Forget the money..... become effective

I was replying to a post on the 'Trading for Freedom' website and as I was typing the reply I noticed that I was in fact giving myself some useful information. One of the members had set himself a goal of winning a certain amount on a daily basis by the end of each month and he was beginning to feel frustrated as he hadn't yet reached that goal. I replied that he shouldn't be particularly worried about how much he had won every day. My own experience is that your trading will be affected if you are continually looking at your P&L during the day. I have mentioned this before, the only thing that you should be focussing on while your are trading is the trading itself. Therefore it stands to reason that if you fully concentrate on how you are trading and your focus is to improve how you trade (by cutting out schoolboy mistakes, being patient and waiting for clear cut opportunities, not being reckless, sticking to a defined staking plan, sticking to any other rules that you may have, gradually improving your knowledge and enhancing your strategies, etc) then your trading will improve, your confidence will grow, and in turn you can gradually increase your stakes and ultimately win more money. So effectively you should reach a stage were you are winning an average daily amount that meets or exceeds your old monetary based goal.

I did venture out on Friday evening and entertained a few sherberts (unfortunately the second boozer that we frequented only served Fosters) and managed to stumble back home at about 03:15 accompanied by a large doner and chips!

After my debacle with my car I managed to get a replacement 100A PAL fuse and stuck that in this morning, connected the batteries and hey presto ..... I'm back in action!

Yesterday (Saturday) was the first day that I really noticed the difference in the pre-race markets on busy days, such as Saturdays. Most of my trading was either pre-race or early doors in the win market and my forays into the place market were much less, so I felt as though I'm finally making the transition away from the place market and into the win for both pre-race and IR.


05/02

Not much to report, apart from the fact that the sun has come out and we have 3 meetings today and Southwell AW is back in action.

Just stumbled across this on YouTube. I've only had the chance to watch the first few minutes but it looks really interesting.

... and you thought trading on Betfair was difficult!


13/02

Well we have a few more meetings today, five to be precise, so thing are picking up a bit and Cheltenham is only just around the corner. I'm gradually getting my plan into action, that is pre-race trading in the win market, followed by early IR trading in the win market, followed by a bit of trading late on in the place market (hope that makes sense). I need to be a bit more aggressive in terms of stakes, so I'll get my arse in gear today and increase them slightly.

Laddies finally get Betdaq!

Well, well, well. Ladbrokes have finally acquired Betdaq. The questions is, will this change P2P betting as we know it? There are plenty of differing opinions on the BF forum (as you would expect) and to be honest I haven't got a clue. The thought of high liquidity markets and a much lower commission rate does give me an instant hard-on (I'm easily pleased) but whether or not things will improve, or even get worse, is anybodys guess.

Does anyone out there have any opinions as to where this may lead?

As an additional point, the only fucking advert that I ever see for BF is for 'Betfair Casino', and there was me thinking that the PC was supposed to help fund the drive to get more users on the exchange, not the fucking BF Casino! 

As for my progress, well I'm running in quicksand right now. It is true that the weather has decimated the racing over the last couple of weeks, and this had probably affected the markets. I'm still having a bash at the pre-race, with varying results, but my IR game seems to have picked-up (maybe because I've upped my stakes).

The short term weather forecast looks a bit better so maybe the racing and markets will return to normal? I have noticed that Lingfield AW has been unplayable this week so the track mongrels are probably out in force.

In my spare time I've been getting stuck into 'Trading in the Zone'. It does start to get a bit heavy and repetetive at around the halfway mark, and as it gets later in the evening it gets more and more tempting to ditch the book and watch silly videos on YouTube instead. The basic thrust of the book is to make the reader realise, and accept, that the way that the market moves (and I'm applying this to pre-race markets) is totally random.  Then once you've discovered your edge, through market analysis, spottting trends etc, you can then confidently trade the market, with pre-defined exit points, and not be affected by short term results (as you accept the randomness of the market) as you know that your proven edge will make you a winner in the long run, much like a casino or a traditional bookmaker.

If anything this has had more of an affect on my IR trading, as I'm no longer doubting my initial observations and getting involved when I see the opportunity, and not worrying if I have a losing race or losing day, as I have a proven edge which has served me faultlessly over the last 5 years.

