January Analysis

Well, that's January done and dusted! ... well nearly.

One of the reasons for this blog is so that I can keep a track on my progress through 2012. So, how have I done this month, what have I achieved and where do I need more work?

I have to face the fact that on some days I will lose. Now my worst day this month was actually on my birthday! I lost £305.29 and felt a bit down in the dumps. I backed Tinshu to place at 2.06 (finished 4th and then came 2nd two weeks later in a higher grade race), layed Water Garden (probably not one of my best bets having seen the replay, finished 4th to scrape a place) and layed Al Freej on the AW without knowing anything about the horse. Now I has a fantastic evening and the loss became so insignificant that it was soon forgot.

From February onwards I really need to be putting at least £600 on the line every day. This doesn't mean that I should steam in and back or lay everything in sight, it just means that I need to realise that a £600 loss on any day is not going to effect my yearly profit. I need to realise that if I don't play in this sort of league then £200K will be out of reach. I need to be clicking with this in mind, and going in double strong where appropriate. I now have the added advantage in that my AW notes are coming together nicely and my subscription to Timeform is giving me an easy and quick way to identify which horses to be with and those to be against.

My preparation each day has vastly improved over what I was doing towards the end of last year. I have been getting into the office well before 09:00 on most days and I've used this time to study form using the Racing Post video replays. I've also been spending 20 minutes or so each morning in the steam room or sauna where I can relax and prepare myself mentally for the day ahead. This works really well and now I'll be visualising really moving my game up to another level. I'm excited just thinking about it!

I must admit that I'm still not perfectly relaxed when trading, although my concentration levels have improved. So once again I need to work on this and break away from my old cautious style of playing. Once I have achieved this then I'll really start to see the profits that I know I can achieve.

I am gradually changing my style from being almost exclusively a layer to being a backer as well. This is progressing at a slow pace, but once again I'll be looking to really get stuck-in to more backing in the coming weeks.

I've decided, for the time being, that I will put the football trading on the back burner. I feel that my time will be best spent studying form and working on ways to improve my confidence and aggressiveness. I'm also still in the process of compiling a list of the strengths and weaknesses of some of the traders that I know ... and there's one or 2 interesting facts that I discovered and will publish shortly.

And don't forget ... 'see it ... click it'.

Cheers - Dave.

Ramsgate

This is where I'll be moving to in 2013. It's a fantastic little harbour, especially when the weather is like it was on this morning. Had a bit of a hangover at the time but a stroll along the jetty followed by a full English did the trick and we were soon back on the Stella!

Best viewed on the YouTube link above where you can view it in 720p HD.

I think that it's a great little town and it's also pretty close to Deal where you can get this ...

Cheers - Dave.

Daily Journal

When it comes to trading and betting I find that I am still very risk adverse. I think that I've always been this way in all aspects of life. Nobody likes the feeling of getting something wrong, but some people handle this better than others. The easiest way of avoiding being wrong in this game is not to trade at all. You'll never be wrong but you'll make fuck all!

One of my biggest objectives is to trade in a less risk adverse manner and to do this consistently, even when losses occur. I think that I'm pretty good at dealing with losses already, and I don't beat myself up when I get a loss, unless I've made aright ball-up of things. However I'm still working on the 'see it ... click it' approach. Once I get that nailed then I'll be much more effective. To win big at this game you have to be prepared to take a few hits along the way. A bit like boxing I suppose. Think of great fighters like Muhammad Ali, Manny Pacquiao and Frank Bruno ... they were all great, but they all took a few shots along the way. They never gave up or cried when they got hit did they?

So I thought that I'd stick up daily journal covering my days between now and the end of January. I'll be recording how I get on both money wise and emotionally, and if I take a kick in the bollox along the way then I'll let you know about it. It will be interesting to see how many times my risk adverse mentality kicks-in and how I deal with it, and if it does I'll be able to see at the end of January how much this costs me. We'll see how it goes, and as long as I can get a good week then I'll be looking to increase my stakes and aggressiveness at the end of the month, maybe even before.

PS I'm also going to lose some weight this week! So here we go:


Monday 23rd January 2012 - 96.4kg

• had a good session in the gym and now I'm going to have a cuppa, study some AW form and trade the early greyhounds.
   
• we only have 2 meetings today, Wetherby and Wolverhampton, so it'll be a case of taking whatever comes along. So I'm not going to shout and scream if I can only nick £50, although I might stay late and trade the evening greyhounds as well.
   
• nicked a few quid early doors on the horses and greyhounds but just lost £200 laying 'Mission Complete' in the 14:15 at Wetherby. Didn't seem like a bad bet at the time and could have taken a green but felt comfortable with the position. That jockey Mr A Berry gets me every time!
   
• just had a quick look at tomorrows cards and 'Opus Maximus' and 'Veroon' (owes me money from it's last run!) could be interesting runners in the 16:30 at Kempton as 'Tewin Wood' should take them along at a tasty pace. I'll be taking a closer look at this race this evening in between the greyhound racing. I think I'll be looking to be a backer at Leicester as the track players will be there in their millions and I've found it pretty much impossible to lay anything there recently.
   
