Monday, 7 January 2013

Well that didn't quite go to plan ...


So where did it all go wrong?





Well looking back at January it didn't seem like a bad start at all. It seemed that most days I was winning maybe £100+ and ended up winning nearly £4k on the month. So not a bad start at all.




I had 1 or 2 interesting days in February, losing a record amount of £1035 on the 21st and winning £752 on the 24th. The snow and ice did little to help matters, and it was in fact during March that I predicted that in-running was set to become a lot harder as it seemed that we were getting further and further behind what was happening live. I suppose it may also have been due to the increasing number of track players snaffling all of the prices before we even had the chance to see what was happening?  So due to these factors I only managed to get just under £5k over the 2 months.

I think that I also drank loads of beer and ate many kebabs during February and March and therefore probably spunked most of my winnings instead of being a tight fisted fuck and putting it into the bank.




I didn't really spend much time on my blog in April or May and for the life of me I haven't got a fucking clue what I did during those few weeks .... probably drunk more beer and didn't bother to save any of the £7.5k that I won.

The weather in June was crap .... I remember that! Obviously the racing picks up during the Summer and I didn't do too bad, but still somehow managed to spend more than what I earned! I managed over £11k during these months and probably should have had a lot more but spent most of it on more beer and trips to the coast!




... and yes, it was 09:05 in the morning!



In September I decided to get involved in the pre-race trading game. I think that I was beginning to sense the end of the place market as the liquidity seemed at an all time low. Things must have been bad as I'd only won £1.5k halfway through the month and I didn't even remember to download my monthly P&L at the end of the month!

October saw the wheels come flying off in spectacular fashion.



Just about scraped over the £1.4 mark for the month and realised that now something was seriously wrong, so decided to abandon ship at the exchange and start playing from home using BF live pics and RUK.

Spent November and December trying to master the pre-race game and seeing exactly how much I could still get from the place market playing from home. The answer: not a fucking lot! In fact I only managed to get just over £1.4k.

So the question is: where the fuck do I go from here? The first thing that springs to mind is the local Jobcentre. However, all is not lost ..... well hopefully!



The Plan for 2013

The place market is pretty much fucked, especially over the jumps, I know that. So the only option is to dive head first into the win market with all the big boys. I think it's just a case of sorting a few strategies and getting used to the price movements and playing differently on Gruss.

I am also going to combine the IR trading with the pre-race trading. I thought that I was making progress during November, albeit for small stakes, only to encounter a wobble during December. I think that I'm back on the right track and we'll just have to see how I progress over the next few weeks. I think that I'm going to play safe during January while I'm learning the ropes and I'll be happy if I can get £1k by the end of the month. Once I get up to speed just using smaller stakes then I can gradually up my stakes back to somewhere near normal when I feel that I know what I'm doing.

I must admit that life has been somewhat stressful over the last few weeks and I have turned into a right miserable fucker. I know that there are much more important things in life than money but it's still hard to come to grips with the fact that things have changed so quickly and it's a lot harder to just sit down and win £100+ every day. My missus has borne the brunt of most of my frustration and we've indulged in 1 or 2 tasty arguments since I've started working from home. She also didn't take too kindly to me likening her to a sloth in one of my previous posts (I suppose that's not really going to help matters). However, she's a diamond and I love her to bits.




 
I still want to move to the coast, and I still believe that it's possible to win big amounts of cash, it's just that it's a bit harder these days, but hey, that's life!


09/01

Fuck it! I thought I'd put my ugly boat on YouTube. I've had 75 trades over the last 3 days and only had 2 losses so I'm feeling like a dog with 2 cocks. I felt suicidal in December so I'm gonna bounce back in January and tell the world just how fucking good I am at this game.




10/01

Had 32 trades today and only 2 losses, so I'm feeling quite happy. Will probably up the stakes slightly tomorrow and crack on! And here's more words of wisdom ....




11/01

Another day where the strike rate was good so really need to start getting a bit more aggressive on the staking. Saturday tomorrow so should be an ideal day to up the stakes and see how I progress.





... and yeah I was a bricklayer. Still get the urge every now and then to throw down a few bricks but my trowel is rusty and my expensive Stabila level got bent by someone hitting it with a mallet (cheers Mike!).


12/01

Well the fact that Betfair went tits up just before 15:00 didn't exactly help things! Traded OK and a bit more aggressively but made a basic error in one market where I expected a reversal just before the off but got involved way too late when there was no real time left for a bounce back. Really need to gradually up the stakes and see how things progress.





13/01

Today was the day when I felt like everything was starting to come together with regards to the pre-race trading.




Just felt as though I was spotting moves and in many cases played the markets correctly. Did spend a lot of time in the evening just watching recordings of previous markets and trying to gain an ever greater understanding of what the fuck is happening each time a market goes bonkers.



13 comments:

  1. hi Dave, how do you think Betfairs plans to introduce a 3 second delay to in running horse racing markets will affect trading?

    ReplyDelete
  2. By the way, I'm Rob who used to come to the exchange ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hiya Rob! How's it going at your end? Hope the poker is treating you well and that the BF events are not destroying your liver!

    Yeah I've heard some rumours. Can't really see what it will achieve to be quite honest. If it's going to be 3 seconds then if you've got a back bet in the queue for a horse and it falls you'll still have your cash hoovered by the track players? I'm trying to move to pre-race to avoid all of this bollox. Also be interesting to see if there are any changes to commission/premium charge rates? Cheers - Dave.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi ya Dave, all good my end mate. Running a lighting company now and don't get much time for poker or trading, except maybe a bit on a Saturday. sorry to see you've quit the exchange but its not entirely surprising as after spending 4 months there it became obvious that nobody was making any money and were just clinging on in the hope that something would change around to make the game more profitable, without any real plans for how they were going to achieve it. Shame really as they are all really nice people. If betfair do introduce a 3 second delay, I think that will be the end for the wharf exchange tbh.
    Anyway, glad to see you're making a go of it from home mate and i will keep checking in to see how you are fairing :-)

    ReplyDelete
  5. Blooming heck, you know them all!! Never got to the Rock but will do when we get down there again. Dave, what's your email and I will send you some spreadsheets tomorrow that I have been doing for the last few months on the horses. Good to share ideas and I am trying to reduce my stress levels from relying on in running, so have (hopefully) found something else. That and pre-race trading may be the way to go in 2013. Cheers, Steve

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi Steve

    Yeah the Rock has a small but lovely beer garden which is a suntrap, so excellent for a beer or 2 during the summer months. It was under new ownership when we last visited and the guys are really friendly and the Stella is lovely!

    My email is brickcrafts@hotmail.com. Would really appreciate those spreadsheets ... ta!

    On the form side for the jumps the guy who runs the exchange really knows his stuff inside out, especially analysing handicap chases. My daughters boyfriend went to the exchange for about a year or so, and in that time he received a lot of training on understanding and analyzing the jumps form. He's taken this on board and has produced his own notes on how to analyze these type of races and with any luck I'll be getting my hands on a copy some time soon!

    I'm more than willing to share ideas and strategies etc, no problem.

    Cheers - Dave.

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