Thursday, 22 September 2016

Gone AWOL!



I must admit that although it happens very seldom I do sometimes have periods where I fail to update this blog on a regular basis.




I'm at that age where I've hit a mid-life crisis and trying to sort out personal issues has meant that the blog has taken a back seat for a while. I've also had quite a few days off, mostly to take advantage of the fine late summer weather that we have been experiencing.

The trading has been a bit hit and miss due to new fluctuations in the markets but the key here is to recognise when these happen, what is happening and how to take advantage of the way in which the markets have altered.

I'm going to make a conscious effort to resume the light-hearted theme of this blog which may take some effort initially as I've been really fucked off, depressed and at sometimes quite fucking sad over the last few weeks (sure signs of manic depression).




Hopefully I can get back to 'normal' and start posting more pictures of me on the piss and recounting the weird and wonderful things that usually happen when I'm out there in the twilight zone ... better known as Ramsgate after midnight!



31/08

-£5.11 ... fuck know's what happened but looking at my results I was up and down, much like my current mood swings, like a whores drawers!



01/09

+£86.97. For some reason I only managed to trade 20 races ...



02/09

+£263.02. It's always good to look back after a few weeks thinking that you had a bad month and then see that on at least one day you had a good result! However, if truth be told I nicked £200 in the first race of the day in the place market!



03/09

+£184.59. I only traded 25 races today and had to wait until the very last race before I had a good result and managed to nick over £100, once again in the place market! Kind of like Man Utd when they always managed to score a winner in extra time ... bastards!



04/09

-£5.93. I only traded 15 races today so it must have been a Sunday?



05/09

+£26.13. I only traded 9 races today .... fuck knows why, I cant remember!



06/09

-£0.73. When your mind is elsewhere then your results will always suffer unfortunately ...



07/09

+£3.94. I think that I went to the beach, came home and traded 1 race at Kempton!



08/09

Fuck knows what I did today but I didn't trade ....



09/09

+£83.51. I only traded 17 races and was probably glad to get some sort of profit after a lean few days.



10/09

+£134.99. The number of races that I have traded recently on a daily basis has dropped, only 22 today, but I suppose that we are now approaching that time of year where the number of races per day drops to a much lower figure than in the peak of the summer.



11/09 - 14/09

It was time for a much needed break down on the coast. I had 2 days by myself in the sun and then the missus joined me, the sun got even hotter and I drank even more and got smashed on the Tuesday (the hottest day of the year?) had an argument with the missus and then decided to go swimming in the sea after consuming at least 8 pints at lunchtime! It wasn't the best breast stroke or front crawl ever witnessed!




I was so pissed that it took me a few attempts to actually get from being in 2 ft of water back onto dry land and I stacked it a few times in the sea. When I finally made it back onto the beach I fell over again trying to put my shorts on, rolled about like a pissed fool and managed to get a huge bruise on my ass and back! Not funny and definitely not clever!



15/09

+£187.87. Recouped a small percentage of what I spunked over the last few days down on the coast!



16/09

+£159.45. 18 races traded with only one small loss so the binge drinking session must have done me some good?



17/09

+£167.00. Another OK day to keep the ball rolling ...



18/09

+£16.36. Fuck knows what happened today as I only traded 9 races?



19/09

+£120.24. Today could have been so much better as I managed to lose the best part of £100 in the last 4 races of the evening doh!



20/09

+£85.67. One decent win saved the day today ...



21/09

More nice weather today so another day down on the beach.



22/09

+£332.12. Normal service has been resumed ...






I quite fancied a drink after the racing in the evening and smashed into 3 bottles of Franziskaner that I had chilling in the fridge. These put me in the zone but when I went back to the fridge at around midnight there wasn't a beer to be seen! The only solution was to cycle to the local 24 hour shop. Now obviously their range of wheat beer was non-existent so I decided to cycle the 3 miles to Tesco to source some Hoegaarden. Flying along on your bike at 00:30 in the morning with no lights isn't a particularly good idea but fuck I felt faster than Chris Froome. It's only when I got off the fucker at Tesco that I realised how pissed I already was! I stumbled about the deserted isles and came away with 2 bottles of Hoegaarden and a packet of scones. I literally flew back home, only drank half a bottle but managed to eat most of the scones and finally hit the sack at about 02:30.



