January Analysis

Well, that's January done and dusted! ... well nearly.

One of the reasons for this blog is so that I can keep a track on my progress through 2012. So, how have I done this month, what have I achieved and where do I need more work?

I have to face the fact that on some days I will lose. Now my worst day this month was actually on my birthday! I lost £305.29 and felt a bit down in the dumps. I backed Tinshu to place at 2.06 (finished 4th and then came 2nd two weeks later in a higher grade race), layed Water Garden (probably not one of my best bets having seen the replay, finished 4th to scrape a place) and layed Al Freej on the AW without knowing anything about the horse. Now I has a fantastic evening and the loss became so insignificant that it was soon forgot.

From February onwards I really need to be putting at least £600 on the line every day. This doesn't mean that I should steam in and back or lay everything in sight, it just means that I need to realise that a £600 loss on any day is not going to effect my yearly profit. I need to realise that if I don't play in this sort of league then £200K will be out of reach. I need to be clicking with this in mind, and going in double strong where appropriate. I now have the added advantage in that my AW notes are coming together nicely and my subscription to Timeform is giving me an easy and quick way to identify which horses to be with and those to be against.

My preparation each day has vastly improved over what I was doing towards the end of last year. I have been getting into the office well before 09:00 on most days and I've used this time to study form using the Racing Post video replays. I've also been spending 20 minutes or so each morning in the steam room or sauna where I can relax and prepare myself mentally for the day ahead. This works really well and now I'll be visualising really moving my game up to another level. I'm excited just thinking about it!

I must admit that I'm still not perfectly relaxed when trading, although my concentration levels have improved. So once again I need to work on this and break away from my old cautious style of playing. Once I have achieved this then I'll really start to see the profits that I know I can achieve.

I am gradually changing my style from being almost exclusively a layer to being a backer as well. This is progressing at a slow pace, but once again I'll be looking to really get stuck-in to more backing in the coming weeks.

I've decided, for the time being, that I will put the football trading on the back burner. I feel that my time will be best spent studying form and working on ways to improve my confidence and aggressiveness. I'm also still in the process of compiling a list of the strengths and weaknesses of some of the traders that I know ... and there's one or 2 interesting facts that I discovered and will publish shortly.

And don't forget ... 'see it ... click it'.

Cheers - Dave.

Ramsgate

This is where I'll be moving to in 2013. It's a fantastic little harbour, especially when the weather is like it was on this morning. Had a bit of a hangover at the time but a stroll along the jetty followed by a full English did the trick and we were soon back on the Stella!

Best viewed on the YouTube link above where you can view it in 720p HD.

I think that it's a great little town and it's also pretty close to Deal where you can get this ...

Cheers - Dave.

Daily Journal

When it comes to trading and betting I find that I am still very risk adverse. I think that I've always been this way in all aspects of life. Nobody likes the feeling of getting something wrong, but some people handle this better than others. The easiest way of avoiding being wrong in this game is not to trade at all. You'll never be wrong but you'll make fuck all!

One of my biggest objectives is to trade in a less risk adverse manner and to do this consistently, even when losses occur. I think that I'm pretty good at dealing with losses already, and I don't beat myself up when I get a loss, unless I've made aright ball-up of things. However I'm still working on the 'see it ... click it' approach. Once I get that nailed then I'll be much more effective. To win big at this game you have to be prepared to take a few hits along the way. A bit like boxing I suppose. Think of great fighters like Muhammad Ali, Manny Pacquiao and Frank Bruno ... they were all great, but they all took a few shots along the way. They never gave up or cried when they got hit did they?

So I thought that I'd stick up daily journal covering my days between now and the end of January. I'll be recording how I get on both money wise and emotionally, and if I take a kick in the bollox along the way then I'll let you know about it. It will be interesting to see how many times my risk adverse mentality kicks-in and how I deal with it, and if it does I'll be able to see at the end of January how much this costs me. We'll see how it goes, and as long as I can get a good week then I'll be looking to increase my stakes and aggressiveness at the end of the month, maybe even before.