• well it's 21:50 and I'm finished for the day. Ended up £174.53 down. There were a few half chances today but nothing that really caught my eye. It goes like that some days. Let's see what Tuesday brings!
  
   

Tuesday 24th January 2012 - 94.3kg
 

• having a little trade of the early greyhounds and made a schoolboy error of trying to back my way out of a bad trade. Of course the mutt lost and I did more cash than just taking the red. What a tosser! Think I'll just go and flush my head down the loo (and if you've seen the state of the bogs around here that's not a nice experience ... not that I've ever tried it before of course).
   
• see it ... click it!
   
• just backed 'Warden Bond' for a place in the 14:30 at Kempton. A strong galloping sort, but for some reason the jokey thought he was on a Suzuki and never got it prominent at all, hoping instead that it would suddenly sprout an extra leg in the final 2F.
   
• backed 'Mottley Crew' over 5F at Southwell when it jumped and was prominent. Stays 6F at Southwell so was well pleased at backing one early and actually winning some cash. It's funny that it can sometimes seem like weeks since you've had a winner (unfortunately for my Dad it's more like months) ... come on Dad,  pick up the phone and get stuck in!!
   
• anyone for 'Plum Pudding'? Sometimes you get days where you're just a lucky fucker. The 15:40 at Leicester, 'Toby Belch' starts slowly and doesn't seem to be too keen in a 3 mile chase in the soft. The price drifts and then I spot good old Toby coming back on the snaff, so I take advantage and back him at 3.0 for a place. I'm feeling well pleased as now he's looking well happy and jumping like Pegasus. Strangely, though, his price isn't shortening, in fact no one wants to back him. On closer inspection I now realise that I have in fact backed 'Plum Pudding' who is slowly disappearing out the back on the TV. Bearing in mind we have 50in widescreen plasmas that's a fucking long way behind! So I sit there for the next mile of the race watching him struggle around, almost tailed off. I don't even bother watching the last few furlongs as the pain is like a hot knife to the testicles. Then, as I cast my eyes to the screen here he comes! Good old 'Plum Pudding', sprinting as fast as 'Choisir', leaps the last like a gazelle and romps into third place! What price for the Grand National??
   
• ended up £223.21 up and completely cream crackered!
  
   

Wednesday 25th January 2012
 

• studying the AW form and about to have a cuppa. Today should be a bit better as we should have some more opportunities with 2 RUK meetings and Lingfield on the AW. Let's see how it goes.
   
• up and down like a yo-yo at the moment, but definitely playing more aggressively. All I need now is a few winners! (or losers if I'm laying 'em).
   
• it's 19:30 and there's one more left at Kempton. I'm knackered and the A13 has come to a grinding halt so I'll have to give it 30 minutes and play a few dog races before I head off home and hit the sack.
   
• ended up £271.60 up and the A13 was as clear as a bell. Got stuck into a few more pages of 'The Daily Trading Coach', a must read for anyone serious about their trading. Night night ...
  
   

Thursday 26th January

• feeling on top of my game and having a good look at Kemptons card tonight. Might have to tread cautiously though and not get too excited!
   
• it's been a tough day already, and it's only 15:31! Patience is the key. Opportunities will be along soon ... (I'm an optimistic bloke).
   
• my concentration has been so bad today. I've missed the start of at least 3 races by fucking about doing other things, like watching the poker WSOP on ESPN. That's a really unprofessional approach. I'm not going to win money watching the telly.
   
• well pretty much a non-event today. Concentration levels were poor and I never really got into the groove. The markets at Kempton were also shite, so even though we picked a few good bets the markets presented no opportunities in-play as they were so weak. The final tally was a small loss of £15.82. A fair card tomorrow so maybe I'll be able to nick a few quid and boost the monthly total to something a bit more respectable.
  
   

Friday 27th January

• finally got around to subscribing for the Timeform in-play cards and they've already saved me a bundle. Will be interesting to see how I change my plan of attack over the sticks now that I'm armed with a bit of information as to how these beasts normally run. I'm already experiencing the conflict of what the form is telling me against what my eyes are telling me .... should be an interesting day!
   
• this Timeform service is a real eye opener, especially as I know nothing about jumping form. To coin a phrase from one of our well known money making machines 'I feel like a dog with 2 cocks'.
   
• you've got to be in it to win it. Well I'm not in it and I'm not winning it ... what a pillock!
   
• well that was a long good Friday. Won a few shillings at Dundalk which meant that I ended up winning £103.92 on the day. Not a brilliant total for 12 hours work, but felt strangely super motivated for the task ahead and ready to smash it tomorrow.
  
   

Saturday 28th January

• not a lot of smashing going on so far ... typical Saturday for me really.
   
• no AW cards tomorrow so that will give me a chance to study Mondays card at Wolverhampton and now I can stay one day ahead of the racing.
   