23/09

+£11.94. I traded 25 races today and never really got going. As some of you may have noticed the markets have been changing on a daily basis and that means that what works one day does not work the next. The key here is to identify when this happens and alter your style to suit. On days like this I am usually in more of a 'damage limitation' mode as you can often find yourself sticking to the same old strategy hoping that things will change during the day. It's only at the end of the day that you realise that maybe you should have quickly switched to plan B when you first noticed that things weren't 'normal'.



24/09 

+£150.84. I was off to a flyer but then trundled through the remainder of the day without really making much progress.



25/09

+£68.71. Wank Sunday.


It's 03:30 on a Sunday morning so I have a bit of time on my hands! Here's how I generally approach a days' racing:

  • If you have the time then try and get a rough idea of the usual running styles of each horse in every race. Now this takes time I must admit, but if you do have this time then it's worth the effort as you can go into each race with a rough idea of how you think that the race will be played out. If you don't have the time for this then start by concentrating on maybe the first and second in the market and have an idea if you want you entry point to be a back or a lay.
     
  • I don't have any set targets in terms of profit. You have to take whatever you get without constantly checking your P&L
     
  • Concentrate on 3-4 horses each race. Find those with marked running styles such as leaders, hold up horses, strong travellers, good/bad jumpers, etc.
     
  • Have an idea in your mind what you expect to happen in the early stages of each race and how you expect the market to react.
     
  • Look at the market in the last few seconds before the off, concentrating on those horses that you have selected above, and note any strength or resistance. For example, if you are thinking of laying a hold-up horse because it will be slow away and at the back of the field yet there is strength for it in the market then that is probably not a good idea. This indicates that people know it's a hold-up horse and therefore even if it is slow away the price may not drift and that could leave you in a world of pain. The same applies for potential leaders, etc. If you think that one is going to spring out of the stalls and lead all of the way and yet there is opposition in the market seconds before the off then it's probably not a good idea to B2L even if it does lead early.
     
  • When do finally do take a position then you need to know how you expect the market to move and in what time frame. Let's say that you want to lay a potential slow starter at 5.0 if it misses the break. If you do indeed get matched early then you now need to have a plan of how you are going to exit your position with the maximum profit. If you have laid it for £50 at 5.0 then you may be thinking of backing it back in chunks of £5 a time at anywhere between 7.0 and 10.0. If the market moves in your favour (and obviously you are expecting this to happen pretty quickly) you can maybe fire in a few back bets at good positions in the market. You then expect these to be quickly taken and therefore your green zone is expanded. I tend to like to get to a position where I have phased out most of my initial stake, in this case £50, and then you can manage the remainder accordingly. In this case if your selection is falling out the back of the telly then there is no need to hit the green button as you want to take the maximum profit.
     
  • If the market doesn't move how you expected then get the fuck out of there ASAP without hesitation. If it means taking a red just take the fucker!


If anyone has any particular questions then please let me know.

I'll try and start recording some videos and stick them up here ....

Happy trading!


When you go to bed at 20:00 and wake up at 04:00 then you just have to pick up the guitar and twang ...







26/09

+£59.99. Wank Monday!



27/09

Ayr abandoned today so couldn't be bothered ...



28/09

+£70.47. I only traded a handful of races today ...



29/09 - 30/09

I went house hunting and drinking in Ramsgate. There's plenty of cheap property down there and I may be able to buy something dependant upon how much we can get for our gaff in London.  Fingers crossed ...