PS I'm also going to lose some weight this week! So here we go:


Monday 23rd January 2012 - 96.4kg

• had a good session in the gym and now I'm going to have a cuppa, study some AW form and trade the early greyhounds.
   
• we only have 2 meetings today, Wetherby and Wolverhampton, so it'll be a case of taking whatever comes along. So I'm not going to shout and scream if I can only nick £50, although I might stay late and trade the evening greyhounds as well.
   
• nicked a few quid early doors on the horses and greyhounds but just lost £200 laying 'Mission Complete' in the 14:15 at Wetherby. Didn't seem like a bad bet at the time and could have taken a green but felt comfortable with the position. That jockey Mr A Berry gets me every time!
   
• just had a quick look at tomorrows cards and 'Opus Maximus' and 'Veroon' (owes me money from it's last run!) could be interesting runners in the 16:30 at Kempton as 'Tewin Wood' should take them along at a tasty pace. I'll be taking a closer look at this race this evening in between the greyhound racing. I think I'll be looking to be a backer at Leicester as the track players will be there in their millions and I've found it pretty much impossible to lay anything there recently.
   
• well it's 21:50 and I'm finished for the day. Ended up £174.53 down. There were a few half chances today but nothing that really caught my eye. It goes like that some days. Let's see what Tuesday brings!
  
   

Tuesday 24th January 2012 - 94.3kg
 

• having a little trade of the early greyhounds and made a schoolboy error of trying to back my way out of a bad trade. Of course the mutt lost and I did more cash than just taking the red. What a tosser! Think I'll just go and flush my head down the loo (and if you've seen the state of the bogs around here that's not a nice experience ... not that I've ever tried it before of course).
   
• see it ... click it!
   
• just backed 'Warden Bond' for a place in the 14:30 at Kempton. A strong galloping sort, but for some reason the jokey thought he was on a Suzuki and never got it prominent at all, hoping instead that it would suddenly sprout an extra leg in the final 2F.
   
• backed 'Mottley Crew' over 5F at Southwell when it jumped and was prominent. Stays 6F at Southwell so was well pleased at backing one early and actually winning some cash. It's funny that it can sometimes seem like weeks since you've had a winner (unfortunately for my Dad it's more like months) ... come on Dad,  pick up the phone and get stuck in!!
   
• anyone for 'Plum Pudding'? Sometimes you get days where you're just a lucky fucker. The 15:40 at Leicester, 'Toby Belch' starts slowly and doesn't seem to be too keen in a 3 mile chase in the soft. The price drifts and then I spot good old Toby coming back on the snaff, so I take advantage and back him at 3.0 for a place. I'm feeling well pleased as now he's looking well happy and jumping like Pegasus. Strangely, though, his price isn't shortening, in fact no one wants to back him. On closer inspection I now realise that I have in fact backed 'Plum Pudding' who is slowly disappearing out the back on the TV. Bearing in mind we have 50in widescreen plasmas that's a fucking long way behind! So I sit there for the next mile of the race watching him struggle around, almost tailed off. I don't even bother watching the last few furlongs as the pain is like a hot knife to the testicles. Then, as I cast my eyes to the screen here he comes! Good old 'Plum Pudding', sprinting as fast as 'Choisir', leaps the last like a gazelle and romps into third place! What price for the Grand National??
   
• ended up £223.21 up and completely cream crackered!
  
   

Wednesday 25th January 2012
 

• studying the AW form and about to have a cuppa. Today should be a bit better as we should have some more opportunities with 2 RUK meetings and Lingfield on the AW. Let's see how it goes.
   
• up and down like a yo-yo at the moment, but definitely playing more aggressively. All I need now is a few winners! (or losers if I'm laying 'em).
   
• it's 19:30 and there's one more left at Kempton. I'm knackered and the A13 has come to a grinding halt so I'll have to give it 30 minutes and play a few dog races before I head off home and hit the sack.
   