• had a dabble on the greyhounds this evening. Only playing £50 a click but managed to scrape a few extra shillings into the P&L. Got a nice cuppa on the brew and then a few more pages of 'The Daily Trading Coach' while contemplating my days winnings of £125.39.

Sunday 29th January

• well it seems as though Jack Frost is about to get busy in February in an attempt to scupper my plans. I'll have to double-up my AW analysis and start smashing into a few as it looks as though we'll lose a few jump meetings this month.
   
• Ffos Llas (impossible to get any cash there) and Leopardstown (almost impossible) today. So it's a case of sitting tight and waiting for a nice opportunity to come along ... and maybe trading a few dog races in-between.
   
• roll on the Summer. Two meetings today of crap racing and to really rub it in the SIS crew have decided that it's time we watched racing from Dortmund. Next week they're showing Yak racing from the Outer Hebrides. This means that we only get snippets of the greyhound coverage, making it harder to trade. And when they do decide to show the greyhounds it's over the top of the horse racing. These sort of days make me wish that I had a 12 gauge auto loader, a 45 long slide with lazer sighting, a phased plasma rifle in 40 watt range and an Ouzi 9mm, althogh that lot would probably cost me more than the £94.93 that I won today .
  
  
   

Monday 30th January

• I once knew a young Portuguese guy who was always saying 'I'm very tired'. I now know how he feels.
   
• all I need is a bigger pair of bollox and I'll be making as much cash as 'The Printer'. I'm going to really have to concentrate on developing a much more aggressive stance as my spineless method of playing is really holding me back, as today's winnings of £81.79 testify.
  
  
   

Tuesday 31st January

• not much to report today. Finished off the month up £142.54 today.
  
   

Surprise Surprise!!

Saturday was a strange day. I didn't have a good day trading and I felt a bit low at the end of the afternoon. However, when I walked into my local bar that evening and cast my eyes on all of my family and best mates I couldn't believe it! My crafty missus had arranged a surprise 50th birthday party. Well I have to say I had a brilliant night. The cast included my fantastic wife, my equally brilliant mum and dad, Marilyn and Chris, my sons, daughters, grandchildren, best mates that I have known since I was a nipper and various other friends and locals. It was great to see all of the people that I love in the same place at the same time. We all had plenty to drink and were entertained by Karaoke stars such as my son on the screaming vocals, DJ John, Tracy and Rob giving us an interesting version of Valerie, John C an X Factor star in the making and finally Jimmy and Tracy with a superb rendition of 'You're The One That I Want'. Hopefully next time Tracy will wear the tight leather leggings! Dancing entertainment was provided, amongst others, by Tina, Jayne, Rob and Don.

The whole night made me realise that there's much more to life than trying to win lots of money (although that's not a bad thing). It's much more important to have a great family and friends and I can count myself really lucky that I do indeed have all of this. So if any of you crafty fuckers are out there reading this, thank you from the bottom of my heart. I had a fantastic time and you all made me realise what is important in life. And to those of you approaching 50 .... beware, I'm going to get you back!

Much love and kisses - Dave.

See it .... CLICK IT!

Just thought I'd add a quick post to remind myself  'see it ... click it'.

It seems quite a few of us I/R players sometimes pause a little bit too long before clicking the button. Now sometimes this means that we miss great opportunities, but sometimes it means we don't lose by being a little too hasty. Thinking about this, it would really simplify things if we could always click immediately every time we spotted one of these opportunities. This will lead to more losers, but also more winners, and if we're any good at this game our winners should still cover our losses. Additionally we wouldn't have to beat ourselves up over missed opportunities. This is also a great way to alleviate the burden of the premium charge as we'd be turning over a greater volume of cash. So from today you won't hear me say 'fuck I missed that one', because if I see it I'm gonna click it.

Cheers - Dave.

And they're off and running ...

Well we certainly are off and running! It's been fairly quiet in terms of the I/R horse racing but I've managed to keep myself really busy. Here's my scribblings from the last few days:

• as promised I've been getting into the office well before 10:00. This has given me plenty of time to study the AW cards and get myself sorted. I must admit that I now feel much more prepared for the day ahead. The only downside is that I do sometimes feel tired towards the end of the day. If I feel myself getting tired then I make sure that I skip a few races or play cautiously to help try and avoid any costly mistakes. When we get to the Summer months then I may have to take a late afternoon snooze in the back of the motor!
   
• at the start of racing on 01/01 I did feel quite nervous. It's really strange as one day out of 365 shouldn't really make a great difference to the result. I suppose that I'd got myself so pumped-up that I felt a bit like Linford Christie at the start of the Olympic 100m final .. apart from the fact that I wasn't sitting here in skin tight lycra proudly displaying my meat and 2 veg.
   
• two words that constantly pop up in my little pad are 'patience' and 'concentration'. I feel that I have made big improvements in both of these areas over the last few weeks, and by frequently reminding myself to concentrate and be patient I'm making sure that I stay in control of my emotions and ultimately make better decisions when required.
   
