Friday, 17 June 2016

Time to Crack Open the Factor 50?


I really did believe that I would be sitting in the sun slurping  a few beers by this time of year, but alas the typical English summer weather has thwarted that plan! Every morning I race to the PC to view the Met Office, Metcheck and weather-forecast websites (like the optimistic fool that I am) in the hope that I'm greeted by news of an impending heatwave, or at least a string of 2 or 3 nice sunny days. Unfortunately the first half of June has yielded fuck all in the terms any half-decent weather. So imagine my surprise and delight when I checked the forecast this morning ...





Next Thursday onwards could well be sunny! Now we all know that the met office are 100% super reliable in their ability to predict the weather but just to make sure I thought that I'd better double check elsewhere ...




So Metcheck are along the same lines and ...




... weather-forecast.com seem to agree.

This year I think that I'll setup base in Ramsgate and jump on an early train to Folkestone with the bike and cycle back along the coast and over the white cliffs of Dover.




It's probably about 30 miles and mostly off-road, with 1 or 2 hills, so all I have to do now is plan some sort of route and also try to identify early opening boozers along the way!

I'm currently hovering around the 82.0kg mark so would love to shed 3 kilos over the next few days so that I can start in Folkestone at around 79.0kg. If I carb delete over the next 5-6 days then I can lose some fat and then have a much needed re-feed/alcoholic top up day or 2 down by the coast along with some bike cardio!

As for the trading, well is it just me or are some of the in-running markets almost unplayable because of the super low liquidity? (as mentioned in my last post). I've noticed recently that some of the weaker markets have practically no money on either side of the ladder, I'm talking literally fivers and tenners here and there, which means that if you're entering with a 3 figure stake then a) you're going to get matched for peanuts and b) if you get it wrong then you can't get out and you are fooked!

A few weeks back I made an off the cuff remark about providing some in-running training. Surprisingly I had quite a few people ask for more details. To be honest I haven't really given it much thought but if enough people want the training, and are willing to pay a lot of cash for it, then I might do something.




15/06

+£72.71. I traded 29 races today and only had 2 losses, however one of those was for over £100 which kinda put a dampener on the day doh!



16/06

+£244.99. A real solid day of trading today. No big wins but just small wins here and there and the total soon mounts up. A few more days like today would be most welcome in order to boost the beer token fund for next weeks jaunt to the coast ... weather permitting.



17/06

+£270.04. A good steady day with a couple of nice wins in the evening.



18/06

+£207.64. Another steady day with plenty of small wins here and there ...



19/06

I couldn't be bothered today so went to the pub instead!



20/06

+£312.55. I couldn't be arsed with just Southwell in the afternoon but then got lucky in one of the early races @ Wolves and won a carpet. Apart from that it was wank!



21/06

+£9.09. Only managed to trade 23 races today and they were mostly pants!



22/06

+£120.41. A bit better than yesterday but only 27 races traded with one loss and 26 small wins ...



23/06

+£71.52. I only managed to trade 22 races and it was slim pickings all day ...



24/06 - 26/06

I couldn't hold out any longer! I was out of bed just before 04:00 and managed to catch the 06:10 from Ramsgate to Folkestone. The weather was great but the hills were fucking steep in some parts!




Fortunately the beer was plentiful and sooper chilled!!  I ended up having a great time and cycled through some beautiful countryside and alongside some nice beaches. Most enjoyable!!



28/06

+£193.34. First day back from my 4 day break and I only traded 20 races so was happy with the result.



29/06

+£75.52. Pretty much a fruitless day of small wins alongside equally sized losses. In fact my profit was made pretty much in the last hour of the evening.



30/06

+£269.11. A good finish to the month with some steady trading throughout the day and a good effort in the evening racing as well.










12 comments:

  1. Hi Dave great blog and very nice results, could u answer me something please, do u do the homework before every race(if so wht do u look for and where) or do trade as it comes, and about that in running training I'm in and I hope I can afford it thx in advance. Dan

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Daniel

      Sorry for the delay in my response but see my reply below and hopefully that may help :)

      Dave.

      Delete
  2. Hi Dave!

    Enjoying your blog!

    I have just switched from traditional backing of horses, have been finding Back to Lays.

    I only have a small start bank but would like to venture into trading more races. Especially at weekends and evenings as wirk full time!

    My question is pretty similar to the one above, do you look at each race you are going to trade beforehand and make a decision what is going to happen?

    I too am on the road to shredmania! Started at 13 stone 7 and now weigh in at 11.4 st.