• ended up £271.60 up and the A13 was as clear as a bell. Got stuck into a few more pages of 'The Daily Trading Coach', a must read for anyone serious about their trading. Night night ...
  
   

Thursday 26th January

• feeling on top of my game and having a good look at Kemptons card tonight. Might have to tread cautiously though and not get too excited!
   
• it's been a tough day already, and it's only 15:31! Patience is the key. Opportunities will be along soon ... (I'm an optimistic bloke).
   
• my concentration has been so bad today. I've missed the start of at least 3 races by fucking about doing other things, like watching the poker WSOP on ESPN. That's a really unprofessional approach. I'm not going to win money watching the telly.
   
• well pretty much a non-event today. Concentration levels were poor and I never really got into the groove. The markets at Kempton were also shite, so even though we picked a few good bets the markets presented no opportunities in-play as they were so weak. The final tally was a small loss of £15.82. A fair card tomorrow so maybe I'll be able to nick a few quid and boost the monthly total to something a bit more respectable.
  
   

Friday 27th January

• finally got around to subscribing for the Timeform in-play cards and they've already saved me a bundle. Will be interesting to see how I change my plan of attack over the sticks now that I'm armed with a bit of information as to how these beasts normally run. I'm already experiencing the conflict of what the form is telling me against what my eyes are telling me .... should be an interesting day!
   
• this Timeform service is a real eye opener, especially as I know nothing about jumping form. To coin a phrase from one of our well known money making machines 'I feel like a dog with 2 cocks'.
   
• you've got to be in it to win it. Well I'm not in it and I'm not winning it ... what a pillock!
   
• well that was a long good Friday. Won a few shillings at Dundalk which meant that I ended up winning £103.92 on the day. Not a brilliant total for 12 hours work, but felt strangely super motivated for the task ahead and ready to smash it tomorrow.
  
   

Saturday 28th January

• not a lot of smashing going on so far ... typical Saturday for me really.
   
• no AW cards tomorrow so that will give me a chance to study Mondays card at Wolverhampton and now I can stay one day ahead of the racing.
   
• had a dabble on the greyhounds this evening. Only playing £50 a click but managed to scrape a few extra shillings into the P&L. Got a nice cuppa on the brew and then a few more pages of 'The Daily Trading Coach' while contemplating my days winnings of £125.39.

Sunday 29th January

• well it seems as though Jack Frost is about to get busy in February in an attempt to scupper my plans. I'll have to double-up my AW analysis and start smashing into a few as it looks as though we'll lose a few jump meetings this month.
   
• Ffos Llas (impossible to get any cash there) and Leopardstown (almost impossible) today. So it's a case of sitting tight and waiting for a nice opportunity to come along ... and maybe trading a few dog races in-between.
   
• roll on the Summer. Two meetings today of crap racing and to really rub it in the SIS crew have decided that it's time we watched racing from Dortmund. Next week they're showing Yak racing from the Outer Hebrides. This means that we only get snippets of the greyhound coverage, making it harder to trade. And when they do decide to show the greyhounds it's over the top of the horse racing. These sort of days make me wish that I had a 12 gauge auto loader, a 45 long slide with lazer sighting, a phased plasma rifle in 40 watt range and an Ouzi 9mm, althogh that lot would probably cost me more than the £94.93 that I won today .
  
  
   

Monday 30th January

• I once knew a young Portuguese guy who was always saying 'I'm very tired'. I now know how he feels.
   
• all I need is a bigger pair of bollox and I'll be making as much cash as 'The Printer'. I'm going to really have to concentrate on developing a much more aggressive stance as my spineless method of playing is really holding me back, as today's winnings of £81.79 testify.
  
  
   

Tuesday 31st January

• not much to report today. Finished off the month up £142.54 today.
  
   

Surprise Surprise!!

