a bit better today and the smallish wins soon built up to a moderate amount.



10/01

Saturday today and much like most of this week I haven't really been properly prepared or motivated. I'm just kind of going through the motions and in the back of my head I think that I'm just hanging on for the flat which is only a few weeks away.





So once again I nibbled away and made it into 3 figure territory but I'm much like the Hoegh Osaka, just floating along on life's ever changing current.

God it's only 16:41 and fuck do I fancy a beer ...


11/01

I kept on having problems with the BF live video today so that kind of dampened my enthusiasm and I ended up winning about £20 on the day.

A New Year's Eve Guinness in The Belgian Cafe @ Ramsgate





12/01

I stayed up way too late last night and felt knackered today! The wet weather is starting to take it's toll on the racing and we only had 2 ATR meetings today so it was always going to be slim pickings. Wolverhampton was strangely OK, which is a stark contrast to the evening meetings. I dropped my stakes and didn't therefore make the most of 1 or 2 opportunities. It can be frustrating on days like today as if you drop a bollock then you know that it's probably going to take a couple of days to claw back any losses.





Racing finished early and I decided to hit the sack for an early evening snooze. I was having a nice nap until some dozy cunt kept ringing my phone and over and fucking over again. It has a fucking answer phone ... so leave a fucking message you fucking dozy cunt and stop ringing my fucking phone 20 fucking times because I'm fucking knackered and now you've woke me up and I've got the raving fucking arsehole you fucking stupid cretin. STOP RINGING MY FUCKING PHONE YOU THICK PRICK!!


13/01

Today was ...





.... PANTS!


14/01

Week 2 = +£433.67. Another pretty mediocre week where a few meetings were cancelled. However that's to be expected at this time of the year and January to March are probably the hardest months to make any decent money judging by my efforts in previous years.





It would be nice if I could gradually increase my weekly profits over the next few weeks but I see that we are in for a cold snap so a lot depends on the amount of racing that we have up until Spring and the start of the flat season.






14 comments:

  1. Hello again Dave - hope it's still going well.

    Just wondered what you thought about something I've been noticing in my trading, something that is basically a total annoyance, but that's normal with trading, lol.

    I've seen a fair few of my trades (backs) shoot out in price with heavy lays coming against them, so as I'm mostly pre-trading I have to take a loss (or I'd risk way too much - not going there again, made that mistake before). However, hardly any time into the race the price collapses back in again, leaving me cursing!

    I'm wondering why so many pre market moves are completely not related to what happens once the race goes off?? I've always presumed they were linked in the past, but a fair few times seems no relation recently.

    Not sure if you've noticed this, or had any thoughts, but seems a common thing at some times.

    GL at the markets,
    Stu.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Stu.

    I can't say that I've ever noticed this Stu?

    As you probably know the IR market swings wildly at the start of the race as all of the IR players normally want to be with prominent/strong travelling horses. However, the during the very early stages of the race the market can be very fickle with traders either looking to take positions or scrambling to get out of bad positions early for a minimal loss. So to a ceratin extent the pre-race market doesn't always flow nicely into the IR market. Having said this it's still strange that you are noticing this on a regular basis?

    Out of interest do you usually back in a certain price range pre-race, let's say 3.0 - 6.0, or do you back in all price ranges?

    I'd be interested to know if you continue to spot this trend?

    PS My skype id is canarydwarf50 as I chat to 1 or 2 colleagues real-time during the day and it would be good to spot this next time that it happens.

    Cheers - Dave.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thanks for the views Dave,

    Maybe I'm exaggerating a little to say that it's very common, and maybe these ones just stick in my head because they've given me a loss! But I sometimes see moves that seem to have little relation to the inplay - I haven't properly analysed it, but like you suggest I probably should! The other aspect of this is pre moves that bear little or no relation to the actual market result (plunges on horses that run like dogs, and massive drifts that eventually win or run very well). That also does my head in, when I've traded poorly (ie it drifts) only to see the thing win....grrrr, my pet hate that one.

    I'll give this issue a little more study and hope to let you know if I find anything.

