Thursday, 3 July 2014

Fuck me it's warming up a bit!



Yep Summer has finally arrived and it's fucking lovely!






It's smashing into the 70's but not quite quite the 120+ degrees that it reaches in Death Valley ... fuck me now that is Scorchio!!

I was sorely tempted to hit the coast again this week as the sun was out and the temperatures were around the 22-23 mark, so ideal for cycling and re-hydrating with copious mounts of chilled lager. However I decided to stay at home and try and win some cash and maybe wait for mid-July.

Now my garden has always resembled a dumping ground, so I decided to hire some Romanian labour to clear it all down. The advantage of living in Newham is that you can find 30 or 40 guys hanging around outside the local Wickes every morning looking for work. So I popped down there, did a bit of bartering and paid 3 guys £90, in total, to clear my garden. Now these boys didn't mess around as Derek Thomson would say and had the job done by 13:00. I threw in few cans of Fanta, Fosters and something to eat but had to draw the line when one of the guys offerd me £200 for my car as he needed somewhere to sleep at night!



01/07

+£102.71. Monday today and I didn't seem to be going anywhere fast. I kept checking the weather forecast and really fancied going to the coast for Wed-Fri but realised that it would probably be better to stay at home and actually win some money before I spunked more on beer. I nibbled away and somehow managed to get up to 3 figure territory, so it wasn't too bad.




  
02/07

+£153.36. I spent the morning fucking about in the garden and going back and forward to the local tip. I had my positive and happy head on to greet the new month and I was bubbling with positivity and enthusiasm .... that's until I bumped into the jobsworth prick at the tip. I only had last years council tax bill and the guy wouldn't let me in without this years copy ... what a jobsworth dustman prickhead! So I had to come all the way home again with an overheating car full of shite and then rummage around in mountains of paperwork while the Romanians were plowing through my garden like a human combine harvester. That is what happens when you give a fucking dustman control of a barrier ... he thinks he's someone important! For a brief second I wanted to smash the fuck out of the silly little prick .. but then my positivity and calmness surged through my body and I decided that it wasn't worth the while.

I was fucking knackered by the time racing started and nothing much was happening early doors. My horse notes then came to the rescue as I had a good marker for Hot Spice at Catterick and he duly bolted up and added some sheckles to the coffers.





PS If anyone reading this works for Shanks East London I'd just like to say thanks for your help you lazy bunch of thick cunts.



03/07

+£345.52. I was up at the crack this morning as it was fucking beautiful. In between the tedious task of updating my horse notes I continued cleaning my garden, drank tea and sat in the sun.

I won almost £100 in the second race of the day and never looked back. I traded well but still missed one or 2 cracking opportunities by a gnats cock. I'll up the stakes tomorrow as there's no reason why I shouldn't be hitting this kind of figure every day during the summer months when there is plenty of racing.




The time spent keeping my horse notes up to date and watching the replays really paid dividends today and gives me a bit of enthusiasm. I've still got quite a few recordings to watch but hopefully I'll crack on tomorrow and hopefully highlight a few more potential good trades.



04/07

+£207.87. My good form continued today and once again the information compiled in my horse notes really helped.




I've recently noticed three areas in which my trading has improved. These are:

  1. Having more information to hand with regards to the common running styles of each selection, i'e. my horse notes.
     
  2. Refraining from chasing a price if my first attempts fail to get matched. It's SO easy to try and hit a price, miss it, chase it and then find that you get matched at several points above or below (depending on whether you are laying or backing) the original price. At this point the value has usually disappeared and you can find yourself in a deep hole.
     
  3. I'm finding that I'm bailing out much more quickly when I spot that the market is not reacting how I envisaged. For example you may lay something early and you're quite happy that it will drift, but it doesn't. Sometimes it's easy to hang on a bit too long and then find that the drift isn't going to happen and once again you're in deep hole. It's a fine line as there is that point in a race where your selection is either going to get smashed into in a  blink of an eye or drift like a barge equally quickly. If you are VERY confident that you have things right then at this point you can go well into the green very quickly, but the opposite is also true.




05/07

+£69.53. Updating these horse notes is a right fucking pain in the arse! I've also lost count of the number of times that I'm updating my notes (all in uppercase) and then switch to something like my blog, type a thousand words without looking at the screen and then look up and it's all in uppercase ... AGGGGHHHH!!

Anyway it's currently 10:06 on a Saturday morning and I've almost updated every race and blimey there's a shitload of racing and horses running today. On a day like today I always think that it should be easy to nick £5 - £10 per race and that would produce a tidy amount at the end of the day ... but as we all know it's not that easy!