Saturday was a strange day. I didn't have a good day trading and I felt a bit low at the end of the afternoon. However, when I walked into my local bar that evening and cast my eyes on all of my family and best mates I couldn't believe it! My crafty missus had arranged a surprise 50th birthday party. Well I have to say I had a brilliant night. The cast included my fantastic wife, my equally brilliant mum and dad, Marilyn and Chris, my sons, daughters, grandchildren, best mates that I have known since I was a nipper and various other friends and locals. It was great to see all of the people that I love in the same place at the same time. We all had plenty to drink and were entertained by Karaoke stars such as my son on the screaming vocals, DJ John, Tracy and Rob giving us an interesting version of Valerie, John C an X Factor star in the making and finally Jimmy and Tracy with a superb rendition of 'You're The One That I Want'. Hopefully next time Tracy will wear the tight leather leggings! Dancing entertainment was provided, amongst others, by Tina, Jayne, Rob and Don.

The whole night made me realise that there's much more to life than trying to win lots of money (although that's not a bad thing). It's much more important to have a great family and friends and I can count myself really lucky that I do indeed have all of this. So if any of you crafty fuckers are out there reading this, thank you from the bottom of my heart. I had a fantastic time and you all made me realise what is important in life. And to those of you approaching 50 .... beware, I'm going to get you back!

Much love and kisses - Dave.

See it .... CLICK IT!

Just thought I'd add a quick post to remind myself  'see it ... click it'.

It seems quite a few of us I/R players sometimes pause a little bit too long before clicking the button. Now sometimes this means that we miss great opportunities, but sometimes it means we don't lose by being a little too hasty. Thinking about this, it would really simplify things if we could always click immediately every time we spotted one of these opportunities. This will lead to more losers, but also more winners, and if we're any good at this game our winners should still cover our losses. Additionally we wouldn't have to beat ourselves up over missed opportunities. This is also a great way to alleviate the burden of the premium charge as we'd be turning over a greater volume of cash. So from today you won't hear me say 'fuck I missed that one', because if I see it I'm gonna click it.

Cheers - Dave.

And they're off and running ...

Well we certainly are off and running! It's been fairly quiet in terms of the I/R horse racing but I've managed to keep myself really busy. Here's my scribblings from the last few days:

• as promised I've been getting into the office well before 10:00. This has given me plenty of time to study the AW cards and get myself sorted. I must admit that I now feel much more prepared for the day ahead. The only downside is that I do sometimes feel tired towards the end of the day. If I feel myself getting tired then I make sure that I skip a few races or play cautiously to help try and avoid any costly mistakes. When we get to the Summer months then I may have to take a late afternoon snooze in the back of the motor!
   
• at the start of racing on 01/01 I did feel quite nervous. It's really strange as one day out of 365 shouldn't really make a great difference to the result. I suppose that I'd got myself so pumped-up that I felt a bit like Linford Christie at the start of the Olympic 100m final .. apart from the fact that I wasn't sitting here in skin tight lycra proudly displaying my meat and 2 veg.
   
• two words that constantly pop up in my little pad are 'patience' and 'concentration'. I feel that I have made big improvements in both of these areas over the last few weeks, and by frequently reminding myself to concentrate and be patient I'm making sure that I stay in control of my emotions and ultimately make better decisions when required.
   
• as mentioned above there are still occasions where I'm not feeling particularly relaxed. Hiring a personal female massage therapist might be the answer, but failing this I'll just have to work on my relaxation and visualisation techniques. If this fails then I'll just stick a few Hoegaardens in the fridge and pull 'em out when required.
   
• the AW study is beginning to pay dividends. I has a good winner on 02/01 and I'm wondering how I ever played the AW without knowing the form in the past. I'll be looking to play more aggressively on the AW in the coming weeks.
   
• the only downside to studying the form is that it is time consuming and gets fucking boring after a while. However, as I build-up my notes on each horse then it should be easier to maintain these notes in the future. As we move into the Summer and have more flat racing then I'll probably only be focusing on the form of the top 2 or 3 in each race. I want to be in a position so that form wise I know more than anyone else who I am playing against, so when I think this way then I don't mind being bored. The more bored I get the more money I'll make!
   