    Cheers, Stu.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Dave, Stu... I have noticed this too, that a lot of the serious money does not go on fancied horses until the race is off now, plunge money will hit a fancied horse after the off and this can be in no relation to in play. These horses generally win / run well and can be very useful as an in running trader. I am sure that Dave will agree that we often see horses that are drifting for no logical reason (the reverse of the above) and they will not win 99 times out of 100. When I see this, I would always bail out, as it is again informed money that know the horse is not, how shall we say, trying to hard!!! I see it rgeularly and have lost big money in teh past backing horses that should be 4-1 in running but are actually 10-1 and drifting when 3 lengths clear mid race!

    Cheers
    Steve

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi guys.

      Yes I definitely see big moves at the start of the race for no apparent reason? The only thing I can think of is that somehow those 'in the know' think that are more likely to get under the radar of 'suspicious betting patterns' if they fire in their bets after the off as they may have the cushion of claiming 'well guv it was all above board as I didn't lay/back that thing for a lump until it went in-running'.

      It is VERY strange when you see lumps come in literally right after the off when basically nothing yet has happened in the race?

      And yep as Steve mentions if your selection is 3 lengths clear mid-race and apparently jumping like a stag but every fucker wants to lay it then bail out as usually someone knows something that you dont't! I've lost count of the number of times that these things literally fall in a hole and go from cruising to crawling in a matter of strides. However, when one of these does actually hold on to win I'm like shouting at the screen 'I hope the cheating fucking layers did their bollox' lol!

      Cheers - Dave.

      Delete
  5. Agree Steve - need to know when it just isn't going to go your way. But it can be very frustrating when you trade pre, see it go from your back of 5.0 all the way out to 8.8, you lay off for a nasty red all round, then it runs a lovely race and wins by 2 lengths. At times like those you wish you'd just been a backer rather than a trader. But I suppose we have to remember all the losses that a punter suffers too.

    Cheers, Stu.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Stu.

      I've mentioned recently that you can get some tremendous value sometimes if you have a strong opinion and you're willing to go against the crowd. This often happens when something is lining up at the start and looks like it is going to get an easy lead. The price usually crashes as the back-to-lay boys smash the price down. However, sometimes some other fucker sneaks up and makes the running and all of the pre-race backers want to bail out ASAP and the price can literally fly out. Now if you're in the opinion that this beast doesn't need to lead to win then quite often you can get double the price after maybe one jump as the pre-race backers are putting up silly prices as they're looking to save some of their stake. In this case it's not the guys 'in the know' who are forcing the price it's the pre-race traders who got it wrong and want to bail out even if it means taking a relatively high red. I see this happen quite often.

      Ta - Dave.

      Delete
    2. Yep, definitely some great chances at times if you stick to your view, but it's double-edged like you suggest. Guess if this game was easy everyone would be doing it, lol

      Hope you guys did/do well! Stu.

      Delete
  6. Hi Again Dave,

    Just wanted to drop you a note about that issue I mentioned above - 3.10 Lingfield, I've just been mullered by backing a winning horse.

    Traded quite heavily into Glastonbury pre race, and the damn thing drifted like a barge from about 12.5 out to 22.0-23.00 pre race, bit the bullet and redded out.

    It's just gone and won the flamin race fairly cosily. I'm not trading in running for these at the moment, so no gain back again sadly. But these ones leave me really scratching my head (not to mention hitting it against the wall!)

    Would be interested if you had any view on that one as an example.

    Cheers,
    (grumpy) Stu.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Stu.

      I didn't catch much of the pre-race activity in that one so didn't notice that big drift. Yep that doesn't happen very often but I think that it happens even less often when you get that type of drift early IR. Unfortunately, as you know, you just have to take that red as usually if you then go IR things just get much worse!

      Dave.

      Delete
  7. You're right, of course - leaving the whole thing in running is of course a long term recipe for disaster.
    But I still find myself wondering why the hell the layers were so determined to push out it's price, when it was obviously a good horse and was going to run well.
    Tricky question, but I tell myself in the long run redding out is always best.

    Stu.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hi Dave.
    Are you watching Inplay racing on RacingUK channel? Betfair Live video fast sometimes but its in very low definition, is RacingUk pictures faster?

    Cheers,
    Igor.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hiya Igor.

      Yep I use RUK instead of BF live pics as I can then watch it full screen and in better definition. I'm not too sure if there is a difference in speed but I don't think so?

      Cheers - Dave.

      Delete
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