I'm continually looking at various weather forecasts as I'm desperate to hit the coast again for some more cycling, drinking, eating and general relaxation. I've even though about the possibility of cycling from Brighton along the coast to Ramsgate. It's a fucking long journey though and with a few beers thrown in along the way I'm not so sure that I could make it? I suppose that if I split it into a two day journey then 50 miles per day should be achievable? So perhaps a day in Brighton and a few beers with green fingered Steve followed by an evening cycle along the coast to maybe Lydd at around 60 miles and then onto Ramsgate the following day at around 55 miles?





The weather for early next week doesn't look too handy but it's supposed to be picking-up from Friday so I need to get my thinking cap on and decide how I'm going to combine my trading, drinking, eating and cycling.

I missed out on three blinding days this week where the temperature was in the twenties, but as mentioned previously it's always a toss-up between working and holidaying. In hindsight I obviously made the right choice as I've had a few good days. So instead of spunking my cash on beer I've been able to add a few quid to the bank. The difference between staying and going probably meant that I'm sitting on an extra £1000 in my bank as it probably costs about £100 a day for me to go away when you factor in petrol, B&B costs, munch and Hoegaarden @ £5.20 per pint. It's still a bit of a shock when I pick up the mornings tab at The Belgian Cafe and it's £30+ and that's without breakfast or lunch! So hopefully I can continue in this form and add a few more quid before my next excursion(s).


So it's now 10:35 and I want to be a greedy fucker today and win even more and get to that stage where I'm taking £500+ per day.
 

...17:24 and today has been a bit of a struggle. I'm hoping that things improve this evening!

... well things did gradually improve and I clawed back my defecit and ended the day in front, which looked unlikely after my £120+ loss in one of the early races. Once again the daytime and evening meetings seemed like chalk and cheese. During the day it was like trying to run in quicksand and I felt as though I was just an observer, but then gradually the markets seemed to change.

I was SO close to getting a huge result in one of the early evening races. I spotted a great opportunity and even called my son over to 'watch a professional in action' (I was giving it a bit of large!) and at the off my £120 entry bet was only partly taken (I was 1 tick away from getting it fully matched) and literally 5 seconds later the price had moved about 50 ticks in my favour ... it really was a very close one!




Anyway, it's a day off on Sunday. It would have been my brother's 50th birthday on July the fourth so I'm off to the cemetery and then I'm going to see a few family members that I haven't seen for quite a while. Paul was the complete opposite of me in terms of gambling as he was quite fearless. We would often go to Hackney dog track back in the day and he would either go skint or come out with a few hundred quid in his pocket! I do miss those days of giving it the 'oi oi oi ... keep pulling' as your dog stretched into an unassailable lead. God knows what damage he would have done on Betfair!


07/07

+£99.24. I fell back into the old trap of fucking about again today! I stayed up quite late last night and that really threw my usual schedule out of the window today. I woke up late and then instead of cracking-on with my horse notes I chose instead to fuck about with my car ... again! I hate car maintenance, and instead of concentrating on winning some cash to pay someone else to do the dirty work I spent all morning looking for car oil, oil filters and transmission fluid. For some reason I became obsessed in my search and by the time that the first race was about to start I was nowhere near ready. I just felt like I couldn't be bothered with the racing and that I'd take any sort of profit. Fortunately my notes highlighted a cracking opportunity late on in Ireland which got me up to almost £100. In fact in hindsight I really should have gone in heavy on that one as I really fancied it as a cracking trade.




I'll be back on schedule and also back on my diet/training regime tomorrow so hopefully everything will fall back into place and I can start building on the good results from last week.




08/07

+£191.53. Caan recently mentioned on his blog that it's good to have a goal or target that you are working towards. When I started this blog my goal was to win enough cash to buy a house on the coast. Unfortunately circumstances changed and it's taken me a while to alter my style of trading. However, I now feel that I'm in a position to set an achievable target that gives me something to keep me motivated. Now my car is getting a tad old, struggles every year to get through the MOT emission test and has recently started overheating when under load (see above). So I'm going to need a new one. Now I fancy a Hilux but I'm probably looking at £10k at least ... so the target is to win £10k by the end of September! 




Today was a good start and it was nice steady trading without any major hiccups.