So keep an eye on the BF share price and get ready to man the lifeboats!

28/01

It's been pretty quiet with regards to progress in the pre-race markets. I did have a small play in the IR win market at Cheltenham on Saturday, albeit for tiny stakes, but managed to win a few pennies in the six races that I traded. I recorded my trading and Jack is going to post the videos on the TFF website.
We only have 2 AW meetings this afternoon so I'll be back in the place market trying to nick a few quid.

30/01

Feeling really depressed and fucked off today. Poxxed about trying to put 2 new batteries in my car this morning and as usual nothing goes to plan and spent 2 hours fucking about, getting greasy and fucked right off! Also checked my P&L for January last night and that fucked me off as well, so in a nutshell I'm well and truly fucked right off.

31/01

Had a right fucking miserable day yesterday. Fucked my car and fucked my P&L. Going to trade today and then go out and get wankered tonight. Then in February I'm going to smash the fuck out of the market.

My car antics above reminded Steve (showing his age) of a classic comedy moment from a few years back when we were all nippers.

Let's Smash this Fucker!

OK. I've served my apprenticeship in this pre-race malarkey and now it's time to win a few shillings. I'm starting to grasp how the markets move and react in certain conditions so now I need to up the stakes and start getting involved!

PS It's my birthday today!

I'm burying myself practically 24 hours a day in watching how markets/selections move and thinking about the reasons that cause these moves and subsequent reactions. I literally plonk myself in front of the PC with a cuppa in the morning and just watch markets move. Then in the evening I do the same, but maybe with a Hoegaarden instead of a brew. Then when I hit the sack I don't spend hours making long, hot, passionate and totally fulfilling love to my wife (even though she's always gagging for it!) ...

.... oh no, I lie there thinking about price moves and graphs and how to win loads of cash!

I've recorded most of the races where I traded today. So it's off to the TFF webinar for a couple of hours followed by a marathon session watching my performance today and seeing what I did well, where I went wrong, and looking for more opportunities.

One more thing ..... judging by Adam Heathcote's progress chart if you can average £3.34 per in your first month of pre-race trading then after 4 months you could be averaging over £100 per day and after 6 months you could be averaging over £200 a day! Let's have it!!
 

15/01

I've been drinking tea and watching endless recordings of my recent trading sessions. It does fry the old brain cells somewhat, but it's good when you start spotting things and learning how to react to certain moves. I suppose it's a bit like the in-running where there's no real substitute for time spent watching thousands of horse races.

My P&L is still looking like a bag of shite as I'm still only on relatively small stakes but I'm moving up another level today, so if all goes well then I should be playing with decent stakes by the end of January.

16/01

Blimey it's freezing out there today!

Tried to get stuck in yesterday but really didn't play that well. However, I did record most of the races and spent a good 4 or 5 hours last night just watching the markets all over again and spotting the opportunities that I missed. In most cases I was just a bit too slow to react and I've also found that I've pretty much abandoned scalping altogether, which is not a good idea. So today I'll be looking to be more decisive and speedy, so we'll see how it goes and I'll report back later this evening ....

17/01

Fuck my old boots it's even colder than yesterday! Traded Lingfield AW and Newbury yesterday and fell into the old trap of trading Newbury the same way I would trade the AW ....WRONG! I find that the markets are completely different, so you have to trade differently!

So it was back to watching my screen recordings for the day to see where I went wrong and work out a way to trade these differernt types of market. I noticed that there seemed to be fewer spikes in the price movements and less movement in general. I also noticed that any moves seemed slower but maybe stronger, in that there were less reversals of any note. So in general the markets at Newbury seemed to be much tighter and stable, which is no surprise really as the racing is much higher quality and therefore the form is more stable.


19/01

How time flies since my post back in February 2012 titled 'I Fucking Hate the Winter!'. As if it wasn't hard enough already this poxxy snow, ice and rain looks set to fuck the racing for the next few days. Two meetings have survived today so we'll have to see if we can pick up some scraps of cash in order to pay the gas and electricity bill!

The good news is that Steve managed to get me a copy of 'Trading in the Zone', and judging by the first 40 pages it's going to be a cracking read and provide some much needed help in changing my psyschology and how I approach trading.

