Sunday, 4 January 2015

Week 1 - Pre-Race Trading Again?


I've recently found time to have a small dabble on the pre-race markets on those days were we maybe only have 3 meetings. I have only been playing for £5 a click (in order to watch the BF live video) but over the last few weeks I've had that feeling that I have a slightly better understanding behind some of the market moves.

Now I have tried this pre-race malarkey on a few occasions previously and have seen quite a bit of material from Jack, Caan and mugsblog, but like anything else in life it takes a lot of time, patience and effort to even approach a stage where you can consistently make cash. I have always found that dabbling in the pre-race markets is OK in the winter months when there can be long enough gaps between races, but in the summer it's impossible to do both pre-race and in-running as there is just not enough time, and to be honest it's much better just concentrating on one or another.

One of the reasons why I remain intrigued by the pre-race market is that I'd much rather trade on Betdaq and pay 5% commission instead of donating 50% of my winnings each week to Betfair. Currently the IR market on Betdaq in non-existant but the pre-race market looks like a viable alternative maybe?

So I'm thinking that I might fire-up Camtasia and see if I can capture some of my pre-race efforts over the next few weeks and we'll see how I go?



03/01

I had one of those days today (Saturday) where I seemed to be taking small steps forward up the ladder only to find myself land on a snake and end up back at the bottom. I persevered and then managed to string a few half decent trades together and I think that I just made it into 3 figure territory.



04/01

A pretty miserable and cold Sunday with only 3 ATR meeetings. I spent most the the afternoon nicking a few quid and then giving it back before ending the day ever so slightly in the green zone.



05/01

Another day of pants weather and racing! Building any enthusiasm for days like today is hard and it's just a case of nicking a few quid here and there in order to pay the bills.

The lack of liquidiy and mass panic amongst the traders almost caught me out in one race where the market veered wildly in the wrong direction (well wrong for me) and I was staring an £80 loss in the face when in my opinion the odds should barely have changed. The whole world seemed to be bailing out of their early position and I had no option other than to sit tight and wait for normality to kick-in whereupon the price moved back in my favour long enough for me to bail out without being kicked in the bollox.






This happens quite often, traders scrambling for the exit early doors and throwing in any price you like just to salvage something from their seemingly 'doomed' trade. The strange thing is that anyone who knows their form must be filling their boots when this happens as quite often a price will move violently purely on the back of this panic 'selling' and in hindsight some of the prices being offered are ludicrously good value.



06/01

I dragged my ass out of bed this morning and hit the gym, sauna and then Asda. The remainder of the day was spent trying once again to nick a few quid on an uninspiring day of racing.



07/01

Week 1 = +£157.63. So that was my first week back this year and trading wise it was pretty shite!





Strangely enough this co-incided with an email from a trading friend who said that he had just had a relatively nice week and it felt easy .... lucky bastard!!






12 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. I'm trying M .... I'm trying!

      Dave.

      Delete
  2. Hi Dave - Thanks for posting the blog, good read.

    I'm currently learning the ropes on the exchanges at present, having been an old fashioned fixed odds, pre-race backer on horse racing for donkeys years, and want to try my hand at betting at running as I'm a pretty decent judge.

    Just wondered when you made the trade on the horse you mentioned that shot to the front and saddle slipped (Jan 8), whether that was purely a 'win bet', or do you back it then lay it at a shorter price. If the latter, then do you 'green up' as they say, to win regardless of the result, or do you need the horse to actually win for a profit.

    I've been keeping results of backing horses in-running at prices I consider will shorten and have a high strike-rate (aim for 0.50, so I'd back at say 2.5, and then lay back at 2.0 for the same stake), but pretty clueless as to how to trade/make money, other than I have a free bet and need the horse to win for a profit.

    Having watched racing for 25 years, I've got a good reading as to what's happening, pace of race, horse's stride shortening, jockey's hands tight etc, things other viewers/traders may not, making it easy to tell when a horse's price will shorten, just need to profit from it in-running now - not clued up as to the best way!

    Any advice appreciated - cheers.

    Racing Dave

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Dave.

    Yep if I back something early then I'm always looking to trade it for some sort of green. If the market moves in my direction then I'll almost immediately phase out some of my initial bet and thus extend my green zone. Then depending on whether or not I fancy it's chances I'll put in some manual lays at much lower prices in the anticipation that the price may move further in my favour. Occasionally I will bail out using the green button but yes sometimes I do end up with a lopsided book maybe in favour of anything that I fancy and sometimes I'll pass on a nice green if I think that I can get even more. This is obviously frustrating if let's say you could take £100 green and then you bail out for £50, but then sometimes you might be right to hold on and try and get let's say £200+ if you're a bit more patient and the market moves even further in your favour. If the market moves against me early then I pretty much bail out ASAP and take the red on the chin.