    Have used intermittent fasting, weight training (strength not reps) and set my calories to bodyweight in lbs x12 to create a deficit.

    Well done with your weight loss!

    All the best,
    Paul.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Paul

      Thanks!

      Yes I tend to go into each race with an idea of what is going to happen. Obviously you can be much more prepared if you are familiar with the usual running styles of each horse. However, if there is little form to assess or if I have no notes (due to laziness this year) then I tend to focus on maybe 1 or 2 runners at the start of each race.

      As an example I will try and back early paced types (as long as the market is not showing a resistance). For example I'll back-to-lay a leader expecting it to shorten pretty quickly, but if it doesn't then I exit ASAP. Or maybe I will look to lay a short priced runner if it is slow away etc.

      I like to keep my liabilities as low as possible and my potential profit as high as possible so I prefer to lay short ones and I don't mind backing some at 1000 if I think that the price will shorten.

      I also find that one main factor is entering and exiting the market at the correct time. You want to be in as quickly as possible but equally you want to be out ASAP if the market doesn't move as you expect but you want to hold a good position for as long as possible if the market moves in your favour.

      I find that if I don't have a position after the first furlong of most races then I just move immediately to the place market where I am more of a backer/layer depending on how I see the race unfold. Once again I will be looking to lay short ones (usually under evens) or back those that I think are going well. These are normally pure backs or lays as there is much less opportunity to trade in the low liquidity place markets.

      That's a cracking weight loss and i might give that system a go :)

      Hope this helps - Dave.

      Delete
    2. Hi Dave!

      Cheers for the reply!

      Have you seen the Betfair ATM method? That is about watching the odds in the win market then switching over to the place market to back the in running Fav. Not tried it as do not know if it will work!

      I thought about maybe picking a meeting and looking at each race and coming up with an angle of entry for each race and see how that goes?

      How do you operate in the place market?

      You will also have to let me know about that training, might be able to persuade my mrs it's a good idea! (Probably not )

      I have followed a workout program made specially for shredding and building/maintaining muscle whilst losing fat.

      If you have an email address I will send you it.

      Take care
      Paul.

      Delete
    3. Hi Paul

      I stick to the tried and tested technique of making it as simple as possible :) I agree that looking at particular races and coming up with an angle in is the best way to operate. So decide when you are going to try and enter the market (I'd suggest as early as possible and even pre-race if you have a strong opinion), at what price, at what time, what you expect to happen and what you are then going to do depending upon the movement in the market.

      As an example in the 14:05 @ MR today I have a note (it may be well old) that says that Val Darc likes to lead. Now if I see it lining up at the front and it indeed looks as though it is going to lead and the market is strong on the back side then I will back at the off, if possible, at the current price or very close. I then expect the price to shorten. If it does then I put in several small lay bets at smaller prices to phase out my position. If it doesn't immediately start to shorten then I will exit ASAP. So I pretty much concentrate solely on that runner.

      If I get no joy from that effort then I switch to the place market and pretty much back or lay at close to evens. It's a simple strategy ... if you think something is not going to be placed then lay at 2.0 (obviously if the price is available) and vice versa. You will probably only get matched on a few races during the day but it's a very simple way to start and if you don't make a profit (however small) at doing this then you're probably no good at race reading lol.

      email is the_stow@hotmail.com

      Cheers - Dave.

      Delete
    4. Cheers Dave!

      I cannot find that file bugger knows where it's gone!

      My mate has got it still so will get him to send me it again!

      Do you have live footage when trading? I just use the radio at the moment.

      At what stage do you decide to back in the place market? Final furlong?

      Cheers!
      Paul.

      Delete
    5. My mate has sent me the link so will forward it to you asap!

      Just got to get the chimps to bed!

      Delete
  3. Hi Dave

    It did help lol need to stop checking the phone between races
    and put a bit more effort on the forms lol

    cheers
    dan

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Dave

    I realise that you're in a very tumultuous time at present so I dont suppose this is the best time to ask. Here goes anyway: would you consider training me? My situation is I'm 60 I am stuck in a really shit night shift office job and am gradually falling through the cracks. I know that to you sums of money like 90-100 quid per day trading might not seem much but to me they seem like a total dream! I would be more than happy to earn that kind of money and it would get me out of my miserable life and able to exist without a boss (apart from 'er indoors) breathing down my neck all the time! Let me know if you would consider training me and if so what sort of price you would require. All the best mate and hope things work out soon for you. Cheers Martin

    ReplyDelete
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