 

Well that didn't quite go to plan ...

So where did it all go wrong?

Well looking back at January it didn't seem like a bad start at all. It seemed that most days I was winning maybe £100+ and ended up winning nearly £4k on the month. So not a bad start at all.

I had 1 or 2 interesting days in February, losing a record amount of £1035 on the 21st and winning £752 on the 24th. The snow and ice did little to help matters, and it was in fact during March that I predicted that in-running was set to become a lot harder as it seemed that we were getting further and further behind what was happening live. I suppose it may also have been due to the increasing number of track players snaffling all of the prices before we even had the chance to see what was happening?  So due to these factors I only managed to get just under £5k over the 2 months.

I think that I also drank loads of beer and ate many kebabs during February and March and therefore probably spunked most of my winnings instead of being a tight fisted fuck and putting it into the bank.

I didn't really spend much time on my blog in April or May and for the life of me I haven't got a fucking clue what I did during those few weeks .... probably drunk more beer and didn't bother to save any of the £7.5k that I won.

The weather in June was crap .... I remember that! Obviously the racing picks up during the Summer and I didn't do too bad, but still somehow managed to spend more than what I earned! I managed over £11k during these months and probably should have had a lot more but spent most of it on more beer and trips to the coast!

... and yes, it was 09:05 in the morning!



In September I decided to get involved in the pre-race trading game. I think that I was beginning to sense the end of the place market as the liquidity seemed at an all time low. Things must have been bad as I'd only won £1.5k halfway through the month and I didn't even remember to download my monthly P&L at the end of the month!

October saw the wheels come flying off in spectacular fashion.

Just about scraped over the £1.4 mark for the month and realised that now something was seriously wrong, so decided to abandon ship at the exchange and start playing from home using BF live pics and RUK.

Spent November and December trying to master the pre-race game and seeing exactly how much I could still get from the place market playing from home. The answer: not a fucking lot! In fact I only managed to get just over £1.4k.

So the question is: where the fuck do I go from here? The first thing that springs to mind is the local Jobcentre. However, all is not lost ..... well hopefully!

The Plan for 2013

The place market is pretty much fucked, especially over the jumps, I know that. So the only option is to dive head first into the win market with all the big boys. I think it's just a case of sorting a few strategies and getting used to the price movements and playing differently on Gruss.

I am also going to combine the IR trading with the pre-race trading. I thought that I was making progress during November, albeit for small stakes, only to encounter a wobble during December. I think that I'm back on the right track and we'll just have to see how I progress over the next few weeks. I think that I'm going to play safe during January while I'm learning the ropes and I'll be happy if I can get £1k by the end of the month. Once I get up to speed just using smaller stakes then I can gradually up my stakes back to somewhere near normal when I feel that I know what I'm doing.

I must admit that life has been somewhat stressful over the last few weeks and I have turned into a right miserable fucker. I know that there are much more important things in life than money but it's still hard to come to grips with the fact that things have changed so quickly and it's a lot harder to just sit down and win £100+ every day. My missus has borne the brunt of most of my frustration and we've indulged in 1 or 2 tasty arguments since I've started working from home. She also didn't take too kindly to me likening her to a sloth in one of my previous posts (I suppose that's not really going to help matters). However, she's a diamond and I love her to bits.

 
I still want to move to the coast, and I still believe that it's possible to win big amounts of cash, it's just that it's a bit harder these days, but hey, that's life!


09/01

Fuck it! I thought I'd put my ugly boat on YouTube. I've had 75 trades over the last 3 days and only had 2 losses so I'm feeling like a dog with 2 cocks. I felt suicidal in December so I'm gonna bounce back in January and tell the world just how fucking good I am at this game.

10/01

Had 32 trades today and only 2 losses, so I'm feeling quite happy. Will probably up the stakes slightly tomorrow and crack on! And here's more words of wisdom ....

11/01

Another day where the strike rate was good so really need to start getting a bit more aggressive on the staking. Saturday tomorrow so should be an ideal day to up the stakes and see how I progress.

... and yeah I was a bricklayer. Still get the urge every now and then to throw down a few bricks but my trowel is rusty and my expensive Stabila level got bent by someone hitting it with a mallet (cheers Mike!).