09/07

+£9.67. Wednesday is the day that Betfair rape your previous day's profits from your account and stick it in their pocket! It's also the day where I dropped a bollock in the 16:20 at Lingfield. I was obviously a bit pissed-off at the time and it does make you think 'what if I lose another £150 in the next race?', but I realised straight away that losses like this are part of the game. I kept calm and carried on and actually managed to finish just in front on the day, so I was quite happy.






10/07

+£130.45. I decided to have another curry day today so a few of my notes for today's runners were incomplete as I didn't go through the cards this morning. I didn't do too bad though and managed to scrape into three figure territory ... almost enough for a wheel and a tyre for my new car!




I've started to go in for multiple clicks on some races (I'm currently on £60 or £150 a click at the moment) and I feel that it's only a matter of time before I hit a stonking trade and get a few hundred English in one race, although there's also the chance of getting caught with my pants down and doing a few hundred quid. He who dares Rodney, he who dares!





The good old English weather has started to drag its heels and I'm still waiting for a solid few days of uninterrupted sunshine down on the coast.




Next week looks to be warm but also showery! It's the middle of July ... fuck off rain!!



11/07

+£322.38. I had one of those days today where everything seemed to fall into place and making cash was relatively easy. Unfortunately these sort of days don't come along that often! The good thing is that there is easily the potential to win anywhere between £500 - £1000 per day the way that I am playing at the moment as there is usually plenty available in the markets at the times that I normally enter and exit my positions. If I continue to gradually increase my stakes then there is no reason why I shouldn't be up to that sort of level in next to no time.



As mentioned previously now is the time to strike while we still have plenty of racing!!



12/07

+£107.47. I thought that I'd do something a bit different today and keep an update going through the day. This is how it all went ...


12:58: Well it's Saturday again so I really need to get my game plan sorted before the racing starts. My previous Saturday results have been +£70, +£202, +£122.90 and +£100.44 .... errrm in fact they haven't been too bad recently (I was quite surprised when I just took a quick look back at my results). Maybe it's just that I'm not making the most of Saturdays in terms of the amount of racing?

My normal approach doesn't seem to work as well and I think that this is due to the stronger in-running markets, due to it being so busy. In fact there are a zillion races today, most of them with quite large fields. So with 55 races between now and 21:15 you only need to average a few quid profit per race to make a handsome wage. Therefore I'll be playing a steady and patient game and only diving in when the opportunities arise.

13:03: Apparently the weather is set to be a mixture of heat and showers over the next few weeks so I may take the opportunity to get back down to the coast on Monday as it looks as though we might have 2 or 3 days of uninterrupted sunshine? I'm thinking that if I could win £300+ again today (cue motivational picture) then I'll definitely go ....




13:37 and I just won £8 in the first race and although it's not an earth shattering amount it really does boost the confidence when you start with a winning trade ...

13:58 a quick in and out on Demora in the 13:55 but missed the tasty 2.0+ for a place close home when in a clear fourth place! It looks as though I'm going to need a bionic eye today at Ascot as it seems like they have their last furlong camera on the fucking moon! It's like watching racing ants with microscopic jockeys on board ...

14:32 nicking a few pennies here and there but most importantly playing it cagey and patiently ...

15:27 agghh the Saturday struggle has begun and the patience has already started to wear thin ...

16:04 just took £60+ out of Gregorian in the place market as I spotted him coming through into third place late on in the 15:50 @ Newmarket ...

17:03 well I'm nowhere near the £300 mark as yet ... but there's still plenty of time left ...

17:57 right that is the afternoon racing done and dusted and I think that I'm about +£70. If memory serves me right I've fared a bit better in the evening racing on previous Saturdays so maybe I can nick a bit more out of this evenings two remaining cards, both on RUK so I might have a chance. The weather forecast currently looks like this ...


 


19:40 dare I say it but the evening racing seems a bit easier and I've crept up to about +£160. Now is the time to keep the concentration levels high and just aim to scrape a few more quid out of the remaining races ...

20:40 I fucking hate jockeys. They're either really intelligent crafty cheating fuckers or just plain thick as shite midgets or skinny lanky twats ...

21:18 well the wheels fell off late on in the evening and I just about kept myself in a three figure profit. There's always tomorrow I suppose ....







13/07

+£89.89. I was stumbling about on Facebook last week and came across the Hoegaarden entry and then the Hoegaarden website. They were running a competition to win a Hoegaarden glass so I had a crack and hey presto ...




I think that it is still running if you want to have a crack at winning a glass.




Strangely enough though I had already ordered six pint glasses and a beer runner from a UK site! I'll take a couple down to The Belgian Cafe next time I visit as some fucker(s) gradually nicked all of their Hoegaarden glasses last year and Andy hasn't bothered to replace them! 


