Well, well, well. Ladbrokes have finally acquired Betdaq. The questions is, will this change P2P betting as we know it? There are plenty of differing opinions on the BF forum (as you would expect) and to be honest I haven't got a clue. The thought of high liquidity markets and a much lower commission rate does give me an instant hard-on (I'm easily pleased) but whether or not things will improve, or even get worse, is anybodys guess.
Does anyone out there have any opinions as to where this may lead?
As an additional point, the only fucking advert that I ever see for BF is for 'Betfair Casino', and there was me thinking that the PC was supposed to help fund the drive to get more users on the exchange, not the fucking BF Casino!
As for my progress, well I'm running in quicksand right now. It is true that the weather has decimated the racing over the last couple of weeks, and this had probably affected the markets. I'm still having a bash at the pre-race, with varying results, but my IR game seems to have picked-up (maybe because I've upped my stakes).
The short term weather forecast looks a bit better so maybe the racing and markets will return to normal? I have noticed that Lingfield AW has been unplayable this week so the track mongrels are probably out in force.
In my spare time I've been getting stuck into 'Trading in the Zone'. It does start to get a bit heavy and repetetive at around the halfway mark, and as it gets later in the evening it gets more and more tempting to ditch the book and watch silly videos on YouTube instead. The basic thrust of the book is to make the reader realise, and accept, that the way that the market moves (and I'm applying this to pre-race markets) is totally random. Then once you've discovered your edge, through market analysis, spottting trends etc, you can then confidently trade the market, with pre-defined exit points, and not be affected by short term results (as you accept the randomness of the market) as you know that your proven edge will make you a winner in the long run, much like a casino or a traditional bookmaker.
If anything this has had more of an affect on my IR trading, as I'm no longer doubting my initial observations and getting involved when I see the opportunity, and not worrying if I have a losing race or losing day, as I have a proven edge which has served me faultlessly over the last 5 years.
So keep an eye on the BF share price and get ready to man the lifeboats!
It's been pretty quiet with regards to progress in the pre-race markets. I did have a small play in the IR win market at Cheltenham on Saturday, albeit for tiny stakes, but managed to win a few pennies in the six races that I traded. I recorded my trading and Jack is going to post the videos on the TFF website.
We only have 2 AW meetings this afternoon so I'll be back in the place market trying to nick a few quid.
30/01
Feeling really depressed and fucked off today. Poxxed about trying to put 2 new batteries in my car this morning and as usual nothing goes to plan and spent 2 hours fucking about, getting greasy and fucked right off! Also checked my P&L for January last night and that fucked me off as well, so in a nutshell I'm well and truly fucked right off.
31/01
Had a right fucking miserable day yesterday. Fucked my car and fucked my P&L. Going to trade today and then go out and get wankered tonight. Then in February I'm going to smash the fuck out of the market.
My car antics above reminded Steve (showing his age) of a classic comedy moment from a few years back when we were all nippers.
Hi Dave,
ReplyDeleteWell well well, that is really interesting re Ladbrokes and Betdaq. I have been keen to use Betdaq, but each time that I had looked, especially in running, the liquidity was dreadful. I would have had trouble getting a tenner through IR, let alone £100+. Can you imagine have high liquidity, no PC and low commission rates. Marvellous!! However, knowing Ladbrokes, there will soon be a PC with Betdaq and anybody that dares to make a profit will be punished accordingly!! Most, sorry ALL, UK high street bookmakers now are just bean counters and gone are the days when they actually took a bet.
Glad that your IR is going ok from home, saves you a few quid from not going to the exchange shop. How are you finding it without the camaraderie of the fellow traders in the shop?
I agree re that book. It repeats itself ad infinitum later on. Just have the final 2 chapters to go, but that can wait until next week, as beer o'clock now!
Have a good weekend Dave and enjoy Cheltenham tomorrow (hopefully).
Cheers
Steve
Happy saturday folks, a decent looking horse on the Lingfield card is 3 Ice Runner in the 1.25. Currently 1 h before off 15.5-16, and this price should be taken IMO. front runner likely to get his ideal race set-up here, positive jockey booking for such a scenario. good luck. Christian
ReplyDeleteHi Dave, having looked at the AW card tonite from Kempton, a few notes of interest beforehand (and btw. just tell me to f.o. if this is annoying my comments... :-) 5.20. 1 Whitby jet is the value runner I feel.trades currently at 6.2-6.4 a price that should not last before the race is off. very solid last time and looks well in at the weights. In the 6.20, watch out for a move on 5 Gay Gallivnater, that would certainly be significant tonite. Trades currnetly 40's, and worth to have a nibble. If the supports comes from these connetions, the price will not look back. best of luck. Christian
ReplyDeleteHi Christian
DeleteKeep them coming mate! I'm always interested in how other traders operate. I haven't managed to get on any of the selections so far as I keep missing the posts!
Cheers - Dave.
Is this you Dave? :) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=78b67l_yxUc
ReplyDeleteI've got a really strong one tonight, and the price at the moment is absolutely ridicilous. Wolves 6.50: 8 Rylee Mooch. 36-40, i've gotten 38 and will continue to get on at 30's. This is one of those really strong opinions, this horse will not go off at this price. No way. dropped 3 lb since finishing behind some top class aw horses last term, has found a very nice race to open his season and is unexposed compared to many of these. This is a real strong one. Cracking value at 30's. Hope you see this comment mate. Best of luck. Christian
ReplyDeleteGood shout Christian! Spotted the move down to the 20 mark a few minutes before the off. Hope you got a few quid out of it? Cheers - Dave.
ReplyDeleteThanks, this was one of those bets that I traded the majority out of. I would think I was partly responsible for parts of the very late drift as I was filling up chunky orders at 22-24 that I got at 34,36 and 38 so that was a great result really. Perhaps I find one or two such opportunities a week, I usually do not trade out. That horse was not a 38-1 chance though. Cheers. Christian
ReplyDeleteShout from Dundalk in the 7.50. 7 Punches Pious. Thin volume so far, trading in the range of 30-36. Very weak race, distinctly winnable with exposed Favs. My shout did well enough after long lay-off last time, were som late support on the exchanges that time from 40's early on and this could very well happen again. Not maximum confidence though, but a decent value shout nonetheless. Best of luck. Christian
ReplyDeleteEver wanted to get free Instagram Followers?
ReplyDeleteDid you know that you can get these AUTOMATICALLY AND ABSOLUTELY FREE by registering on Add Me Fast?