12/01

Well the fact that Betfair went tits up just before 15:00 didn't exactly help things! Traded OK and a bit more aggressively but made a basic error in one market where I expected a reversal just before the off but got involved way too late when there was no real time left for a bounce back. Really need to gradually up the stakes and see how things progress.

13/01

Today was the day when I felt like everything was starting to come together with regards to the pre-race trading.

Just felt as though I was spotting moves and in many cases played the markets correctly. Did spend a lot of time in the evening just watching recordings of previous markets and trying to gain an ever greater understanding of what the fuck is happening each time a market goes bonkers.

Norovirus eh?

That motherfucker hurts!

There I was yesterday morning shopping for a £5.99 kettle in Argos and 3 hours later I'm shitting my pants, chucking up yellow shit with an acidity level of Sulphuric acid and trying to stem the stream of snot and blood from my nose while trying not to cry and scream too loudly!

So that about summed-up my effort in December. Things got really hard (hence the £5.99 kettle) and I'm not too sure were we go from here. The summer months yielded an OK result (although not exactly what I wanted at the start of the year) and looking back on my P&L for previous years December has never yielded above average profits.

So I need a few days to contemplate how I approach 2013, therefore I might fuck-off to Ramsgate to see in the New Year outside the Belgian Cafe while watching the fireworks once this Norovirus fucks off.

December

Well last month was an assault on my nervous system and my wallet. I've managed to do this, but in reverse!

I've never known the IR game to be in such a wanky state of affairs (well at least in the place market). November was a real struggle both in-running and trying to learn the pre-race game, all of it played havoc with my stress levels and I felt like going out and getting well and truly wankered last night.

I did go out for a few beers but ended up even more depressed when my local boozer was more like a morgue as opposed to how a boozer is supposed to be, especially on a Friday night.

If I was single I'd move tomorrow to the coast, but unfortunately I have my missus in tow and she has the ambition and drive of a sloth ... there, just had to get that off my chest.

I'm trying hard to master this pre-race game and I had a textbook day today, albeit for small stakes and small winnings. I played nicely all afternoon and then went and gave 50% of it back in the last race. That's how it goes I suppose.

As for this month, well I'm going to up my stakes back to their normal level and just try and plod on. As mentioned previously I do need to get into the win market but that's quite hard to do when I'm spending most of my time trying to learn the pre-race game.

And Wolves just been frozen off for tonight ... so it's off to channel 212 for a bit of dogging!

Fuck beards ... let's talk about gardens

Take a look at a recent picture of my garden and have a guess what sort of company I ran before I become an in-running player?

Yep, you guessed it .... I was a landscape gardener! Unfortunately my garden has always resembled a pikey's dumping ground. If you have a good rummage about out there you can find old radiators, scaffolding poles, a tyre, old bins full of various bits of crap, an old plastic shed and mountains of paving and paving blocks. God knows what's lurking down the far end, it looks like a scene from 'The Day of the Trffids'. Now that I'm working from home I've decided to get my arse in gear, polish the trowel, and get cracking out there. I've been spending a few hours each getting rid of some of the crap and I've already started block paving the passageway out into the garden, and if I may say so myself it's looking OK. I'll stick up a few pictures as I progress.


November 17

I'm still getting up to speed in terms of playing from home and mixing the in-running with the pre-race trading. It's OK playing from home, so I just need to get my game and stakes back up to a slightly higher level and also cut out the 1 or 2 silly mistakes that I've made this month. I reckon I've lost close to £300 by fucking up (backed a horse in 4th when I thought it was in 3rd close home and over the weekend managed to let the mouse slip onto a different selection just before I pressed the fucker!).

 

 

 

November 18

Not much happened today ...