• I've been avoiding small field NH races on SIS as you're pretty much on a hiding to nothing trying to play behind the track players. I'l let them fight amongst themselves and wait for better opportunities to arrive.
   
• I did have to remind myself at one point to 'smile and have fun'. I think that you can sometimes get bogged down in the seriousness and stress of it all and you forget all of the good things that this lifestyle can bring, like having no twat of a boss to report to, not having to wear a suit (my personal favourite), being able to take days off and going out on the piss whenever you want, staying in bed if you feel like it, the feeling of winning more in a day than what some people earn in a week and more importantly doing something that you enjoy. So smile, be happy, and enjoy the ride!
  
   
• I'm going to video myself trading at some point in the next week as it will be interesting to see what sort of body language I present during races. It should be entertaining. Will I look and operate in a calm and relaxed manner or will I look like a nervous wreck. Should be fun, but don't expect me to post up any videos unless I look like a right Pro.
   

• just got hit by last weeks premium charge and it's like getting kicked in the nuts by a skinhead wearing steel toe capped Dr Martins.

• This is only going to spur me on to win more and maybe risk taking the odd hit in order to negate the PC. Watch this space ...
   

Well Kempton AW this evening and I've had a good study so onwards and upwards. I'm gonna smash it!!!

Cheers - Dave.

Happy New Year 2012!

Happy New Year people and here's wishing you all a healthy and profitable 2012.

I've been working hard over the last few days and have made several observations about my trading. I make notes as my day progresses and here's what I've highlighted:

• I've tweaked my custom back and lay buttons and I'm happy with my setup at the moment. I realise that I'll have to increase these as I progress and ultimately I'll be playing with stakes and/or liabilities of four times greater than what I'm currently using. As mentioned previously a lot of traders find it mentally challenging to up their stakes, even when they are regularly making money. The way that I have managed to do this is by spending a few minutes each morning focusing intently on exactly why I want £200K. When I think about giving myself the opportunity to buy a new house and move to the coast, and how much I want that and how much that means to me,  then I realise that I'm not going to get this by betting stakes that are not appropriate. I also focus on the fact that I've been trading I/R for more than 3 years and I've always made a decent monthly profit. None of us are ever going to make really good money or make significant changes in our lives without stepping outside of our comfort zone and rising to the challenge. Once I've pondered on these facts for a few minutes each morning then I'm ready to smash in!
   
• I've realised that some days will present more opportunities than others. We've recently had a few great days of racing, including tomorrow, but then on Tuesday we only have 2 meetings, Southwell and Ayr. So I'm not going to beat myself up if I don't make a lot on these days when the racing is skinny. This also applies to races where the liquidity is non-existant, like many Irish races. These sort of races would really get on my tits as I couldn't believe that there could be so little money in the market. I'll be making a conscious effort to play each day in a similar fashion, as I know that the profits will even out over the month.
    
• I've been much more patient and relaxed during trading over the last few days and this has really helped me to focus and trade efficiently.
    
• I've set my football staking so that I'll win £50 whenever I trade early in the game or £100 when I play late on in the game. I made small profits on the footty in December so I'll see how it goes in January.
   
• as stated previously I really do believe that I have the AW racing by the bollox. I've only just started compiling my notes but I'm already highlighting some nice selections. One of the problems that I've had in the past is trusting my pre-race analysis. Although I have analyzed races correctly I haven't really profitted from my study as I'm still reticent about backing pre-race or early in a race. I'm going to be focusing all of my spare time on analyzing the AW races and monitoring how my selections get on during January. I realise that I need to play much more aggresively in these races and no doubt this fact will gradually sink in over the next couple of weeks as I rack-up a never ending list of winning/placed horses! I'll be posting some of my selections here (I'm CanaryDwarf), so feel free to take a look and see how I'm doing during January.
   