OK it currently looks as though Mon-Wed are going to be fair days down on the coast, so as long as I do fairly OK today I'll probably go early in the morning, partake of a very early Hoegaarden outside The Belgian Cafe (and I'm talking 07:15 here!), hop on the 08:05 train to Whitstable and then cycle/drink (via The Rose Inn @ Herne Bay which opens at 09:00) my way back to Ramsgate (then via The Minnis @ Minnis Bay which opens at 10:00 ... oh yes indeedy!). In fact the usual scenario is that if I do OK today then I have some cash to spend, and if I have a nightmare then I'm so fucked off then I go and get pissed anyway!

It seems as though there is going to be a mix of sun and maybe a couple of showers on Tue-Wed so the bike can go back in the car and I'll just sit out under a canopy and get wrecked. I sometimes cycle in the other direction and go to Deal but unfortunately there is a distinct lack of pubs along the way, well especially ones that open at 09:00! Anyway, that's my sort of 3 day break!!

Today's cards don't look too inspiring with four ATR meetings but I have a sneaky suspicion that I might be able to nick a few quid at Sligo as the markets, especially on a Sunday, are as weak as what my piss will be come Tuesday afternoon, and that is usually where I can get in and out quite quickly.

13:30 I'll do another rolling update again today ... 

14:05 great start in the first race gets me £30+. So now it's slowly slowly and nick a few quid here and there if possible ...

14:45 overlapping races GRRRRRR!!!!! ...

15:13 chipping away but not helped by the race clashes which are effectively making today a wankbag of a Sunday. I haven't even seen an Irish race as yet ...

16:56 in the home straight on an unspectacular day. T-shirts in the wash, suncream at the ready so just a steady finish and maybe a few more beer tokens in the wallet ...


I was thinking about trading last night as I hit the sack (yep sad I know) and I realised that my analysis and implementation of my trades has gradually improved over the last few months, but funnily enough most of this improvement has been down to a few simple steps. I mentioned three key areas back on 04/07 and these are having more relevant information with regards to each horses usual running style, refraining from chasing a price and bailing out much more quickly.

Now as I was drifting off I realised that there are more key areas which need to be controlled and mastered. The main one is he ability to realise when to play the market instead of trading your own opinion. By this I mean that sometimes you will see an entry point but also notice that the price is NOT currently moving in your favour. In fact this just occurred in a hurdle race where the early leader drifted like a barge in-running despite leading over the first two hurdles and jumping nicely. Now sometimes it's just SO easy to think 'everyone else has got his wrong and the price will soon crash back down'. However, unless you are 100% confident that you really are right then it's always best just to sit on the fence and just watch what transpires. You'll find that in most cases the masses are correct and your initial opinion ws a wrong'un. There's nothing worse than entering the market against the flow and then just watching the flow continue in one direction and you wave goodbye to your money. Now this is not always the case, but unless you have a cast iron opinion then I find that it's best to sit on your hands.



   



20 comments:

  1. Dave, great work, your daily profits are a great improvement on last year. It may be a pain with your horse notes (I don't have the dedication and that is why I don't make your profits), but you soon will have enough saved for that house on the coast!!

    I can meet up as early as you like for a few pints mate, if you have to head off on the cycle later afternoon / evening.

    Garden is going mad, can give you a bag of veg when you come down here, you can munch on mange tout whilst you are cycling to Kent!!!!!!!!!!!

    Cheers
    Steve

    ReplyDelete
  2. so my dear u r with betfair not betdaq, betfair charging you premium charges,
    wishing you great time may horses and dogs bless u friend
    easwarn
    india

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Dave,

    Mate, re your horse notes / trading, how many runs does a horse need to have before you can ascertain its running style and you can then trade accordingly? There are a lot of maiden races at the moment where a horse may have had only one or two runs, so do you just leave those races alone? Just curious to know!

    Lovely day on the coast, off for a lie down in garden to sleep off last nights beer!

    Have a good day.

    Cheers
    Steve

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hiya Steve.

      Usually 2 or 3 minimum Steve, but I usually have the last 5 or 6 runs. I might have something like 'L**P*M' meaning it's lead 3 times, been prominent twice and midfield once in it's last 6 runs. Id I think that something can win next time out then maybe I'll have something like 'P**M**\7 W' meaning that I've watched it in a replay during July (07), it's been prominent or midfield and obviously stayed on strongly and I fancy it to win (W) next time out if it is in the mix.