• as mentioned above there are still occasions where I'm not feeling particularly relaxed. Hiring a personal female massage therapist might be the answer, but failing this I'll just have to work on my relaxation and visualisation techniques. If this fails then I'll just stick a few Hoegaardens in the fridge and pull 'em out when required.
   
• the AW study is beginning to pay dividends. I has a good winner on 02/01 and I'm wondering how I ever played the AW without knowing the form in the past. I'll be looking to play more aggressively on the AW in the coming weeks.
   
• the only downside to studying the form is that it is time consuming and gets fucking boring after a while. However, as I build-up my notes on each horse then it should be easier to maintain these notes in the future. As we move into the Summer and have more flat racing then I'll probably only be focusing on the form of the top 2 or 3 in each race. I want to be in a position so that form wise I know more than anyone else who I am playing against, so when I think this way then I don't mind being bored. The more bored I get the more money I'll make!
   
• I've been avoiding small field NH races on SIS as you're pretty much on a hiding to nothing trying to play behind the track players. I'l let them fight amongst themselves and wait for better opportunities to arrive.
   
• I did have to remind myself at one point to 'smile and have fun'. I think that you can sometimes get bogged down in the seriousness and stress of it all and you forget all of the good things that this lifestyle can bring, like having no twat of a boss to report to, not having to wear a suit (my personal favourite), being able to take days off and going out on the piss whenever you want, staying in bed if you feel like it, the feeling of winning more in a day than what some people earn in a week and more importantly doing something that you enjoy. So smile, be happy, and enjoy the ride!
  
   
• I'm going to video myself trading at some point in the next week as it will be interesting to see what sort of body language I present during races. It should be entertaining. Will I look and operate in a calm and relaxed manner or will I look like a nervous wreck. Should be fun, but don't expect me to post up any videos unless I look like a right Pro.
   

• just got hit by last weeks premium charge and it's like getting kicked in the nuts by a skinhead wearing steel toe capped Dr Martins.

• This is only going to spur me on to win more and maybe risk taking the odd hit in order to negate the PC. Watch this space ...
   

Well Kempton AW this evening and I've had a good study so onwards and upwards. I'm gonna smash it!!!

Cheers - Dave.

Happy New Year 2012!

Happy New Year people and here's wishing you all a healthy and profitable 2012.

I've been working hard over the last few days and have made several observations about my trading. I make notes as my day progresses and here's what I've highlighted:

• I've tweaked my custom back and lay buttons and I'm happy with my setup at the moment. I realise that I'll have to increase these as I progress and ultimately I'll be playing with stakes and/or liabilities of four times greater than what I'm currently using. As mentioned previously a lot of traders find it mentally challenging to up their stakes, even when they are regularly making money. The way that I have managed to do this is by spending a few minutes each morning focusing intently on exactly why I want £200K. When I think about giving myself the opportunity to buy a new house and move to the coast, and how much I want that and how much that means to me,  then I realise that I'm not going to get this by betting stakes that are not appropriate. I also focus on the fact that I've been trading I/R for more than 3 years and I've always made a decent monthly profit. None of us are ever going to make really good money or make significant changes in our lives without stepping outside of our comfort zone and rising to the challenge. Once I've pondered on these facts for a few minutes each morning then I'm ready to smash in!
   
• I've realised that some days will present more opportunities than others. We've recently had a few great days of racing, including tomorrow, but then on Tuesday we only have 2 meetings, Southwell and Ayr. So I'm not going to beat myself up if I don't make a lot on these days when the racing is skinny. This also applies to races where the liquidity is non-existant, like many Irish races. These sort of races would really get on my tits as I couldn't believe that there could be so little money in the market. I'll be making a conscious effort to play each day in a similar fashion, as I know that the profits will even out over the month.
    
• I've been much more patient and relaxed during trading over the last few days and this has really helped me to focus and trade efficiently.
    
• I've set my football staking so that I'll win £50 whenever I trade early in the game or £100 when I play late on in the game. I made small profits on the footty in December so I'll see how it goes in January.
   
• as stated previously I really do believe that I have the AW racing by the bollox. I've only just started compiling my notes but I'm already highlighting some nice selections. One of the problems that I've had in the past is trusting my pre-race analysis. Although I have analyzed races correctly I haven't really profitted from my study as I'm still reticent about backing pre-race or early in a race. I'm going to be focusing all of my spare time on analyzing the AW races and monitoring how my selections get on during January. I realise that I need to play much more aggresively in these races and no doubt this fact will gradually sink in over the next couple of weeks as I rack-up a never ending list of winning/placed horses! I'll be posting some of my selections here (I'm CanaryDwarf), so feel free to take a look and see how I'm doing during January.
   
• during the last few months of 2011 my days were pretty disorganised. As well as trading I also like going to the gym and I'm also learning how to play the guitar. Along with the occasional trip to the pub and the subsequent lie in bed the following morning my days were becoming rushed and I felt that I was struggling to make any progress in any of the above activities, apart from the drinking where I was excelling until I crashed and burned in spectacular fashion after drinking numerous pints of Stella on a pre-Xmas drink with my fantastic mates that I have known from when I was a youngster. So as from today I'll be getting my ass out of bed early doors (alarm is set for 07:00), I'll be off to the gym and in the office by 10:00. I'll also be setting some time aside for my guitar practice, much to the annoyance of my neighbours!
   