• during the last few months of 2011 my days were pretty disorganised. As well as trading I also like going to the gym and I'm also learning how to play the guitar. Along with the occasional trip to the pub and the subsequent lie in bed the following morning my days were becoming rushed and I felt that I was struggling to make any progress in any of the above activities, apart from the drinking where I was excelling until I crashed and burned in spectacular fashion after drinking numerous pints of Stella on a pre-Xmas drink with my fantastic mates that I have known from when I was a youngster. So as from today I'll be getting my ass out of bed early doors (alarm is set for 07:00), I'll be off to the gym and in the office by 10:00. I'll also be setting some time aside for my guitar practice, much to the annoyance of my neighbours!
   
• one of the things that I'll be continually reminding myself is to work as hard as possible in 2012. I truly believe that to meet my targets I'm going to have to work really hard and effectively during 2012 and maybe not take so many days off when the days are nice and sunny.
   
• I always try and spend a few minutes just thinking about the positive things in my life before I start trading. Thinking about my great family, the fact that I've been able to trade for a living and the fact that I'm good at what I do, puts me in a really positive mood for the day.
   
• I bought some earplugs to use during trading so that I didn't have to rely on commentaries or get inadvertently swayed by pre-race selections from the 'experts' on Racing UK. They're weird! (yes the earplugs and the 'experts'). Watching a race unfold in pure silence is really good, but it's also quite hard to adjust to without the help of the on-course commentator. I must admit that I gave up after a couple of hours, but I'll try again and see how I get on ... watch this space.
   
• I did dabble in some pre-race trading early in December and it was interesting to see the reults at the end of the month. On most of my losing trades I noticed that I nearly always started with a lay bet. This echoes my natural preference for laying horses I/R. There is obviously some mileage on working on my pre-race trading, but it all comes down to using my time efficiently. I've decided to build on my strengths in the I/R market by spending as much time as possible analyzing the AW cards (as mentioned above) so the pre-race trading will have to take a back seat for the time being.
   
• as mentioned above, the market in some Irish races can be abysmal. This gives the opportunity to become a market maker as opposed to taking prices that are on offer. I may look into setting-up a different Gruss profile where I can market make, although I'd almost certainly being playing against those fucking wanky market making bots that jump in front of you a millisecond after your bet hits the system.
   
• one thing that would often break my concentration was the constant stream of crap being pumped out by Racing UK and especially SIS. To be honest they're not really racing channels are they? Who wants to see racing from South Africa , France or Germany? Even worse is that cartoon racing! Who the fuck wastes their money on that crap? I like greyhound racing but they purposely superimpose it over the horse racing ... and as for those fucking 49'ers!! As you can probably tell this sort of crap really used to get on my tits. However these days I take it with a pinch of salt. I might have the ocasional outburst but I always calm-down before the next race starts.
   
• my knowledge of jump racing form is non-existant and I've been caught out laying a few stayers in the last week. Time to sign-up for the Timeform in-play cards!
   
• I did go into 'protection' mode during the last race of the day on a couple of occasions. I suppose that it's a natural instinct not to want to give back your days profits on the last race, but on both occasions I missed winning bets. I'll give myself a slap with a wet fish next time I feel defensive towards the end of the day!
   
• I did also experience an I/R paralysis of my clicking finger after I had laid a horse over the jumps. My lack of clear thinking caused me not to safeguard my profit and ultimately I lost. I know what I should have done so I'll be better prepared when this scenario happens again in the future.
   
• I'll being looking at my bets on a daily basis to make sure that I'm effectively utilising my bank. I need to make sure that I'm risking £500 'ish per day. As I don't trade in every race I do have days where I've only traded in a few races, so I may need to trade slightly more aggresively when I do get involved.
  
  Well that's it for now. Plenty of good racing tomorrow and the gym is back open so I'm looking forward to beating the fuck out of the heavy bag, having a good steam, getting myself in a positive mood and smashing into the racing.
  
  Happy New Year!
  
  Cheers - Dave.