However, the fantastic guys at Gruss have added an optional custom column to the Grid Interface that displays the first line contained in each selection's notes folder. I'll be using this to display my AW (all weather) abbreviated horse notes (and maybe the odd jumps horse notes here and there), and I'm sure that this will greatly help me in my IR trading. However, the biggest problem in compiling these notes is the time it takes, along with making sure that I only store relevant information. I did keep paper based notes back in Jan/Feb, but these just became too time consuming to maintain and update. So now I've devised a simpler and more effective way in which to store and present my notes. I've decided that for each horse I will abbreviate it's ideal trip, class and running style. My abbreviations will be as follows:


Pace

S = slow
A = average
G = good
F = fast


Position

L = leads
P = prominent
M = mid div
HU = held up
B = behind


Finishing Style

F = faded
STAV = stayed on averagely
ST = stayed on
FW = finished well
SAL = stays averagely late in the race


Other Notes

SA = slow away
MB = missed break
G = green
K = keen
O = outpaced
GW = goes well
J = jumps well
X = jumps poorly

So my notes will describe each horses ideal pace and position in a race along with it's usual running style and class limitations. So a typical example would be something like AMKSTAV7C5. This means that this horse runs best when the pace is an average one, it's positioned midfield, has been keeen in the past yet stays over a distance of 7F in class 5 races. Another example might be FOBFW7C4. This means the selection prefers a fast pace, will usually be outpaced and behind, but tends to finish well over 7F in class 4. In this example if the race was run at a slow pace then I would be a layer of this horse.


November 19

Continued compiling my horse notes today and realised, what I already knew, that they will be a super potent weapon that will potentially destroy even the keenest of track players. Although I had quite a few notes at the start of the year I now realise that maybe I didn't use them very effectively. They do take some time to compile but they should come into their own, especially when the AW really kicks into action.

Had a hopeless day in-running but feel like I'm about to get the pre-race trading by the bollox, something which I'm quite excited about!

November 20

Southwell, Folkestone and Fakenham .... oh what joy!

November 21

Bag of shite racing today but nicked a few quid.

November 22

Only 2 meetings today becase of the windy/rainy weather ... oh dear!

November 23

Bored shitless today. The place market has officially imploded ... think I might have to take the mighty step into the big bad win market!

November 24

Somebody out there must win on a Saturday? I always struggle, and today was no different. Concentrated mostly on the pre-race markets today so didn't do much IR apart from Lingfield and Wolves in the evening.

November 25

I fucking hate Sunday's ... especially when you're faced with trying to play Navan in the fucking fog! Did pretty much fuck-all until the penultimate race. I had layed McCoy for small money, but jumping the last he looked bang on for a place. The cameraman duly focused on the front 2 up towards the line, and I thought to myself, when he pans back then if McCoy is clear in 3rd I'll back him and nick a few quid back. The cameraman duly pans back, and there's McCoy plodding on for a guaranteed 3rd place, so I back him, then the horse takes 2 more strides, stumbles, and McCoy goes over his head! So onto the last race, and I should have smashed that mouse like a mad fucker. A bumper where the first 4 place, and I see Nina Carberry cantering all over them turning into the straight, and the commentator hasn't even mentioned her. So I back her for small at just over evens instead of smashing the living daylights out of her, and then back her a little bit more as she moves into second place. Nicked a few quid back but should have been a few hundred really. I really do need to grow some big fuckoff bollox and start smashing into these opportunities instead of playing safe all the time.

By the way, did I mention that the place market is now officially totally wankered? Well it is ... so I'm off to the win market. Last man out please turn off the light off ...

November 26

Fucking pants.

November 27

One fucking poxxy bag of shite meeting today .... so played the dogs instead.

November 28

Fucking hopeless.

November 29

Had a real frustrating day today. I think I'm right on the edge of making this pre-race game pay but I just keep making novicey mistakes. Just give me a few more days and the P&L should read a bit differently!

Fuck the racing ... let's talk about BEARDS!!

November 01

Yeah, big bushy ginger beards man!

Well, as you can see I've been cultivating the mother of all beards on my boat for the last few weeks. I reckon it's a sign of masculinity and virility, but my missus hates it and one of the guys in the gym recently remarked 'what the fuck is happening with your face!'. I've been determined to grow it as big as possible, but over the last few days it's become a right pain in the ass. It's like having a huge ball of velcro on your face, and everything that comes near it gets snagged. I met a very nice young lady last Saturday night, long legs, big tits and a gorgeous boat. Unfortunately she had the hairiest minge this side of the Thames ... you can guess the rest. I had to call the Fire Brigade at 2 in the morning to get us seperated!