      As for the maiden races, well I'll usually just concentrate on those that have already had a start or I'll be looking to lay short priced un-raced favourites early if they miss the break etc.

      Yep we'll sort that beer ...

      Cheers - Dave.

      Delete
    2. Hi Dave,

      Interesting stuff. I was just reading a few of your old blog posts and see that you used to subscribe to the Timeform in play cards and that you found them really useful (see below). Do you think they are still worthwhile, as surely it would save you many hours of updating your horse notes?

      Was in the Fiddlers Elbow most of yesterday, so hitting the hills tomorrow to get rid of that lovely Guinness that they serve in there!

      Cheers
      Steve

      finally got around to subscribing for the Timeform in-play cards and they've already saved me a bundle. Will be interesting to see how I change my plan of attack over the sticks now that I'm armed with a bit of information as to how these beasts normally run. I'm already experiencing the conflict of what the form is telling me against what my eyes are telling me .... should be an interesting day!

      this Timeform service is a real eye opener, especially as I know nothing about jumping form. To coin a phrase from one of our well known money making machines 'I feel like a dog with 2 cocks'.

      Delete
    3. Hiya Steve.

      Yep I tried the Timeform cards but for some reason I just prefer my own, even though they take ages to compile. The advantage with mine is that by adding a 'W' for 'good chance of winning next time' or 'F' for fades etc it allows me to know how long to hold on to my initial trade. I'm right on the edge of something big as I'm spotting so many future winners at good prices that it's unreal atm and yesterday I could quite easily have gone close to winning £1k.

      So just having a beer or 2 now and updating my notes for tomorrow. To be honest most of my recent good trades have been from notes that I've made from watching the replays. I'd like to think that all of this homework gives me a slight edge over other traders and gamblers and if I can get to that stage where I can take £300+ a day on a regular basis then that will somewhat numb the pain of living horse racing 24 hours per day!

      Cheers - Dave.

      Delete
  4. Hi Dave, Steve,
    I just wanted to gloat a bit - taking a few days off to visit Hastings and it's environs.
    Weather forecast looking good.
    See you next week!
    Cheers,
    Dean

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hiya Dean.

      How did it go mate? Hopefully you had plenty of beer and sun?

      Cheers - Dave.

      Delete
  5. Hi Deano, Dave

    No need to golat amigo, as I live on the Coast so get to chill by the sea most days. That being said, the beaches here are not exactly the miles of golden sand that I enjoyed when living in Sydney!!!!!!!!! Pebbles in your shoes anyone?

    Have fun both

    Cheers
    Steve

    ReplyDelete
  6. Fair play Dave, I really admire your dedication to the job in hand, especially during the Summer when it is so easy to get distracted !! It is definitely an edge for you mate and you are getting out what you are putting in, so long may it continue.

    Try to get down here before Xmas for a few pints, as may be moving on in the New Year!!

    Cheers
    Steve

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hey! I was looking for information on snap in dentures cost and found out you can get original dental implants (no knockoff) for $1,200 USD with the crown and the abutment included. No kidding. I'm planning my vacation in Cancun and get them set as soon as I can. I'll go back later in a few months for the rehabilitation. Wish me luck!

    ReplyDelete
  8. Did you know that you can create short links with BCVC and earn cash from every click on your short urls.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Searching for the Ultimate Dating Website? Create an account to find your perfect date.

    ReplyDelete
  10. New Diet Taps into Pioneering Plan to Help Dieters Lose 20 Pounds in Just 21 Days!

    ReplyDelete
  11. eToro is the best forex trading platform for rookie and pro traders.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Ever wanted to get free Google+ Circles?
    Did you know you can get them AUTOMATICALLY & ABSOLUTELY FOR FREE by using Like 4 Like?

    ReplyDelete
  13. If you need your ex-girlfriend or ex-boyfriend to come crawling back to you on their knees (even if they're dating somebody else now) you got to watch this video
    right away...

    (VIDEO) Win your ex back with TEXT messages?

    ReplyDelete
  14. QUANTUM BINARY SIGNALS

    Get professional trading signals delivered to your mobile phone daily.

    Follow our signals NOW and profit up to 270% a day.

    ReplyDelete
  15. BlueHost is one of the best hosting provider for any hosting plans you might require.

    ReplyDelete
  16. FIND OUT How You WILL Master Your Habits And Reprogram The Subconscious Mind To Get Any Result You Want In Your Personal Growing and Fulfillment!

    Introducing... Procrastinating Your Procrastination!

    ReplyDelete