20 comments:

  1. Welcome back)
    It can be quite isolated sat trading everybody needs a blow out.
    Best blog on the net
    Bouch

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Cheers Bouch

      It's good to be back :)

      Dave

      Delete
  2. Good to see you back blogging Dave-o. Keep your chin up old son and keep powering on with the cycling and training over Winter, need to release those endorphins for the next 6 months of rubbish weather. Failing that, Hoegaarden is a suitable alternative!! Take care matey

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hiya Steve

      Good to hear from you mate and hope that all is well at your end. Yep now is the time to get back on the bike and down the gym in preparation for Spring next year!

      Dave

      Delete
  3. Good to see you back again mate. You've maybe realised, but there's many of us that follow your blog to keep our own moral up at many times.
    I think this can be a lonely game at times, so if you're feeling down I get that one. Not to add, this is probably a tough trading period in the year, that doesn't help the moral. I totally get one of your points above though - when you feel bad about external issues, it so often affects the trading results. Seems mad, because you think 'how is that happening' when they should be unrelated. But, can tell you from hard personal experience, my worst results and runs have come when I'm really bothered or down (or some other negative emotion) about something completely unrelated to the bleedin markets!
    So, keep the spirits up and hope we can both keep the progress healthy!
    Stu.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hiya Stu

      Yep onwards and upwards mate!

      The external issue thing is very common. Back in the Exchange days whenever someone had something on their mind, which was quite often women problems, then they would always struggle with their trading and I saw quite a few people go from winning on a daily basis to struggling as their mind was elsewhere.

      So time to get back on track ...

      Dave

      Delete
  4. Whoop! there he is Whoop! there he is! great to see you back Dave. I get depressed when you dont blog so please keep it up your my life blood! The thing with depression is just say to yourself in the dark days "it will get better", next thing you know your back on track and loving life again

    http://funnyandhumorous.com/funny-mid-life-crisis.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi OBT

      Yep it's good to get back to the blogging. i really enjoy it as it acts as my own personal diary and if I can help other along the way or provide a laugh or 2 then that's great!

      Dave

      Delete
  5. Dave, love the Guitar playing, The Wall, got to be for me the best Floyd Album. Delighted you are back blogging, as you are entertaining and educating a few of us. All the best Pal.

    Simon.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Simon

      Thanks for that! Once I get my shit sorted out then hopefully I'll have more time to practice the guitar and annoy the new neighbours.

      Cheers - Dave

      Delete
  6. Glad to see you back Dave. I have found your blog inspiring. I have been at it a year and a half now both pre race and in play. I am just starting to put some consistency into my game. My biggest losses are still in play and its normally on a race under a mile or when I turn into a greedy cunt! I too have been blogging my daily results inspired by you. I might make it public one day but its horrific reading up to now!!! Keep blogging mate and I hope your health improves. Depression is not a nice thing. Its important to find positive stuff in life

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hi THT

    Cheers!

    That's great to hear that you are achieving that consistency as that is probably the most important factor in this game.

    Yep, the shorter races are somewhat harder to play as it's very difficult to effectively manage a position when you have 8 or more horses belting along at top speed in a 5F race. In those shorter races if I don't have a position very early in the race then I immediately forget the win market and switch to the place market to either lay or back one late on.

    As for the depression, well it's the sudden mood swings that have me by the bollox at the moment. Hopefully it's just been brought about by my recent woman problems and i can spring back to some sort of normality once I have all of that shit sorted?

    Cheers - Dave.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hey Dave !

    Very interesting and useful information ! Cheers ! And keep going ;)

    ReplyDelete

  9. hello :) Dave is very good to review your writing. as to the downswing that sometimes raisins .... I focus on things of life :) and come from there these videos would be a great help for sure. get well

    ReplyDelete

  10. hello :) Dave is very good to review your writing. as to the downswing that sometimes raisins .... I focus on things of life :) and come from there these videos would be a great help for sure. get well

    ReplyDelete
  11. Thanks for the brief trading guide Dave, I'm doing well with pre race now, just want to leverage my profits in running and this is very helpful. All the best with your trading and personal life and I look forward to many great blog posts to come.

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