• one of the things that I'll be continually reminding myself is to work as hard as possible in 2012. I truly believe that to meet my targets I'm going to have to work really hard and effectively during 2012 and maybe not take so many days off when the days are nice and sunny.
   
• I always try and spend a few minutes just thinking about the positive things in my life before I start trading. Thinking about my great family, the fact that I've been able to trade for a living and the fact that I'm good at what I do, puts me in a really positive mood for the day.
   
• I bought some earplugs to use during trading so that I didn't have to rely on commentaries or get inadvertently swayed by pre-race selections from the 'experts' on Racing UK. They're weird! (yes the earplugs and the 'experts'). Watching a race unfold in pure silence is really good, but it's also quite hard to adjust to without the help of the on-course commentator. I must admit that I gave up after a couple of hours, but I'll try again and see how I get on ... watch this space.
   
• I did dabble in some pre-race trading early in December and it was interesting to see the reults at the end of the month. On most of my losing trades I noticed that I nearly always started with a lay bet. This echoes my natural preference for laying horses I/R. There is obviously some mileage on working on my pre-race trading, but it all comes down to using my time efficiently. I've decided to build on my strengths in the I/R market by spending as much time as possible analyzing the AW cards (as mentioned above) so the pre-race trading will have to take a back seat for the time being.
   
• as mentioned above, the market in some Irish races can be abysmal. This gives the opportunity to become a market maker as opposed to taking prices that are on offer. I may look into setting-up a different Gruss profile where I can market make, although I'd almost certainly being playing against those fucking wanky market making bots that jump in front of you a millisecond after your bet hits the system.
   
• one thing that would often break my concentration was the constant stream of crap being pumped out by Racing UK and especially SIS. To be honest they're not really racing channels are they? Who wants to see racing from South Africa , France or Germany? Even worse is that cartoon racing! Who the fuck wastes their money on that crap? I like greyhound racing but they purposely superimpose it over the horse racing ... and as for those fucking 49'ers!! As you can probably tell this sort of crap really used to get on my tits. However these days I take it with a pinch of salt. I might have the ocasional outburst but I always calm-down before the next race starts.
   
• my knowledge of jump racing form is non-existant and I've been caught out laying a few stayers in the last week. Time to sign-up for the Timeform in-play cards!
   
• I did go into 'protection' mode during the last race of the day on a couple of occasions. I suppose that it's a natural instinct not to want to give back your days profits on the last race, but on both occasions I missed winning bets. I'll give myself a slap with a wet fish next time I feel defensive towards the end of the day!
   
• I did also experience an I/R paralysis of my clicking finger after I had laid a horse over the jumps. My lack of clear thinking caused me not to safeguard my profit and ultimately I lost. I know what I should have done so I'll be better prepared when this scenario happens again in the future.
   
• I'll being looking at my bets on a daily basis to make sure that I'm effectively utilising my bank. I need to make sure that I'm risking £500 'ish per day. As I don't trade in every race I do have days where I've only traded in a few races, so I may need to trade slightly more aggresively when I do get involved.
  
  Well that's it for now. Plenty of good racing tomorrow and the gym is back open so I'm looking forward to beating the fuck out of the heavy bag, having a good steam, getting myself in a positive mood and smashing into the racing.
  
  Happy New Year!
  
  Cheers - Dave.

Monthly Targets for 2012

I've put some thought into how much I need to win on a monthly basis in order to reach the £200K target. I've had a look at number of meetings that are due to be held each month and obviously there are far more races scheduled in the months of May - August. My initial thoughts are that I need to gradually build my bank in the first 3 months of the year, aiming for monthly wins of £5K, £7K and £10K respectively. I'll also have to change my PIN number so that my missus doesn't get her hands on any of my hard earned.

There are approximtely 115 meetings in January (update: there were in fact 117 in January) and February (update: there were in fact only 95 in February) , rising to approximately 130 in March (update: there were in fact 133 in March). Obviously the weather will no doubt force the cancellation of a number of these meetings.

My starting bank is £2000 and I aim to increase my stakes and/or aggressiveness as my bank grows, although I'll only need £1100 in my account as a working bank during January.

As the volume of racing picks up (180+ meetings per month in the Summer) I'll be looking to get £14K in April (approx a monkey per day (update: there were in fact 123 meetings in April) and £18k in May (approx £600 per day). For June through to August I'll be looking to get £20k per month (approx £700 per day). For the remainder of the year I'll be looking to get £15k per month.

My initial attempts at Football trading are going OK, but it's still a bit too early to say how much I think that I could win, but I'm pretty confident that at some point I could take at least £500 out of game. We'll have to wait and see ....
I'll stick the obligatory graph up somewhere when I learn how to do it!

Let's get ready to rumble! ... Dave.