Anyway, here it is at it's peak:
 

What a handsome bastard ... no wonder I pulled on Saturday night!

And after a bit of beard sculpting ala Edward Scissorhands it became this:

Then I thought 'fuck it', let's try a moustache:

And then I chopped it all off .... was a great laugh while it lasted.
 

So well it's November already eh? I've been playing from home today using BF live video and pre-race trading where I can, and I think that my decision making in the pre-race markets is already improving. I've chopped down on my stakes drastically. My pre-race stakes are £11 a click, just while I'm learning the game, and my IR stakes are down to £10 a click. By lowering my IR stakes to this level I can play a lot earlier and not risk doing my bollox during the next few days while I make sure that the BF live pics and internet speed are OK.

I've noticed a few things today that could throw up nice opportunities over the next few days/weeks so I'll be keeping an eye on these to see how they progress.

 

 

 

November 02 

 

Well I was quite happy with yesterday's trading. OK it was a long day, but I choked down on the stakes and still made a few quid and enjoyed myself along the way. Playing from home is a bit different from working in an office like environment. I can make a cuppa, rustle up something to eat, or do the washing-up and have a tidy around. However, I also got interrupted quite a bit by phone calls, knocks on the door, and even by my missus asking where the fucking iron was right in the middle of a race! Do I look like I use a fucking iron?

 

Anyway, I has a poor start to today as I was playing a little more carefree and got caught by a couple early doors, albeit for small stakes. I became more focused on the job at hand as the day progressed and once again ended up with a small profit.

 

I did manage to pre-race trade a few races, and here are my thoughts:

 

• there are different types of markets. Although that's obvious it can be pretty easy to try an adopt the same trading strategy in every race .... this will not work! The variables are such things as the meeting (Aintree has a bit more liquidity than Southwell for example), the number of runners, the prices of the favourite, etc. As I'm only a novice pre-race trader I didn't full understand the implications that these factors would have on trading the pre-race market. I think that I might compile a post dedicated to this area at some point later in the month.
  
  
• following on from the above I noticed that some markets can be very volatile, to say the least. This can present either a huge fuck-off danger or a real good opportunity.
  
  
• if you don't have a get-out plan for your trades then you can sometimes just sit there like a rabbit in the headlights when the market moves against you. I think that this is probably one of the most important areas in the pre-race game and needs some thought.

 

So here's how I did today:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 03

 

 

I had a quick look at some of the Oz races this morning are here are some of my cryptic notes that I'll use next Saturday ...

 

Oz tracks :

 

Albion Park - volatile and £5-25k matched

 

Alice Springs - steady and £8k matched

 

Ascot - steady and £55-72k matched

 

Bendigo - steady and £5-30k matched

 

Canberra (Mon) - volatile and £5k matched

 

Globe Derby - volatile and £1k matched

 

Junee - fuck all matched

 

Kalgoorlie -

 

Melton - 5K matched

 

Newcastle -

 

Scotsville - steady and £25k matched

 

Towoomba - steady and £38k matched

 

Wagga - fuck all

 

 

Well, I had a totally un-inspiring day today, lots of effort but very little reward. I'm still trying to adjust to my new way of IR trading and obviously still trying to learn the pre-race side of things. I did hang about and try and play the Breeders Cup races, but the video was so far behind that it was impossible to play IR.

 

 

 

 

 

Novermber 04

 

 

Had a hopeless start to the day and just felt like it was going to be a shit Sunday. It's strange that now I have drastically lowered my stakes I feel really pissed-off when I lose £10. I think that I was about £50 down and had the strong urge just to lay something to get back to level. I suppose that 'chase' instinct never goes away, no matter how hard you try and control it. However, I'm quite good at staying calm and carrying on, so that's what I did and gradually got a few wins on the board, mostly small in-running gains.

 

 

 

 

 

November 05

 

Another skinny day today .... nothing much happening on the trading front. I did however take part in the 'Trading for Freedom' webinar in the evening. Jack and Caan were online and analyzed one of the races that Caan had traded at Newmarket. It was really interesting listening to the guys as they explained how the market was moving and the reasons for entering trades.