    I tend not to attempt to gain 'x' amount of ticks. Once I have made my entry bet then my exit bets are based purely on how I think the price will move alongside how the market is actually moving and trying to exploit gaps in the market.

    I hope that this makes sense and I'll do a vid maybe tomorow where I'll try and clarify some of these points.

    All the best - Dave.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Dave - thanks for taking the time to reply.

    I half understand what you're saying, and am assuming that you use some kind of software instead of placing the trades on Betfair? I have a strong racing knowledge, but a bit of a Terry Fuckwitt when it comes to trading etc.

    A video would be helpful, though ideally I'd like to ask some more questions, just didn't want to clog up your blog or get on your tits! Is there a way I could email you?

    At this stage I'm trying to find out if I can make a profit simply via back to lay trades at 5 ticks.

    On Friday 9 Jan, I made 8 in-running trades on Betfair, on horses I felt strongly would contract in the next 10-30secs, and got 7 out of 8 correct - ie, I backed at 2.5 and layed off at 2.0 - both to the same stake so I had free bet; for the record, two went on to win.

    If I can achieve a high strike rate at this kind of trade, is it good enough to profit from?

    I've read online about how to green up, but want to know what happens when the shit hits the fan and the trade/market goes against me, and do the opposite of greening up by getting out with minimal loss, rather than losing the entire stake - obviously this can't be done when a horse suddenly falls. I'm guessing this is done by a stop loss via software?

    Looking at what I did yesterday, if I greened up and made say £2 per race (to £10 stakes), but then lost £10 on the one that went wrong, does that mean I could've made a total of £4 (7 x £2, and then a loss of 1 x £10).

    Again, any advice appreciated, if you'd like to exchange emails, then great.

    Cheers - Racing Dave

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Dave.

      My email address is the_stow@hotmail.com.

      Cheers - Dave.

      Delete
    2. Hi Dave.

      Yep having a one click software is a must these days. I use The Geeks Toy for my trading in the win market and Gruss for placing my late bets in the place market.

      Having a good methodology/system/strike rate is the key to this game so it sounds as if you are on the right tracks.

      The key factors of any trade are:

      *having a good understanding of each horses preferred running style
      the expected liquidity in any race so that you can tailor your stakes accordingly
      *being able to judge how fast the market is going to move based upon distance/type of race
      *bailing out as quickly as possible if it seeems that the market is going against you or looks strong in the opposite direction
      *extending your green zone by phasing out of positions that move in your favour
      *holding onto good positions for as long as possible when the market moves in your favour

      So yep if the shit hits the fan then I hit the lowest red figure that I can take at that time. Sometimes you're able to minimise losses but sometimes the market can move so violently and if liquidity is low then you can get shafted! I do this manually rather than use a stop loss.

      I hope that this makes sense and feel free to let me know if you have any more questions.

      Cheers - Dave.

      Delete
  5. Hi Dave - thanks again for the reply.

    Having read up a fair bit over the last few days, I have bit more understanding of what I needed to know regarding BIR.

    I'm looking into trialing the Geeks Toy at the weekend, and hoping it does what I want. There's just one area I need some advice on, which involves the greening up and redding up.

    I saw on another website the way to manually work out how to green up (for those of us without software) - can you confirm if I'm doing it right?

    Say I make an entry back bet of £10 at 3.0. I then make a lay bet for the same amount at 2.5. This should then give me a profit of £5 to play with. I then choose to green up, so divide £5 by the last lay price of 2.5, which gives my profit of £2.

    If that's correct, then great. But, does it work the same for limiting losses. For instance the market goes against me after making the 3.0 bet, and is now 5.0 - does that mean I can then red up for a loss of £4 (£20 divided by 5.0).

    Also, can all this be done (as I'm hoping) via Geeks Toy, with one click preset commands.

    Thanks,
    Racing Dave

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi Dave.

    If you take a look on YouTube there are several vids of guys using the Geeks Toy ladder and most of them show how to use the green or red option. This saves having to do the mental arithmetic during the race!

    In fact here's one I made earlier ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWCzIUswj2Q

    Cheers - Dave.

    ReplyDelete
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