Working on my psychology

As mentioned in my previous post I've just started reading 'The Daily Trading Coach' and it's already highlighted some of the areas that I need to address. One suggestion is to compile a concise daily trading journal where you can make a note of what you've done well during the day and also those things that could have been done more effectively. If you then take a look at your journal when it's quiet in the evening and you're having a nice cuppa then it becomes easy to see your strengths and weaknesses. Here's my notes from the last few days trading:



Monday 12/12

• my first thought when I logged on was 'bollox, just remembered that I lost yesterday'. This immediately put me in a miserable mood and the seeds of doubt with regards to my trading ability started to creep into my head. Now I know from experience that EVERY trader experiences this feeling. The strange thing was that I had actually only lost less than £100 ... yet this triggered these feelings of doom and gloom.
  Resolution: my first task will be to ensure that I am in a nice relaxed, focused and positive state of mind whenever I sit down at my desk to trade. I'll spend some time just relaxing, clearing my mind and maybe listening to some music before I actually focus on my goals and start pressing any buttons.
   
• when you're trying to improve something in your life then I suppose it's always best to get advice from people you know who have 'been there, seen it, done it'. Well I just realised that every day I sit in a room full of experienced traders! So over the next few days I'll be probing the finely tuned minds of these boys in order to determine their strengths and weaknesses. One or 2 of them may tell me to 'fuck off' but from the feedback that I get I should be able determine 'what makes a great trader'.
  Task: construct a list of the strengths and weaknesses above. Use this list to determine where I need to focus my efforts in order to improve my own strengths and negate the weaknesses.
   
• I had been trading on the greyhounds up until a few months ago. I was using a technique that was making me regular profits on certain tracks and breaking even on most of the others. I used this initially just to turn over more money in order to ease the burden of the dreaded BF poll tax. I've brought this back into action and I'm going to monitor this so see how it goes in December.
  Task: monitor greyhound trading during December and combine this with previous stats to find most profitable tracks. If any tracks provide regular losses then investigate ways of amending my trading technique accordingly to change losses in to profit, i.e if I'm doing something that produces regular losses then reversing my strategy should turn the losses into profit.
   
• I've noticed that even when trading the greyhounds and the football I tend to get somewhat caught up in the emotions of it all. Now I'm only really trading for relatively small amounts so I need to stay a bit more relaxed and go with the flow.
  Resolution: focus on staying more relaxed during these events.
   
• to make sure that I'm better prepared when the racing starts I need to get my ass out of bed a bit earlier! Over the past few months I've become a bit lazy in terms of how much preparation I'm doing before racing. To be honest it's virtually zero. Therefore I'll be getting into the office a lot earlier so that I can have a good study and prepare myself for the day ahead. Also the greyhounds start at 11:00 so I need to be in to take advantage of some early winnings!
  Resolution: get into the office by 10:30.
   
• I'm going to make a big effort on analyzing each days AW cards. I'll be doing this the previous evening from home which will help in my preparation (see above).
  Resolution: have all AW cards analyzed the night before.
   
• I'm still a novice to pre-race trading and one of the things that I still haven't worked out is the best time to enter and exit the market. I think that this is one of the key criteria for the pre-race game and hopefully Jack of 'The Sports Trading Journey' will be able to point me in the right direction.
  Task: subscribe to STJ.
   
• I wouldn't walk on a tightrope without a safety net so I'm going to plant a few quid in various bookie accounts and Betdaq for when our beloved BF crashes at 15:00 on a Saturday leaving my goolies exposed to the wind.
  Task: put some of the hard earned in Hills and Co.
   
• staying calm is probably the biggest factor in being able to trade both happily and successfully. I'll be implementing a few relaxation techniques over the next few days starting with some interesting 'music' from 'Hemi Sync'. I've tried these before and they're perfect for inducing different states of the mind, from calm and relaxed to hyper responsive and on the ball. I'll be plonking the headphones on before and even during trading (who needs commentary?) and I'll let you know if they help.
  Task: fire up the Ipod with the Hemi Sync 'tunes'.
   
• one of my major in-running stumbling blocks is the reticence to enter a back bet as my first (and maybe only) trade. Ever since I started playing in-running I've always had a tendency to want to be a layer. I find this especially over the jumps, where I'm literally afraid to back a selection in case it falls! I have been working on this 'phobia' over the last few weeks and happily I'm finding that backing can be as profitable as laying.
  Task: break-down my P&L for December to determine my current ratio of successful backs against lays.
   
• on a positive note I did make a good back bet in a jumps race and greened-up nicely using a lay of 1.1. I was well pleased with that and now I feel that I can make similar trades more often.
  
  
  Tuesday 13/12
   
• I've found that in the past the task of compiling notes for the AW races has been very time consuming. Therefore I'll be using a type of 'code' to highlight the running styles of each horse and I'll be storing these on Gruss notes.
  Task: compile code, which will be along the lines of the codes found on the Timeform in play cards.
   