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 06

 

Well I've had a few days to see how this playing from home is going, and I feel that it's now time to up my stakes back to normal levels and try and win some money. I'll have another day today fucking about with smaller stakes then stick 'em back up for Wolverhampton this evening (update: just had £105 on Lord Franklin to place for a profit of £12 and it holds on by a gnats cock .... oh the joys of IR at Wolverhampton!).

 

 

What's a tick worth?

 

As an IR player I've never really looked at the comparative value of trading a horse at low odds, let's say 1.7, against the value of trading a horse at 5.0. I was thinking about this after last nights webinar. The question I asked myself was 'if I am using a back stake of £100 on 2 horses, one at 1.7 and the other at 5.0, how many ticks does the selection have to move for me to be able to green-up for £10?'.

 

Well, if I back at 1.7 I stand to win £70. So I need to lay £110 at 1.45 to be able to green for £10, so 25 ticks. Now 1.7 is 59% in betting terms, and 1.45 is 68%, so thats a difference of 9%.

 

If I back at 5.0 I stand to win £400. So I need to lay £110 at 4.4 to green for £10, so 6 ticks. Now 5.0 is 20% in betting terms, and 4.4 is 23%, so that's a difference of 3%.

 

Now it's only 17:52, but I'm yawning, tired, and I haven't got a fucking clue what all that means, but perhaps tomorrow I'll have a look at it and see if it makes any sense, or if it is a useful or shite piece of information ... fuck knows!

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 07

 

Felt as though I was getting back up to speed today. Didn't make a lot of profit but traded 23 races with only 1 loss, so I feel like I'm slowly beginning to get to grips with the pre-race game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 08

 

Cracked on again today and finally won a few quid instead of the relatively small amounts that I've been getting of late.

 

 

 

November 09

 

Already had to fuck about this morning going to the bank, post office, chemist, etc. If you're driving then it takes fucking ages to get parked anywhere these days. We're becoming a nation governed by zillions of rules. Next time you go out for a drive take a look at how many fucking signs there are everywhere, most of them telling you what you cannot do, don't turn left, don't park here, go straight ahead, fuck off out of the bus lane even if it means that you block the traffic coming the other way etc. And there's probably some little spotty twat sitting on the other end of all these cameras waiting to send you an £80 fine if you fart too loudly. Bollox the lot of it!! So I'm already a bit knackered and it's only 11:23, so I'll have to play carefully today.

 

... well I should have played carefully, but .... dropped a bollock late on at Wolves when I thought something was holding on for 3rd when it was actually only holding on for 4th .... DOH! This type of balls-up has happened to me in the past when I've been tired. Not matter how hard you try it's just not wise to try and play when you feel knackered. Got a bit back later on and I'm only really aiming to get around £1500 this month, as it's my first month playing from home, so that shouldn't be a problem.

 

 

 

 

 

November 10 - 96.0kg

 

Jumped on the spinning bike for 20 minutes this morning as I'm turning into a real fat bastard. Aiming to get down to below 93.0kg by the end of November.

 

 

 

 

 

November 11

 

Another typical wanky Sunday in November.

 

 

 

 

 

November 12

 

Had a fucking hopeless effort at IR today and actually laid 3 winners in the fucking place market!! Fucking useless!! However, my pre-race trading seems to be improving, so that may keep me from going skint!

 

 

 

 

 

November 13

 

Bounced back today with a few small wins. Adjusted my Gruss IR stakes down to £55 per click as they're a bit out of sync with my pre-race stakes and it's a bummer if you nick a few small wins pre-race to then go and blow it with one click IR.

 

 

 

 

 

November 14

 

Had a mixture of babysitting and laying some block paving this morning! Ended up darting in and out of the garden between races to check my cement, so the day was a bit dis-organised to say the least. Nibbled a few more quid, so will now have to start to become a bit more aggressive to ramp up the winnings back to a normal level.

 

 

 

 

 

November 15

 

Decided that I had to get back down to the gym today as once again I'm becoming a fat bastard. Got myself ready only to find that I had a flat battery! I was all set for action, so I just jumped on the bike and cycled. The weather was quite crisp so had a nice 20 minute or so ride then beat the shite out of the bag in the gym. Missed a few of the early races and didn't get to see any of the Irish racing because of the overlaps. Nicked a few quid ...

 

 

 

 

November 16

 

Really enjoyed playing today as I felt that I was making good progress with my pre-race trading, although I lost maybe £30 I felt as though my analysis was improving, and where I made mistakes I knew exactly what I had done wrong. I'm pretty confident that I can start to make it pay over the next few weeks.

 

 

 

A busy end to October

Well October has seen quite a few changes in the IR market. The slow down of the SIS pictures and the associated severe lack of liquidity in the place market has really made it a hell of a lot harder to win nice sums of cash. Luckily I did kinda see this coming (back in March I think I mentioned on this Blog that the IR game would possibly implode at some point in the future). So now I'm really starting to focus on the pre-race markets. By moving into these markets I'll no longer have to worry about paying a premium for the SIS and TurfTV pics and I'll also be moving into a market (the pre-race win market) where I believe that the liquidity is still good enough for me to make cash. OK, I know that some tracks can be light in pre-race cash, but I still think that there's more than enough to meet my meagre requirements.

Accordingly I've beem immersing myself in the content of Jack Birkhead's training site 'Trading for Freedom'. I've already whizzed through his 'Journey' videos and they're great. I've traded a few races (with mixed results!), but now I'm pretty sure that I'm beginning to get the basic hang of how these markets work. Jack and Caan also presented a really interesting Webinar in the week and I found this really useful. The guys will be running these on a weekly basis and I think that they will be a great success, with like-minded traders meeting-up once a week for advice/chat/inspiration etc. PS Im not financially involved in any way with Jack's website, I just mention it as I think that it's a great and pretty unique way in which to learn a trade.

So I've been having a bit of a shop around on Gumtree, eBay and Amazon and my home setup now looks like this:

I have 2 Viewsonic 23in LED monitors attached to an Acer slimline running an i5 processor with 6gb of RAM. My SKY+ HD box (for ATR and RUK) is connected to a HDMI splitter which sends one signal to my TV and another to my left monitor using a HDMI to DVI converter. Sound comes from the audio outputs on my Sky box to speakers on my desk. All of this is completed by an emergency bottle of Hoegaarden (only to be opened in times of stress and/or excitement!).

As from the start of November I'll be trading from home. Obviously it's going to be a steep learning curve and I'm going to have to see if I can combine a bit of IR with a bit of pre-race trading. I would imagine that I'll pre-race trade on the SIS/ATR meetings and see if I can still nick a bit of IR money using RUK.

You never know, I might become the new Adam Heathcote!

Mid October .... and the wheels have come off!

What the fuck is happening to the IR markets eh? I just took a look at my P&L for September and October to date and I nearly fell off my chair! I knew that things were getting tough but fuck me it's becoming near on impossible to win anything. One noticeable change is that the SIS pics have slowed down even further and there are reports that we're as much as 5 seconds behind the live action at certain tracks. In my book that makes IR playing pretty much a non-starter on a lot of tracks, unless you know the form like the back of you hand. The only way to try and compensate for this delay is to know the general running styles of certain horses in each race an to play relatively early, as the thieving track mongrels generally wait to the later stages of each race, where they feast like rabid hyenas over the scraps of money still in the market.

Therefore I've decided to try a few days playing from home using BF live pictures and Racing UK, with more of an emphasis on using smaller stakes and playing earlier in the race in an effort to get involved before the market gets raped by the above mongrels. This means I'll have to get a Racing Post subscription on the go and start watching some of the race replays again, although as mentioned previously I don't want to spend too much time watching the replays as it's as boring as fuck. I'll also be making much more of an effort in the pre-race market so that I don't have to be dependant on the fast SIS and TurfTV pics.
It's still early days in my pre-race career, but I think that I've already learnt a lot just by playing a few races in the past few weeks, mostly what NOT to do! I know that there are a few good pre-race judges out there who make it pay, so that gives me the confidence that it can be done. I've just joined 'Trading for Freedom' which is Jack Birkhead's new training site. I know Jack from a few years back and I have to say that his pre-race training videos are great. I'm going through these at the moment and they should fast-track me into the pre-race markets. All I'll be looking to do for the next few weeks at least is to nick a few quid while I'm trying to learn the game.