• staying focused for long periods of time can be quite hard and I often find myself getting distracted, usually by Rachel Riley on Countdown. This usually happens when I'm having a good day and perhaps I'm relaxing a bit too much.
  Resolution: now that I've set my goal of £200K I need to make sure that I'm on the ball in order to maximize my profits. If I do want to watch the telly then I should really switch of my screen.
   
• I has a few positives to report today. I backed and traded well at the start of the day and some basic form study paid dividends at Southwell. I also think that I judged a race well but didn't enter a trade as I correctly identified a tussle between 2 horses as being too close to call. This also made me think on how I could have profited from this scenario and I'll be setting up some new custom buttons to cater for this when it happens again.
  
  
  Wednesday 14/12
    
• at the start of the day I was feeling quite nervous. Sitting here now I don't know why. Perhaps it was that I was late into the office so I gave myself not time to prepare.
  Resolution: from tomorrow I'll be in the office at 10:30 and that will give me ample time to get prepared.
   
• I had a good early chance at Lingfield and failed to make it pay as I was too slow to react. I can see now that this was probably due to me not be prepared in advance.
  Resolution: as above.
   
• as from tomorrow I'll be increasing my stakes. I am currently using £105 per click and I'll double this to £210 for both my back and lay bets. I'll also change my custom columns to give a liability of £210 per click.
  Task: change buttons accordingly. Then sit down, relax, and visualise the extra winnings that will be coming my way.
  
  
  Thursday 15/12
    
• I got in early today and felt much better prepared.
   
• I've changed most of my 'lay' custom columns so that my liability is £210 per click. I've also raised my back and lay buttons to £210 per click in order to increase my winnings.
   
• I traded well early and felt confident and in control even though my wins were relatively small. However, as the day progressed I began to feel more and more tired, probably due to the fact that I have a cold. I was sensible and skipped a few races while I relaxed a bit and tried to get myself more focused.
  
  
  Friday 16/12
  
  
• I felt a bit pissed-off early doors as my greyhound strategy cost me over £300 in the last 24 hours.   However, this has happened a few times in my last few months on the greyhounds but I've always shown a profit on the greyhounds at the end of each month. The purpose of betting the greyhounds was to turn over more cash so as to offset the premium charge. After careful consideration I think that I'm going to shelve the greyhound strategy in favour of being more aggressive on my horse racing trading. This will also mean that I'll be better prepared before each horse race instead of scrambling about between races placing greyhound bets.
   
• during the day I reminded myself to stay relaxed, chilled and positive and reminded myself that it's all about controlling the mood swings. I think that I lost on the day but felt that I traded well and just had one of those days where a few things went against me.
  
  
  Saturday 17/12
  
  
• for a while now I've felt that Saturdays promise so much yet often produce not a lot of profit. It's strange because I had a few beers with some of the STJ pre-race traders and they find Saturdays be be one of their best days. Maybe at some point I'll analyze my previous years P&L to see if this is true and maybe find out what days of the week and maybe what tracks are my most profitable.
   
• during trading I noticed that I needed a tweak to my custom buttons as once or twice I had nice positions but didn't have the relevant custom button to give myself a bit of a safety net.
   
• I had a good lay bet in 1 race and didn't green-up as I felt that the horse was beat. The horse rallied from nowhere and I did my money! However I took the loss very well and it didn't effect my subsequent trading.
   
• one thing that often gets me is inadvertently listening to the twat pre-race analysis on the TV, especially Turf TV. They often put ideas in your head just before the race starts and I then find it hard to watch the race unfold in an unbiased manner. I do tend to keep the headphones off until the last moment, but I must try harder!
   
• at the end of the day it felt like another disappointing Saturday. I might consider switching to pre-race trading .... I'll have to give this some thought.
  
  
  Sunday 18/12
  
  
• I realised that I need to set some monthly targets and calculate these based upon my initial bank amount and the number of race meetings per month.
   
• as mentioned above I had a chance to have a few beers with some of the STJ pre-race trader guys and they're a good bunch. We'll stay in touch and it will be interesting to see how we all do in 2012.
   
• on the way home I found myself re-tracing my old route home from when I worked in the City. In the last couple of years doing that job I really hated it and couldn't wait to find another way of making a living. My journey home reminded of how fucked-off I used to be and that's made me even more determined to work hard and succeed in 2012.
   
• I realised that I'm best suited to a patient and aggressive strategy so I make sure that I put myself in this mindset before I start trading each day.
  
  
  Monday 19/12
  
  
• traded well today and felt aggressive yet in control. Did get a bit jittery during 1 or 2 wagers but all-in-all feel like that I'm already making progress.
   
• I spent some time trying to determine how much I need to win on a monthly basis and I'll publish this in a separate post.

The Start

OK, for a start, this is not like any other Betfair or Betdaq challenge that pops up every now and then ... for me this is a MUST DO. I've been trading on Betfair for the past few years and I've recently realised that I'm stuck in a rut and my trading is becoming less and less productive. So I've decided to shake things up a bit and set a few goals ... all leading to the main goal of winning £200K in the next year.

Now, literally as I type this I'm thinking to myself  'there's no way I can come anywhere close to winning that amount' and I did actually change the target to what seemed a more achievable figure of £120K. Well that would have been a pretty negative start! I need at least £200K as I am going to retire from full-time trading and move from the oasis of Newham to somewhere nice on the coast (with or without the missus) and all before I reach the age of 51 (early 2013). Now in today's economic climate no fucker will lend me that sort of cash based on my current Betfair P&L so I'm going to have to earn it all myself.

I do need to get myself prepared both mentally and physically so for ease of reference I'll be starting the ball rolling on January 1st 2012. Just sitting here I've already calculated that I'll need to earn an average of £600 per day and my immediate thought is 'I can't do that'. So obviously one of my main goals to deal with over the next week or 2 is to change my mindset as to what is readily achievable. Horse racing opportunities during January to March are pretty limited due to the actual numbers of UK races that are run as opposed to the height of the summer so I will be making the extra on football and maybe USA racing and the greyhounds. Fortunately I've seen guys able to make this and a lot more, so I know for a fact that it is a realistic target.


So why do I have to blog my exploits? Well one of the main reasons is to help me change what I do on a day-to-day basis. The fear of failure and making myself look a right twat will me make more focused and will force me to implement the changes that I need to make. When I make these changes and they become habits then the trading will become more fun as I'll be a lot more successful. Additionally I've enjoyed reading material by the likes of Koo (fantastic thread on the BF forum which gives a lot of tips, if you read it carefully, on how to make it pay) and Adam Heathcote and to be honest it's going to be a nice ego boost to show people what can be achieved with a bit of hard work. If I can help others along the way then that will be a great bonus and no doubt I will also pick up quite a bit of useful information and feedback that I can use to help me reach the £200K.


So what am I going to be doing over the next few days. Well I have already identified a few key areas that I need to address:

• the psychology of trading : probably the most important facet of successful trading. Trading can sometimes be the biggest mind-fuck of all time. When things are going well then it's like 'finding money in the street' or 'free money' as 1 or 2 have been heard to shout in the exchange. The world is a great place and you just can't wait to get started the next day as profits are guaranteed. However, just one day of bad results can seem to indicate the end of the world, or even worse the end of in-running!
  I have read somewhere that the main difference between good and great traders is the ability to implement proven winning strategies in a calm and efficient manner independant of the fact that you might have just have done your bollox backing a Nora Looby ridden maiden in the 14:30 at Lingfield. In a nutshell this means being able control your emotions when things don't go to plan, and in particular avoiding the dreaded 'tilt' factor which more often than not causes you to turn a bad day into a horror show. Just think about this: if you have a winning strike rate of 90% then that's pretty good. But out of 100 races you're going to lose, on average, 1 in 10 of those races. You're not always going to win on 9 then lose on 1. You might have a losing streak of say 5 or 6 races. This is the sort of time when you need to trust in your judgement and continue to implement your winning strategy despite the fact that it seems that the world and Tony McCoy are plotting against you!
  I'm currently reading Brett Steenbaragers book 'The Daily Trading Coach' which delves into the psychology of trading and looks at ways in which you can become your own trading coach. I'll let you know if this is a worthwhile buy after I've ploughed through a few chapters and implemented some of the ideas.
   
• form study : I currently trade almost entirely in-running. However, at present I don't study any form at all (which may be a surprise to many readers). Up until last week I still thought Jonjo O Neil was a jockey! I have heard good feedback with regards to the Timeform in-play cards (especially for the jumps) so I will be getting a monthly subscription. This will enable me to go into each NH race with a pre-determined plan of action. Unlike a lot of race fans I do like the all-weather and I'll be working hard on studying the running styles of the current crop of regular all-weather horses based upon the speed at which races are run. I'm pretty confident that most of my profit in the January to March period will come from this all-weather study.
   
• pre-race trading : I have been experimenting with the pre-race markets over the last few weeks, with varying levels of success, and I'd like to exploit this opportunity to help me towards the £200K. I have spoken briefy in the past to Jack Birkhead of 'The Sports Trading Journey' and I'll be signing up to his 6 month plan. I know that he is very analytical and focused so I'll be taking the opportunity to pick-up on what he has to offer.
   
• football trading : I do like football but like Steve McClaren I haven't got a clue about form, teams, formations, etc. However I have been working on a trading method that may allow me to make profits on football trading. This is still work-in-progress so watch this space.
   
• Betdaq : I need to get some funds into my Betdaq account. Giving 20% of my winnings each week to Betfair really gets on my tits.

Some words that I have deliberately avoided using :

• 'hopefully' - if I'm always 'hoping' that something happens then I think that I'll have a long wait before I get to £200K. Therefore I won't be using the word 'hopefully' in this blog (let me know if you spot one!) ... apart from that one just there of course.
   
• 'challenge' - this is not a challenge it's a 'MUST DO'. I'm not prepared to fail and the word 'challenge' leaves you open to saying 'well I was really up for the challenge and I gave it my best shot but I failed' ... that's not for me.
   

Well that's all for now - Dave.